The final weekend of the college football regular season is here, and there are still two open spots available in the Big 12 championship game.
Yes, Texas Tech and BYU are heavy favorites to earn those bids when they take on sizable underdogs this weekend.
Both the Red Raiders and Cougars would clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with wins Saturday.
There is still hope — and a variety of steps that would need to play out — for Arizona State or Utah to also make the Big 12 championship game, though.
Here’s a look at the Big 12 championship tiebreaker scenarios for each of the four remaining eligible teams.
BYU clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship with:
- A win over UCF OR
- An Arizona State loss OR
- A BYU loss + Texas Tech loss AND an Arizona State win AND a Utah win
Texas Tech clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship with:
- A win over Texas Tech OR
- An Arizona State loss
Arizona State clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship with:
- A win over Arizona + a Texas Tech loss AND a Utah loss AND a BYU win OR
- A win over Arizona + a BYU loss AND a Utah loss OR
- A win over Arizona + a Texas Tech loss AND a BYU loss AND a Utah win
Utah clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship with:
- A win over Kansas + a Texas Tech loss AND an Arizona State win AND a BYU win
Here’s how each of the Big 12 teams stack up heading into Week 14.
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1)
- Previous ranking: No. 1 (no change)
- Last week: Bye
- Next game: Saturday at West Virginia, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN)
Not enough dominoes fell into place for Texas Tech to clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game while the Red Raiders were on a bye, but Texas Tech is on the cusp of doing just that going into the regular-season finale.
There’s a clear path to the Big 12 title game for the Red Raiders — beat West Virginia on Saturday to clinch that spot. An Arizona State loss would also do it. Texas Tech is a heavy favorite against the Mountaineers — ESPN’s analytics give the Red Raiders a 91.5% chance of winning the game.
2. BYU Cougars (10-1, 7-1)
- Previous ranking: No. 2 (no change)
- Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 26-14
- Next game: Saturday vs. UCF, 11 a.m. MST (ESPN2)
Give BYU plenty of credit: The Cougars just completed a difficult six-game stretch — all against teams that are bowl eligible — with a 5-1 record, and four of those games were on the road.
The Cougars followed the lead of star running back LJ Martin to their victory at Cincinnati. The junior ran for a career-high 222 yards and two touchdowns, and BYU never trailed, though it was a close contest until Martin’s second touchdown gave the Cougars a 12-point lead with just under a minute to play.
Now, BYU can clinch its spot in the Big 12 championship game by beating UCF in the season finale. An Arizona State loss would also put the Cougars in the Big 12 title game, as would one unlikely scenario (outlined above) involving BYU losing this weekend. It’s simple, though — win and they’re in. The Cougars have a 93.6% chance of beating UCF, according to ESPN’s analytics.
3. Utah Utes (9-2, 6-2)
- Previous ranking: No. 3 (no change)
- Last week: Beat Kansas State, 51-47
- Next game: Friday at Kansas, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN)
That about a miraculous, wild win.
Utah looked like it would drop its third contest of the season when Kansas State went up 47-35 with seven minutes to play. Thanks to some heroics on both sides of the ball, though, the Utes rallied and took the lead on Devon Dampier’s second rushing touchdown of the day.
There are still minimal odds that Utah can make the Big 12 championship game and/or earn an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff, but both scenarios are extremely unlikely heading into Week 14 of the season. First things first — take care of business against Kansas, and let the cards fall where they may.
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-3, 6-2)
- Previous ranking: No. 4 (no change)
- Last week: Beat Colorado, 42-17
- Next game: Friday vs. Arizona, 7 p.m. MST (Fox)
There were plenty of people around the Big 12 tuning into Arizona State’s matchup last weekend against Colorado, hoping that the Buffaloes could pull the upset. It would have eliminated the Sun Devils from Big 12 championship game contention and would have clinched a spot in the title game for both Texas Tech and BYU.
Arizona State, though, pulled away from Colorado in the fourth quarter and kept those dreams alive to defend their Big 12 title. Arizona State needs plenty of help — and a win over a hot Arizona team — to make the Big 12 title game, but the door isn’t closed yet.
