A new report shows that violent crime across the nation is dropping — and the White House was quick to take credit.
In what the administration is calling the “Trump Effect,” crimes including homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault have decreased in the last year in America’s largest cities, per statistics from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
The data was collected from 66 law enforcement agencies between Jan. 1 and June 30 for both 2025 and 2026, showing nearly 14,200 fewer reported violent crimes.
U.S. violent crime stats
Homicide:
2025: 2,611
2026: 2,162
Rape:
2025: 13,277
2026: 12,449
Robbery:
2025: 37,938
2026: 31,629
Aggravated assault:
2025: 117,416
2026: 110,768
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., shared the stats on X, crediting Trump and Republicans for “delivering on the promise to make America SAFE again.”
The Criminal Justice Policy released a similar report at the end of July, stating that multiple factors could be at play when determining the fall in crime, including that no “success or failure of any policy or practice” is a determining factor, according to report co-authors Ernesto Lopez, CCJ senior research specialist, and Bobby Boxerman of the Regional Justice Information Service.
Trends also show that the decline in crime began in 2022 under President Joe Biden, following a spike in homicides and increases in aggravated assault during the COVID-19 pandemic era.
“While it’s not fully clear that 2025 will 100 percent be the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the US, it is decently clear that the 2026 murder rate will be by far the lowest ever recorded,” crime analyst Jeff Asher recently projected. “The 2025 murder rate should come in at between 4.1 and 4.4 per 100k while the 2026 murder rate should come in at an astonishing 3 to 3.8 per 100k based on the currently available data.”