The Utah Hockey Club’s late-season push gave fans just enough hope that they’d see playoff hockey at the Delta Center in the team’s first year in Utah.
Utah fell short — though in hindsight, fans shouldn’t be too mad. It ultimately afforded them the fourth pick in the upcoming draft.
But had Utah made the playoffs, how would it have done? Let’s speculate, using stats to form an opinion.
Close games
To this point in the playoffs, 35% of the games have been decided by one goal. It’s crucial to be able to compete in tight situations, and that’s an area where Utah gained a lot of experience this year.
Utah had 34 games that were decided by one goal. Its record in those games was 14-7-13. That’s a .600 points percentage in the regular season — nothing to complain about.
But in the playoffs, there’s no differentiation between regulation and overtime losses. So, by playoff standards, UHC was 14-20 — a 41% win percentage.
To be able to compete in the playoffs, Utah needs to come out victorious more often in close games. That said, it’s better to lose a close game than it is to lose handily — another area in which the team improved. The 2023-24 Arizona Coyotes lost by three goals or more on 22 occasions, while the inaugural season Utah Hockey Club only did so 16 times.
Physicality
Per HockeyFights.com, Utah was tied for the second-most fights in the regular season. There’s no question it’s a tough squad, but in the playoffs, there’s a distinction between fighting and being generally physical.
In this year’s playoffs, there has been just one fight through 65 games. That’s disproportionate to the 300 fights in 1,312 regular-season games. But the playoffs have seen nearly twice as many hits: an average of 77 per game, as opposed to 43 in the regular season.
It’s all about wearing opponents down in the playoffs. You do that by finishing checks and taking away their space to make plays.
Utah had the fifth-fewest hits this season (though it should be mentioned that three of the four teams below them are still in the playoffs). And while it was the eighth-biggest team by average height, almost all of that came from the defensemen and the bottom-six forwards. Utah’s top six might be prone to getting pushed around in the playoffs.
Goalie rotation
Head coach André Tourigny was not afraid to give Karel Vejmelka the entire workload in net toward the end of the season, reasoning that that’s what he’d do in the playoffs, so that’s what he was going to do in the playoff push.
Of the 16 teams that qualified for the playoffs, 12 have started the same goalie every game to this point. No team has played nearly the 23 games that Vejmelka did — but that is roughly the number of games it takes to win the Stanley Cup, so it serves as a good benchmark.
Vejmelka’s numbers over that stretch were fine, but not elite: a .902 save percentage, a 2.45 goals-against average and 13 wins. You don’t win the Cup without top-of-the-line goaltending, and while Vejmelka is certainly capable of going on a hot streak, Utah might have struggled in the playoffs without a reliable backup to shoulder some of the work.
Matchups
Had Utah managed to snag the last playoff spot, it would have met the Presidents’ Trophy-Winnipeg Jets in the first round.
The St. Louis Blues, who actually took that spot, took them to overtime of Game 7 before bowing out. Utah’s 2-2-0 record against the Jets in the regular season suggests that it may have been able to keep up, but facing the Dallas Stars in the second round would leave slim chances for success.
Home-ice advantage
Part of what makes playoff hockey so entertaining is the amplified excitement of the participating fan bases. Utah definitely has that box checked.
All season, players from both the home and visiting teams referred to the Delta Center environment as that of a playoff arena.
While the renovation crews are probably glad for the additional time to finish their project, it’s a shame that there couldn’t be playoff hockey in Year 1.
So, what do we think?
Obviously, there are hundreds of factors that play into a team’s playoff chances. But based on these ones, it seems as though a playoff run wouldn’t have brought the Stanley Cup to the NHL’s newest state in the first season.
Of course, a playoff berth would provide invaluable experience to a young group of players. But with the fourth-overall pick in the back pocket, with the option to use it or trade it, perhaps it’s not the worst thing in the world.
