The Pac-12 is back.
After adding six football programs this offseason, not only is the century-old conference back to full strength after two years with two members, the league is also expected to be involved in the discussion for the Group of 6’s automatic spot in the College Football Playoff this year.
Last week, ESPN released its initial rankings for the Football Power Index, a predictive measure designed to project a team’s performance, and the numbers indicate what the Pac-12 might be in store for during its first season with a new look.
Pac-12 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index
Rank | Team | FPI score
- 50. Boise State | 4.0
- 59. San Diego State | 1.4
- 77. Fresno State | minus-2.5
- 83. Washington State | minus-4.1
- 84. Texas State | minus-4.3
- 92. Utah State | minus-6.7
- 98. Oregon State | minus-8.1
- 118. Colorado State | minus-12.4
What does ESPN’s FPI project for the Pac-12 race?
There are two schools, Boise State and San Diego State, who earned the lion’s share of odds to win the Pac-12 title in 2026. FPI gives the Broncos 36.4% odds to win the league title, while the Aztecs are at 25.1%.
Only one other school, Fresno State, has odds that are better than 10% — the Bulldogs are given 11.4% odds to win the Pac-12.
Texas State (8.6%) and Washington State (8.3%) are next.
What does ESPN’s FPI think of the Pac-12’s College Football Playoff hopes?
Boise State is the only Pac-12 program with better than 10% odds to make the playoff this year, at 11%.
San Diego State comes in with 7.4% odds before a sharp dropoff occurs with the other six league schools.
The Broncos, who made the CFP two years ago in its first season with the current 12-team format, lost to Penn State in the quarterfinals after earning a first-round bye.
How does the Pac-12 compare to the rest of the Group of 6 leagues?
The highest ranked Group of 6 team in the CFP rankings will earn an automatic bid, and last year, two Group of 6 schools, Tulane and James Madison, made the 12-team field. Both the Green Wave and the Dukes lost in the first round.
By the FPI’s metrics, the Pac-12 is expected to be the toughest Group of 6 conference this season, with the American Conference not far behind.
Boise State is the only G6 team with double-digit odds to make the CFP, one year after the Broncos went 9-5 and won the Mountain West but were not in consideration for a playoff spot at year’s end.
Another G6 school with higher CFP odds than others is Tulane, at 7.5%. The Green Wave won the American Conference last season and earned a No. 11 spot in the 2025 CFP, where they lost to Ole Miss.
