In his first season leading San José State football, Ken Niumatalolo did not disappoint. The Spartans won seven games to open the Niumatalolo era, tying the program’s best win total in a season in the last 12 years.
Brent Brennan, now at Arizona, deserves credit for rebuilding the SJSU program. Niumatalolo said so himself last Thursday at Mountain West media days.
“Coach Brennan did a great job in recruiting great players, and we’ve just tried to continue that,” he said.
Entering year two under Niumatalolo, though, expectations are high for the Spartans. In the Mountain West Conference preseason poll for 2025, SJSU was picked to finish third overall, behind only Boise State and UNLV, two programs that won 11-plus games a season ago.
It isn’t out of the realm of possibility to believe that San José State under Niumatalolo will be a top 10, maybe even a top 5 Group of Five program this coming season. Is it?
What ESPN predicts for San José State football in 2025
ESPN’s FPI is probably the best-known season predictor in college football and the metric likes San José State. Maybe not as much as the media who voted in the MWC preseason poll, but enough that San José State is considered one of the better teams in the MW.
Ahead of the upcoming season, the Spartans are considered the third-best MWC team, projected to win six or seven games.
The Spartans are given a better chance to win six games and become bowl eligible than all but two MWC teams — Boise State and UNLV — and are given the fourth-best odds to win the conference (4.5%), behind the Broncos (45.6%), Rebels (37.7%) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (4.8%).
There’s good reason for SJSU’s placement in FPI.
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, another one of the more notable preseason predictors, San José State returned more than 50% of its contributors on offense and defense from last season, the second-most returners for any MWC team after Boise State.
At No. 83 overall in the SP+ rankings, the Spartans are considered the third-best in the MWC.
What Ken Niumatalolo thinks about his San José State football team?
At Mountain West media days, Niumatalolo was appreciative of the positive opinions about his team.
Talking specifically about the MWC preseason poll, he said. “Humbled that people think that way of us.”
He was quick to add that preseason honors and projections are far from definitive, however.
“I’ve been a head coach — this is my 17th year of being a head football coach. I don’t put too much stock in that. You know, last year we were picked 10th (in the MWC preseason poll). We’re grateful, we’re humble, but I also recognize in this profession (what matters) is what you do on the field."
Niumatalolo was nonetheless effusive in his praise about his team, though.
“Just super impressed with our guys that are coming back, their leadership and their buy in,” he said. “And like everybody else in the country, we’re all optimistic at this time.”
Niumatalolo was specific in his praise for returning quarterback Walker Eget, who started last season as a backup before assuming the starting QB position later in the season.
“From the bowl game until now, it’s even gone up exponentially higher, just his knowledge in grasping the offense,” Niumatalolo said. “Watching him this offseason and during spring practice ... he’s taken on a great leadership role that wasn’t him last year, because we didn’t make our announcement who the starter was until the first game of the season, and it wasn’t him. He didn’t start until later in the season. So he kind of had to earn that role but he’s been a complete buy in. You just watch him now, he takes the receivers on his own, and he goes and throws routes. Just really, really excited.”
“His knowledge of the offense is one thing, and it’s gone up,” Niumatalolo added. “But just watching his leadership, his buy in. Your quarterback always has to be a leader, but sometimes they lead in different ways. Sometimes they’re a little bit more demonstrative and maybe get at people. Walker is more of a gatherer. He’s more of a nurturing type, bringing guys in. And I think in today’s day and age of the portal, you get new guys in, you have to be able to grab and bring guys in quickly.”
It wasn’t just Eget, though.
Niumatalolo also heaped praise on wide receiver Matthew Coleman, as well as a host of newcomers to SJSU at the position including Leland Smith, Malachi Riley, Danny Scudero and Mason Starling, to name a few.
“I think from top to bottom, our room’s deeper,” Niumatalolo said. “And we recognize that a big part of what we do is through the air, and we had to go get some pieces.”
Go on down the roster, position group by position group, and Niumatalolo expressed optimism about just about everyone SJSU will field this season.
“Feel very, very blessed and fortunate to be surrounded by a bunch of great young men,” he said.
Time will tell if Niumatalolo truly has a great team on his hands, but he has a proven track record going back to his time at Navy. While leading the Midshipmen, Niumatalolo won eight or more games in a season nine times, and won 10-plus games in three seasons.
The Spartans’ schedule is a mixture of good and bad. In the non-conference, SJSU plays at Texas and at Stanford. The Spartans do miss Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State in conference play, making the conference slate overwhelmingly favorable for SJSU, at least on paper.
“I’m grateful that we don’t have to play Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State,” Niumatalolo said with a laugh.
He noted that Texas will be a significant challenge — the Longhorns, along with Ohio State, are considered frontrunners to win the national title — but ultimately, things line up well for the Spartans, as long as they are the team many expect them to be.
“Our focus right now is on ourselves,” Niumatalolo said. “To try to make sure that we’re as strong, as fast and as flexible and our football knowledge is as high as it can be for the first game. We’ll kind of go from there. But the schedule for us, as it lays out in conference, is better than last year. So we’ll see what happens.”