5. Arizona Wildcats (8-3, 5-3)
- Previous ranking: No. 6 (⬆️ 1)
- Last week: Beat Baylor, 41-17
- Next game: Friday at Arizona State, 7 p.m. MST (Fox)
Arizona is on a tear — the Wildcats have won four straight, and if not for a slow start to league play, they could have been in the running for a spot in the conference championship game. Arizona turned a close game into a blowout with 20 fourth-quarter points against Baylor.
It gives Arizona plenty of momentum going into the Territorial Cup on Friday night against Arizona State. Can the Wildcats play spoiler to the Sun Devils’ Big 12 title hopes and slam the door shut on their bid to make the league championship? Brent Brennan’s got things humming in Tucson, and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
6. Houston Cougars (8-3, 5-3)
- Previous ranking: No. 5 (⬇️ 1)
- Last week: Lost to TCU, 17-14
- Next game: Saturday at Baylor, 10 a.m. MST (TNT)
A few weeks ago, it looked like Houston would have a strong chance to be in Big 12 contention all the way into the final week of the regular season. After losing two of their past three games, though, that hope was extinguished. The Cougars’ loss to TCU, when Houston missed a potential game-tying field goal in the final minute, eliminated them from the Big 12 race.
Now, Houston must turn its focus to finishing the year strong in a road game at Baylor. The Cougars have already doubled their win total from last season and have a shot at a 10-win season if they can beat the Bears, then win a bowl game. That could get Houston back in the final top-25 rankings.
7. Iowa State Cyclones (7-4, 4-4)
- Previous ranking: No. 8 (⬆️ 1)
- Last week: Beat Kansas, 38-14
- Next game: Saturday at Oklahoma State, 10 a.m. MST (ESPNU)
Iowa State has done a good job the past two weeks to finally shake off a tough four-game losing streak. That included a dominant victory over Kansas last week, when the Cyclones led 17-0 at halftime and cruised to the win.
Iowa State won’t be headed back to Arlington for the Big 12 championship game, but the Cyclones have an excellent shot at a nine-win season — one year after setting the school record with 11 wins in 2024. Iowa State will be a big favorite when it travels to Oklahoma State to finish the regular season.
8. TCU Horned Frogs (7-4, 4-4)
- Previous ranking: No. 9 (⬆️ 1)
- Last week: Beat Houston, 17-14
- Next game: Saturday vs. Cincinnati, 1:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
That was a solid bounce-back win for TCU. After two straight losses bumped the Horned Frogs out of league contention, TCU responded well and earned a tough win on the road at Houston, overcoming four turnovers in the process.
The Horned Frogs have also clinched bowl eligibility, but a win over Cincinnati would get them to eight wins and ensure they finish in the top half of the Big 12 standings. Those are things the Horned Frogs could build off of heading into 2026.
9. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-4, 5-3)
- Previous ranking: No. 7 (⬇️ 2)
- Last week: Lost to BYU, 26-14
- Next game: Saturday at TCU, 1:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
Things have fallen apart in recent weeks for Cincinnati. The Bearcats have lost three straight, including at Utah and last week at home to BYU, while Arizona also went into Cincinnati and earned a win. That’s three of the hottest teams in the Big 12 right now.
Still, the Bearcats are bowl eligible for the first time as a Big 12 member, after winning a combined eight games the past two seasons. There’s still the opportunity to finish the year strong, starting with a road game at TCU this weekend.
10. Kansas State Wildcats (5-6, 4-4)
- Previous ranking: No. 11 (⬆️ 1)
- Last week: Lost to Utah, 51-47
- Next game: Saturday vs. Colorado, 10 a.m. MST (FS1)
That was a heartbreaking result for Kansas State. For much of the game, the Wildcats had taken the fight to Utah and were leading 47-35 last week. Everything turned on a two-point attempt that the Utes intercepted and returned for two points of their own, and Devon Dampier then led two late touchdown drives as the Wildcats came up agonizingly short.
