BYU is 8-0. Will the Cougars finish strong enough for a Big 12 title?

It appears as if the Big 12 football race is going down to the wire yet again.

The conference championship game is 36 days away, and with five ranked teams in the league, November will be critical in determining who separates themselves from the pack.

Luckily for BYU fans, the Cougars stand atop of the Big 12 standings at 8-0 and 5-0 in conference play — the only overall unbeaten squad remaining in the league, and, along with Cincinnati, the only team to remain unblemished in Big 12 play.

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BYU started hot last year before two narrow November losses kept the Cougars out of the Big 12 championship game; however, the advanced metrics currently point to a happy ending for the 2025 Cougars.

ESPN Analytics uses a number of formulas — including Football Power Index (FPI), strength of record and more — to project specific outcomes for each individual college football game. I looked into the algorithm’s projections for each remaining Big 12 contest this season to determine how the end-of-year standings might shake out — and who will likely play for the conference championship on Dec. 6.

Listed below are the five current league leaders in the Big 12 and their respective remaining schedules.

Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics gives the team to win that day, with the cumulative overall and conference records being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.

Injuries, coaching changes, newer game results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we’ll stick to what they say today.

While you should never fully put your faith into such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves to be analytics believers may want to look into Texas travel for early December.

BYU

Current record: 8-0 (5-0 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• At Texas Tech — 41.9% chance to win.
• Vs. TCU — 75.3%.
• At Cincinnati — 56.7%.
• Vs. UCF — 84.6%.

Analytics-based projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).

Texas Tech

Current record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• At Kansas State — 64.4% chance to win.
• Vs. BYU — 58.1%.
• Vs. UCF — 85.2%.
• At West Virginia — 90.5%.

Analytics-based projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).

Cincinnati

Current record: 7-1 (5-0 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• At Utah — 19.5% chance to win.
• Vs. Arizona — 75.4%.
• Vs. BYU — 43.3%.
• At TCU — 43.8%.

Analytics-based projected final record: 8-4 (6-3 in Big 12 play).

Houston

Current record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• Vs. West Virginia — 81.1% chance to win.
• At UCF — 37.0%.
• Vs. TCU — 44.5%.
• At Baylor — 43.1%.

Analytics-based projected final record: 8-4 (5-4 in Big 12 play).

Utah

Current record: 6-2 (3-2 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• Vs. Cincinnati — 80.5% chance to win.
• At Baylor — 79.1%.
• Vs. Kansas State — 79.8%.
• At Kansas — 76.7%.

Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).

Analytics-based projected Big 12 championship game matchup

11-1 BYU vs. 11-1 Texas Tech.

What are the Big 12 tiebreaker policies?

According to the Big 12 rule book, here is the conference’s list of two-team tiebreaker policies:

1. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams
2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics
7. Coin toss