Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
Going into the final week of the regular season, BYU still has Big 12 championship aspirations, though it will need a little help.
The Cougars no longer control their destiny going into Saturday night’s home finale against Houston (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN), and BYU will need to win and get either a loss from Iowa State or Arizona State to make the Big 12 title game.
Can BYU take care of what it can control when it hosts Houston?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and after two weeks of stress in back-to-back losses, BYU finally got some momentum going.
Will that be enough for BYU to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game, though?
The Deseret News also ran simulations for the other three teams who are currently tied with BYU at 6-2 atop the conference standings — that included simulating Colorado-Oklahoma State, Iowa State-Kansas State and Arizona State-Arizona.
So, did EA Sports College Football 25 have BYU not only winning, but also receiving the help it needed to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship?
Find out as we break down what happened in the simulations.
How the BYU simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented. Harrison Taggart was moved down the depth chart, as he’s gping through concussion protocol.
I also implemented the uniforms both teams will be wearing into the simulation.
BYU is going with navy blue helmets with a navy blue facemask, navy blue jerseys and while pants with navy blue trim.
Houston, meanwhile, is going with an “ice” look — white helmets, white jerseys and white pants.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: Arizona State 28, BYU 23
College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 31, Arizona State 24
My analysis: The simulation and the actual game did not play out the same at all.
In the simulation, BYU built a big lead before holding off Arizona State.
It was the complete opposite in reality, as the Sun Devils stormed out to a 21-0 lead and kept the Cougars from rallying.
How did the simulation between BYU and Houston play out?
Final score: BYU 35, Houston 23
Key sequence: Houston pulled within one score in the final minute of the third quarter, thanks to a Stacy Sneed 7-yard touchdown catch, and the visitors went for two to try and make it a three-point game.
BYU cornerback Marque Collins, though, stopped Sneed on a two-point conversion attempt short of the goal line, and BYU retained a 21-16 lead.
The Cougars then overcame Retzlaff taking a 6-yard sack early in their next possession, as Parker Kingston caught a 36-yard pass on third and 18, moving BYU into Houston territory.
Two plays later, Chase Roberts scored on a 36-yard touchdown catch to make it 28-16, capping an eight-play, 81-yard drive, and BYU successfully held off Houston after that.
How the simulation transpired: BYU’s offense got off to a slow start again, though this time the Cougars defense helped kickstart the scoring.
After both teams struggled to get their offenses going for much of the first quarter, Houston had a drive going deep into BYU territory as the quarter was closing.
Collins, though, intercepted a Zeon Chriss pass at the BYU 24 and returned it 76 yards for a pick-six, giving BYU the 7-0 lead.
On Houston’s ensuing possession, Joseph Manjack IV moved the chains with a 22-yard catch to the BYU 28 on third and 15, though later in the drive, Tyler Batty came up with a key third-down sack to force a 29-yard field goal.
Houston, after an empty BYU possession, then took the lead at 10-7 on an 11-play, 70-yard drive when Mekhi Mews caught a 10-yard touchdown pass with 1:24 until halftime.
BYU, though, after struggling with its two-minute offense in recent weeks, got it clicking against Houston.
Darius Lassiter caught a 28-yard pass to the Houston 48, then a pair of other chunk plays in succession moved BYU inside the Houston 25.
The 86-yard drive that only took 54 seconds was capped by an LJ Martin 9-yard touchdown catch, giving BYU the 14-10 lead at halftime.
The home team pushed it to a two-score lead in the third quarter when BYU forced Houston to punt to start the second half, then moved the ball 65 yards in 10 plays before Martin scored on a 1-yard run.
Martin had carries of 18 and 15 yards earlier in the drive, and the touchdown gave BYU a 21-10 lead.
Houston had an answer, moving the ball on the ground and through the air before Sneed’s previously discussed touchdown made it 21-16, though Houston failed on the two-point attempt that would have made it a three-point game.
BYU’s aforementioned touchdown drive that ended with a Roberts 36-yard touchdown grab made it a two-score game again, though Houston still had life.
It came in the way of a tip-drill touchdown, as Chriss threw long on third and short, and Stephon Johnson came down with a tipped pass and ran in for a 74-yard touchdown pass to make it 28-23.
BYU’s offense, though, was rolling by this point, primarily on the ground. Martin pulled off runs of 12 and 16 yards, along with an 8-yard catch on third and 4, while Hinckley Ropati had a 21-yard run before Martin scored on a 3-yard touchdown run with 3:53 to play to make it 35-23.
Collins, who already had two big plays earlier in the day, then made his second interception of the contest, picking off a slant pass at the BYU 46 just ahead of the two-minute timeout.
From there, BYU wrapped up the win.
Star players: Retzlaff threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns and was only sacked once. Eight different Cougars caught passes, led by Roberts with five catches for 75 yards.
Martin had a big day with 68 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while adding three receptions for 36 yards and another score.
Chriss carved up the BYU defense for 409 passing yards and three touchdowns, though his two interceptions were costly.
Sneed ran for 72 yards and added three catches for 24 yards and a touchdown, while Johnson caught 11 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown.
Key stats: Houston had more than 100 yards of total offense more than BYU — at 479 to 360 — but BYU was more effective with its drives.
BYU won the turnover battle, two to nothing, a big factor in changing the momentum.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: The passing stats on both sides were inflated — more particularly for Chriss, who hasn’t thrown for 200 or more yards in any game this season.
Even with this, though, Saturday’s matchup could play out like this, where Houston grabs an early lead before a slow-starting BYU gets going and takes charge.
How did the other Big 12 simulations play out?
Here’s how the other simulations went for each of the other three teams tied at 6-2 with BYU in the Big 12 standings — Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State.
Colorado 35, Oklahoma State 14: While the Cowboys scored first, a Travis Hunter 36-yard pick-six helped the Buffaloes take a 21-7 lead into halftime on their way to the victory.
Arizona State 28, Arizona 25: The Sun Devils marched on a touchdown drive moments before halftime to take a 21-14 lead into the break, then built a 28-17 lead before holding off a late rally from their rival Wildcats.
Iowa State 20, Kansas State 10: The Cyclones never trailed, turning an early Wildcats turnover into a long touchdown pass, then went up 14-3 midway through the second quarter before pushing that lead to 14 in the second half and holding off any Kansas State rally.
My analysis: Sorry, Cougar fans — while BYU won its game in the simulation, the Cougars didn’t receive any help from the other simulations.
The two main hopes are that either Iowa State or Arizona State would lose — that would put BYU in the Big 12 championship if the Cougars also win — but both the Cyclones and Sun Devils were victorious.
So, too, did Colorado — and with all four teams that are tied for the league lead winning in the final week of the season, Arizona State and Iowa State are the representatives in the title game in this scenario.