Few know exactly what the Pac-12 Conference’s media deal will look like beginning in 2026 — Be it the total valuation, how much money will be paid out to the individual schools, what the structure of those payments will be (will every team receive an equal share), who the media partners will be — anything and everything really.
Per multiple reports over a week ago now, the conference is close to securing a media deal involving multiple broadcast partners, and the expectation is that the media deal will be made public before any additional expansion of the league occurs.
Few may be in the know, but that hasn’t stopped many from putting forward their best guesses as to what the Pac-12 will secure for its media rights as a newly formed nine-school (or more) conference, with at least eight of those universities sponsoring football.
Here is the current thinking regarding the Pac-12’s prospective media deal.
Total valuation and school payments
Most projected valuations for the Pac-12’s new media deal fall to between $70 million and $100 million annually.
It is a significant range, but projections for team payouts have been as low as $7 million annually (which would still be a significant increase for most of the schools that are leaving the Mountain West Conference for the Pac-12, including Utah State), or as high as $12 million.
“The industry insiders keep pointing toward $10 million to $12 million per school,” John Canzano wrote earlier this week.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported, however, that it appears the payout number is dropping, at least when compared to initial projections when the Pac-12 started reforming.
“In the wake of the initial flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected revenue from a TV deal north of $10 million per school, but conditions have changed,” Thamel wrote.
“That number projects under $10 million for the new deal starting in 2026 but is still expected to be more than those schools would have received had they remained in the Mountain West.”
The Mercury News’ Jon Wilner best guess was to keep things on the lower side.
“In our view, any deal that pays between $7 million and $10 million per school annually would fall within a reasonable range,“ he wrote Wednesday. ”At $70 million, each of the nine members would collect $7.8 million.”
Chris Murray of Nevada Sports Net was of a similar mind.
“Some of the initial estimates put this television deal at eight figures per school, so $10 million-plus annually at a low-water mark,” he wrote.
“That figure is unlikely to be hit now. I’m guessing $8 million per school will be announced, with that pie being sliced by one more piece once the Pac-12 adds its next school.”
Of note, Wilner observed that the Pac-12 is “expected” to have a revenue distribution model that mimics that of the ACC, meaning that schools that have more success with their athletics — especially in football and men’s basketball — will receive a bigger slice of the media revenue pie.
“Don’t be surprised if schools at the top end of the revenue chain receive closer to $10 million in media rights in a given year,” he wrote.
More important — money or exposure?
Both Canzano and Wilner make the argument that more important to the Pac-12 than the sheer dollar amount it gets in a media deal is the level of exposure the conference gets.
The theory is that more exposure overtime will lead to more demand and national recognition, which in turn would lead to more money down the line.
“Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told me that unless the money was game-changing, he valued getting maximum exposure,” Canzano wrote.
“Gonzaga AD Chris Standiford told me his school was more interested in “a true partnership” from media companies than just taking the biggest check. Keep that in mind when the deal is announced."
Added Wilner: “Whatever the Pac-12 schools collect in media revenue, they won’t come close to matching counterparts in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. That makes exposure for the product absolutely vital.
“The rebuilt conference cannot be irrelevant. It must have a significant portion of games on linear television (either over-the-air or cable networks).”
How many broadcast partners and who?
Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger reported that the Pac-12 could have as many as four broadcast partners when its new media deal is announced, and many believe they have a good sense of who at least three of those partners might be.
Namely the CW, ESPN and CBS, per Thamel.
“In April, the Pac-12 agreed to a deal with the CW, ESPN and CBS to show the 13 home football games involving Oregon State and Washington State in 2025,” he wrote.
“Those partnerships are not binding into 2026, but Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould said previously the conference was looking for partners in 2025 that expressed interested in longer-term affiliations.”
Wilner believes the fourth broadcast partner for the conference could be Turner Networks, owned by Warner Bro. Discovery.
“We view a package of football broadcasts on The CW as highly likely, considering the existing partnership for 2024-25, with additional inventory on ESPN and the Turner networks owned by WBD,” he wrote.
“That said, don’t be surprised if Fox or CBS is involved instead of, or in addition to, ESPN or WBD. The Pac-12 could have as many as four network partners."
What’s next for the Pac-12?
Multiple reports have suggested that the announcement of a new media deal will come before any further expansion by the Pac-12.
Expansion has to happen by next summer in order for the league to be considered a actual FBS conference going forward, which makes the media deal of particular importance.
Don’t expect an announcement about expansion to come at the same time as news of the new media deal, though. That is not the general expectation right now.
“Where the Pac-12 goes beyond the eighth member is heavily tied to some clarity on the league’s financial future,” Thamel wrote. “The league’s television deal, with at least three partners, is expected to come together in the coming weeks.
“The timing of that deal, however, is not necessarily tied to the looming announcement of an eighth football-playing school.”