Mother Nature has been generous to northern Utah in terms of snowpack accumulation so far this year and statewide. The average is near normal — 95% of the median.
That paints a bright picture.
Or does it?
A new water supply outlook report released by the Utah Snow Survey under the umbrella of the Natural Resources Conservation Service stresses that looks can be deceiving.
“An old joke in statistics is that if a person has one foot in ice water and the other foot in boiling water, that on average the person should feel comfortable. Obviously, the opposite is true; the concept is meant to illustrate one of the flaws inherent in averaging. This winter’s snowpack in Utah has provided a real-world example of the shortcomings of only looking at average conditions,” writes Jordan Clayton, Utah Snow Survey supervisor.
While northern Utah watersheds were generally above normal, southern Utah — southwestern Utah in particular — has had a terrible start to its snowpack season. Almost no measurable snow fell in southwestern Utah during December, he emphasized.
“Furthermore, five (snow measuring) sites in that area were at record lows for Jan. 1; four had no snow at all. By contrast, snowpack conditions were at or above normal for all northern Utah watersheds. Hopefully some relief will come to our southern basins soon!”
Utah’s reservoir storage is currently at 75% of capacity, down 3% from this time last year. Soil moisture is also struggling, Clayton noted, which is likely to impair the efficiency of spring runoff.
He did caution January reports on snowpack and water supply are issued as an advisory because so much can change in February and March.
And while the Great Salt Lake basin has seen precipitation and snow water equivalent above 100%, it is a really rough estimate as to how the saline lake will fair in the future. The numbers now are intended to be guidance for water managers in the future.