Idaho is the overwhelming favorite of Big Sky Conference football coaches to win this season's crown, while defending champion Nevada is seen as the runner-up.
None of the nine coaches attending this weekend's annual conference football kickoff doubt the title will be claimed by either the Vandals or the Wolf Pack from Reno.Seven chose Idaho first and Nevada second, while two reversed the predicted order of finish.
Last year, Nevada (7-1) won the Big Sky, finishing 13-2 after losing the I-AA championship 36-13 to Georgia Southern. Idaho, which shared second with Boise State at 6-2, bowed to Georgia Southern 28-27 in a semifinal.
Most coaches cite that near miss, and a favorable 1991 schedule, in making the Vandals their pre-season choice. Nevada travels to Moscow, Idaho, Nov. 5 for what could be the league's pivotal matchup.
But two coaches, including Idaho's John Smith, still favor Nevada.
"We're going to challenge for the championship. We've got them at home, so that's an advantage for us," Smith said. "But I would have to say Reno would be the team to beat because of what they did this last year."
Northern Arizona's Steven Axman also chose Nevada, but said it was a difficult call.
"I think Nevada has their program running pretty well and they did come off a good year," he said. "But Idaho, as good as they were, has a lot of talent coming back."
The majority, including Nevada coach Chris Ault, say it will be hard to counter Idaho's one-two offensive punch of wide receiver Kasey Dunn and running back Devon Pearce. Both return as seniors.
Last season, Dunn led the I-AA with 88 receptions for 1,164 yards and seven touchdowns. Pearce ran for 1,393 yards and 15 TDs, making him the division's No.2 rusher behind Grambling's Walter Dean (1,401 yards, 15 touchdowns.)
"The biggest key for us is to stay healthy," Smith said. "If we lose a couple guys we could go from being very good to bad real quick."
Ault says he can't count on injuries to pave the way for his Wolf Pack. But he's not counting his team out.
"The team to beat is Idaho. They've got a really fine nucleus coming back and the schedule is in their favor," Ault said. "But we're going to be in the thick of things. We plan on defending the title."
The Nevada coach takes heart in the return of Fred Gatlin at quarterback. As a sophomore Gatlin racked up 2,364 yards and 17 touchdowns passing. But Ault laments the graduation of his two starting wide receivers, Ross Ortega and Treamelle Taylor.
He counts on Nevada to shine on defense.
"All of our defensive backs are returning, and in a conference like this that's a real plus," Ault said.
While granting Idaho and Nevada the role of front-runners, none of the Big Sky coaches rules out a potential darkhorse - Boise State.
The Broncos ended the 1990 season at 10-4, exiting the I-AA playoffs with a 59-52 triple-overtime loss to Nevada. Six coaches listed BSU as the conference's third-strongest team.
Bronco coach Skip Hall tips his hat to Idaho and Nevada, but says he plans to "be in a position to make a run at things."
To help him do that, he'll have senior running back Chris Thomas, the league's No.2 rusher with 913 yards and eight TDs.
"It will be a very competitive league. It has strengthened itself from top to bottom," he said.
Others mentioned as possible challengers are Weber State and Montana.
Weber (3-5, 4-7) tied with Montana State, Eastern Washington and NAU for fifth last year, but returns the Big Sky's top 1990 quarterback - junior Jamie Martin (3,700 yards and 23 touchdown passes).
"In my opinion, Jamie Martin is as good a quarterback as there is in major college football," WSU coach Dave Arslanian said.
But he added it will take more than Martin to topple the favorites. Weber's graduation-depleted defense will have to grow up in a hurry.
"Everyone in our league has an explosive offense," Arslanian said. "But the teams that win consistently are those with good defenses."
Montana coach Don Read says his Grizzlies return a strong defense, but have to overcome the loss of starting quarterback Grady Bennett and his receiving corps if they are to make a run.
"That word `potential' scares you. Last year we had lots of talent but didn't have the year we wanted, but this year we have great potential," he said.