- Weekly average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped slightly.
- But a daily mortgage rate index put that rate at over 7%.
- Uncertainty expected to continue as Trump's tariff policies roil markets.
According to a weekly survey, mortgage rates continue to trend down. But analysts say those numbers aren’t telling the whole story.
“Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week,” a Mortgage News Daily headline read Thursday, after the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, better known as Freddie Mac, reported the weekly U.S. average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.62%.
Freddie Mac said the average rate “continues to trend down, remaining under 7% for the 12th consecutive week. As purchase applications continue to climb, the spring home buying season is shaping up to look more favorable than last year.”
While the numbers are correct according to the weekly survey’s methodology, Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham calls the result “unfortunately quite stale” given the ongoing economic and market turmoil surrounding President Donald Trump’s changing tariffs.
As of Friday, the website’s daily rate index for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 7.10%, up 0.13% from Thursday. The last time rates climbed above 7% was in January, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.
Graham said the average lender is up about 0.30-0.35% from the end of last week.
“The issue is that there’s been a lot of upward rate movement during the past few days — more than enough to see that today’s rates are significantly higher than anything seen last week, or last month, for that matter,” he wrote.
Redfin economic research lead Chen Zhao posted Wednesday that “mortgage rates have been rising consistently,” after falling in the days following Trump’s initial tariff announcement on April 2.
On Wednesday, the president paused the hefty reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, but left in place a new 10% across-the-board tariff. China was the exception and on Thursday, the White House clarified tariffs on Chinese goods were higher than announced, 145%.
Zhao declined to predict in her post what’s going to happen to mortgage rates over the next week, month or year.
“It’s impossible to say at the moment because the size of the tariffs taking effect today have upended the global economy and financial markets to such an extent that it’s hard to know where we will land,” she said, adding, “The only certainty is that we should expect outsized volatility for the foreseeable future.”
Also Wednesday, Zillow’s senior economist, Kara Ng, described mortgage rates as being “whipsawed by tariffs.” However, she did suggest mortgage rates will be lower when the year ends.
“The economic situation is rapidly evolving. It’s hard to predict the direction of mortgage rates with any conviction,” Ng said. “Absent additional softness in data or unforeseen shocks, Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%.”
Another website that monitors the housing market, Realtor.com, cited the slight drop in the Freddie Mac weekly average Thursday, declaring, “Mortgage Rates Remain Nearly Steady Despite Market Tumult.”
Even so, Realtor.com said “‘uncertainty’ is the latest buzzword in the housing market and economy more generally as consumers try to navigate the impact of recent tariff policy changes,” and added that “consumers may be feeling justifiably fatigued.”