BYU football hasn’t appeared in a conference championship game since 1998, but the Cougars could change that as soon as this weekend.
After narrowly missing a trip to last year’s Big 12 title game, a BYU win on the road Saturday against 7-3 Cincinnati, coupled with some outside help, would punch the Cougars’ ticket to Arlington, Texas, for this year’s championship with time to spare.
One of the following two scenarios needs to occur in order for BYU to clinch a Big 12 title game berth this weekend:
- BYU defeats Cincinnati, Colorado defeats Arizona State and TCU defeats Houston.
- BYU defeats Cincinnati, Colorado defeats Arizona State and Utah defeats Kansas State.
According to ESPN’s analytics and SP+ rankings, here are the current likelihoods of each event occurring:
- BYU win over Cincinnati — 67.5% chance from ESPN analytics, 60% chance from SP+.
- Colorado win over Arizona State — 36.8% chance from ESPN analytics, 35% chance from SP+.
- TCU win over Houston — 53.2% chance from ESPN analytics, 43% chance from SP+.
- Utah win over Kansas State — 88.6% chance from ESPN analytics, 86% chance from SP+.
Thus, the most likely clinching scenario for BYU this weekend would be Utah defeating Kansas State, considering the Utes are a heavy favorite, along with Colorado taking down Arizona State at home in Boulder.
However, the most simple path to Arlington for the Cougars is, of course, just winning out, even if that means a berth won’t be clinched this weekend.
“What I’m trying to keep the team focused on is the stuff that we can control. I know one thing, if we go out there and play at our best, I like our chances,” head coach Kalani Sitake told reporters via Zoom earlier this week.
“... If you take care of business and do things one step at a time, then things should work out in your favor. That’s what I’m banking on happening, and that’s what I want these guys to be focused on.”