The loss leaves Kansas State one win short of bowl eligibility. The Wildcats, who were agonizingly close to having won four of their past five games before Utah rallied, are given an 82.8% chance of beating Colorado this weekend by ESPN’s analytics.
11. Baylor Bears (5-6, 3-5)
- Previous ranking: No. 10 (⬇️ 1)
- Last week: Lost to Arizona, 41-17
- Next game: Saturday vs. Houston, 10 a.m. MST (TNT)
It feels like Baylor is ready for the offseason. Though the Bears have gone into their previous two games needing just one win to attain bowl eligibility, Baylor has struggled to put together a full 60 minutes against two of the Big 12’s top teams, Utah and Arizona.
Houston is a bit more vulnerable, having lost two of its past three games. Baylor already knows that coach Dave Aranda is coming back for the 2026 season. Can the Bears win Saturday and earn bowl eligibility, something that could build a bit of momentum heading into next year?
12. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-7, 2-6)
- Previous ranking: No. 12 (no change)
- Last week: Bye
- Next game: Saturday vs. Texas Tech, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN)
There are multiple fanbases around the Big 12 who will be cheering for West Virginia this weekend. If the Mountaineers could pull off the shocking win over Texas Tech, it would open the door for schools like Arizona State or Utah to make it to the Big 12 championship game instead of the Red Raiders.
It’s a tall task, though. While West Virginia has looked improved over the past month — and nearly knocked off Arizona State in its last game — the Mountaineers are major underdogs against the Red Raiders.
13. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6, 3-5)
- Previous ranking: No. 13 (no change)
- Last week: Lost to Iowa State, 38-14
- Next game: Friday vs. Utah, 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Like Baylor, it feels like Kansas is just hanging on at this point. The Jayhawks have lost four of their past five games, and last week, that included being overwhelmed by Iowa State on the road.
While Kansas could become bowl eligible with a win, it faces a monumental challenge. Even though Utah is coming off a closer-than-expected win over Kansas State, the Utes are heavy favorites over the Jayhawks in a post-Thanksgiving matchup.
14. UCF Knights (5-6, 2-6)
- Previous ranking: No. 14 (no change)
- Last week: Beat Oklahoma State, 17-14
- Next game: Saturday at BYU, 11 a.m. MST (ESPN2)
The good news? UCF beat Oklahoma State to snap a three-game losing streak. The bad news? The Knights trailed the Cowboys 14-0 at halftime and had to rally against the worst team in the conference just to earn a rare win.
Much like West Virginia, there will be other fanbases pulling for UCF this weekend. If the Knights manage to upset BYU, it could open the door for Arizona State to swoop in and earn a spot in the Big 12 title game. UCF is only given a 6.4% chance of beating BYU, though, per ESPN’s analytics.
15. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-10, 0-8)
- Previous ranking: No. 15 (no change)
- Last week: Lost to UCF, 17-14
- Next game: Saturday vs. Iowa State, 10 a.m. MST (ESPNU)
At the half, it looked like Oklahoma State was on its way to its first Big 12 win in nearly two years. The Cowboys were up 14-0 at the break on UCF, but the Knights rallied with 17 unanswered points in the second half, dropping Oklahoma State to 0-8 in league play.
It’s likely to become 0-9 this weekend, with Iowa State coming to town. Though the Cowboys finish the year at home, the Cyclones are given 91.9% chance of winning this weekend’s matchup by ESPN’s analytics.
16. Colorado Buffaloes (3-8, 1-7)
- Previous ranking: No. 16 (no change)
- Last week: Lost to Arizona State, 42-17
- Next game: Saturday at Kansas State, 10 a.m. MST (FS1)
It’s been a forgettable season in Boulder, and that extended into Colorado’s home finale last weekend. The Buffaloes trailed 21-17 going into the fourth quarter against Arizona State, but the Sun Devils used an 88-yard touchdown run to start a three-touchdown quarter and hand the Buffaloes their fourth-straight defeat.
Kansas State has bowl eligibility to play for when Colorado travels to Manhattan this weekend. It’s very likely the Buffaloes end the season on a five-game skid.