Utah moved up one spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, checking in at No. 12.
The October loss to BYU in Provo looms large for the Utes with the No. 11 Cougars ranked one spot ahead of Utah. If BYU (9-1) and Utah (8-2) both win out in the regular season, the Cougars should remain ranked ahead of the Utes.
Could Utah leap BYU if the Cougars are blown out in the Big 12 title game against Texas Tech? It seems unlikely that the playoff committee would punish the Cougars, who would have the same overall record as Utah with a Big 12 title game loss, for losing in a conference championship game that Utah didn’t make — especially with the Cougars having the head-to-head edge over the Utes.
“Regarding the conference championship game, whoever makes the Big 12 Conference championship game — and I don’t know the scenarios of who gets it in and who doesn’t — but it’s just another data point that we would compare the participants of those games into the other members of the top 25,“ said College Football Playoff committee chair and Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek.
“So it’s just another data point we use, so it’s hard to say how it’s going to impact one team participating in it versus another team that doesn’t participate.”
The bad news for both schools right now? As it stands ahead of the second-to-last week of the regular season, the Big 12 is currently a one-bid conference, short of someone upsetting Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game.
BYU and Utah are the first and second teams out of the CFP right now.
The Cougars and Utes are ranked ahead of Miami, which is No. 13, but the winner of the ACC gets an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. So does the highest-ranked Group of Five team, which is currently former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff and No. 24 Tulane.
BYU or Utah have to be in the Top 10 to get an at-large CFP bid when all is said and done, and without a chance for either school to get a Top 25 victory the rest of the way in the regular season, they need some help.
Both schools were hurt by Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama last week, which moved the Sooners up to No. 8 and dropped the Crimson Tide to No. 10, but not out of the playoff picture. Utah and BYU fans will be hoping for an Oklahoma loss (the Sooners have games vs. No. 22 Missouri and LSU left) over the next two weeks.
The rival fanbases in the state of Utah will also be united in cheering against the Crimson Tide. Alabama plays Eastern Illinois this week, but then there’s the Iron Bowl between No. 10 Alabama (8-2) and rival Auburn (4-6). Alabama is the heavy favorite, but the game is at Auburn and crazier things have happened in that rivalry. If the Tigers can pull off a stunning upset, that would be good for both the Cougars and the Utes.
For BYU, a loss by 9-1 Oregon — which hosts No. 15 USC this weekend — could potentially move the Cougars into an at-large spot if they win out in the regular season.
But would a 9-2 USC team with a statement win at No. 7 Oregon and losses to No. 21 Illinois and No. 9 Notre Dame jump the No. 11 Utes with losses to No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU? The Utes’ biggest statement win was either against then-No. 17 Cincinnati (now unranked) or a Sam Leavitt-less Arizona State team that is ranked No. 25 in the latest CFP rankings.
Utah needs a BYU loss at Cincinnati this Saturday (the Cougars are 2.5-point favorites), which would majorly help the Utes out in both the Big 12 title race and the chase for a College Football Playoff bid.
Utah lost 34-10 to Texas Tech (the Utes were down three points with 10:22 in the fourth quarter before the Red Raiders scored three unanswered touchdowns) and lost 24-21 to BYU. In their other eight games, the Utes have won by an average margin of victory of 35.3 points.
The Utes also have both a Top 10 offense and defense in terms of points per game and metrics like ESPN’s FPI — Utah is ranked No. 7 in the metric, which is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season” — have a favorable view of the Utes.
“In regards to Utah being ahead of Miami, I mean, Utah, they’ve lost two games this season, one to No. 5 Texas Tech, the other to No. 11 BYU,” said College Football Playoff committee chair and Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek. “Comparatively, Miami’s lost two games, one at home to an unranked Louisville and one on the road against an unranked SMU ... Utah right now, they are second in the country in their margin of victory in each of their games. They have played really good football moving forward.”
The College Football Playoff committee certainly likes the Utes, but not more than other two-loss teams like Oklahoma (No. 8), Notre Dame (No. 9) or Alabama (No. 10), which is why Utah needs to hope for some chaos over the final two weeks of the season.
“I’ll tell you right now that this team has a lot of confidence. We’ve got a lot of momentum going right now. The leadership is outstanding and we think we’re playing good football. Is it good enough? We’ll find out,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said.
“We got to take care of our business first starting with this week and when the dust settles and the regular season’s over, we’ll see where we’re at and what kind of opportunities are there.”