A new era of the College Football Playoff kicks off this weekend, with the first round of the expanded 12-team field.
How much will home-field advantage factor into these opening-round games?
We turned to the EA Sports College Football 25 video game for help to answer that question.
The Deseret News ran simulations of each of the four first-round games on College Football 25, and according to the video game, it’s a good thing to have home-field advantage in the opening round.
Here’s how the simulations were set up: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented, as well as uniforms that each team will wear — to the best of my knowledge.
How the College Football Playoff first-round simulations played out on College Football 25
Notre Dame 30, Indiana 15
This was the most lopsided of the four simulations, with the Fighting Irish building a 30-0 lead through three quarters. This was also the only one impacted greatly by the weather, as I accounted for a 30% chance of snow in the current weather forecast.
Notre Dame scored on its first four drives — two touchdowns and two field goals — to go into halftime up by 20.
The Irish converted a fourth-and-2 situation on their third drive to set up a short Riley Leonard touchdown run, and then Indiana lost a fumble on the ensuing possession. The Hoosiers defense held strong inside the 5 to force a field goal, a rare bright spot in a forgettable first half.
Jaden Greathouse caught a 15-yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter for Notre Dame’s final score, before Indiana added two late touchdowns to make it a two-score game.
Notre Dame finished with 365 yards of total offense, while holding Indiana to 213 yards.
Leonard threw for 214 yards, two touchdowns and also had a rushing score, while running back Jeremiyah Love ran for 141 yards and added 32 receiving yards and a touchdown. Greathouse finished with six catches for 58 receiving yards and a touchdown.
On Indiana’s side, Kurtis Rourke threw for 172 yards and a touchdown.
Penn State 30, SMU 27
The Nittany Lions trailed multiple times against the visiting Mustangs in this simulation, but Penn State drove for a game-winning field goal in the final minute and a half to secure the victory.
After Penn State drove into SMU territory on the game’s opening drive, the Mustangs’ Cale Sanders Jr. strip-sacked Drew Allar and returned the fumble 73 yards for a touchdown.
The two teams traded the lead back and forth — neither team led by more than seven points at any point — before a wild final two minutes.
Penn State went on a 74-yard drive to push ahead 27-20 on a 2-yard Nicholas Singleton touchdown run with 1:54 to play.
SMU countered quickly, as Kevin Jennings found a wide-open Roderick Daniels Jr. for a 38-yard score just 28 seconds later.
That left the Nittany Lions too much time, though — even though Penn State found itself in a third-and-20 situation with time running out, a 19-yard pass to Harrison Wallace III set up the game-winning 50-yard Ryan Barker field goal as time expired.
Penn State had 510 yards of total offense to 289 for SMU, but the Mustangs forced the game’s only two turnovers and cashed in for touchdowns on both of them.
Allar threw for 435 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Singleton added 91 rushing yards and a touchdown. Wallace, meanwhile, had 10 receptions for 163 yards.
For SMU, Jennings threw for 209 yards and a touchdown, Key’Shawn Smith had seven catches for 95 yards.
Texas 44, Clemson 41 (overtime)
Texas-Clemson was easily the wildest of the four simulations.
Clemson led 35-10 with 3:22 left in the third quarter, as the Tigers scored 35 of the next 38 points after the Longhorns took an early 7-0 lead.
Clemson broke the game open with a 2-yard touchdown run from Jay Haynes that followed a 65-yard run from Phil Mafah to get the Tigers in scoring position.
Then, after Texas stalled on its first drive of the second half, Clemson blocked a punt and scored on a short field to make it 28-10.
The Longhorns, though, started the comeback with a 68-yard touchdown catch by Isaiah Bond to make it 35-17 with 1:24 left in the third quarter. Texas then scored two more touchdowns — including a 48-yard pass to Jaydon Blue with 3:41 remaining — to make it 35-30.
After Texas forced a three and out, the Longhorns scored quickly again as Blue scored for the third time in the fourth quarter, this time on a 7-yard run, to go up 38-35 with 1:26 to go.
Clemson marched downfield, though, and kicked a 42-yard field goal to send the game into overtime.
The Tigers got the ball first and tacked on another field goal to go up, but Texas took the walk-off win on a 23-yard touchdown catch by Matthew Golden.
Bond was a star in the Longhorns’ passing attack, as his 10 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns nearly accounted for half of Quinn Ewers’ 439 passing yards.
Blue also had 111 yards of total offense (70 receiving and 40 rushing) while adding two scores.
Mafah, meanwhile, ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns for a more balanced Clemson offensive attack that had 100 fewer yards than Texas, at 389 to 489.
Ohio State 51, Tennessee 34
The Buckeyes and Volunteers matched each other touchdown for touchdown through much of the first half, until Ohio State got an advantage during a score-filled final minute and a half before the break.
Quinshon Judkins scored on a 3-yard touchdown run to make it 21-14 with 1:18 until halftime, but Tennessee responded with a 60-yard touchdown catch from Mike Matthews with 43 seconds remaining to tie things back up.
Ohio State, though, also scored on a long play — a 55-yard pass to Jeremiah Smith — to take a 28-21 lead into halftime.
While Tennessee trailed by four early in the fourth, the Volunteers forced a punt and had a chance to take the lead. But Jordan Hancock intercepted a Nico Iamaleava pass and returned it 18 yards for a pick-six to make it 38-27.
From there, the Buckeyes capitalized on enough Tennessee mistakes to maintain a double-digit lead and earn the win.
While Ohio State had 492 yards of total offense to 425 for Tennessee, the Buckeyes held a 2-0 advantage in turnovers forced.
Will Howard threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns, while Smith had seven catches for 118 yards and a touchdown for the Buckeyes.
Iamaleava threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns for the Volunteers, but also had two interceptions.
What would the College Football Playoff quarterfinals look like with these results?
With all four home teams winning in these simulations, it sets up these matchups in the quarterfinals.
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 seed Arizona State vs. No. 5 seed Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 seed Oregon vs. No. 8 seed Ohio State
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 seed Boise State vs. No. 6 seed Penn State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 seed Georgia vs. No. 7 seed Notre Dame