An allied deadline for removal of Iraqi anti-aircraft missiles passed Friday with signs Iraq was moving the missiles, but the White House remained unconvinced Saddam Hussein was actually obeying the Western ultimatum.
"There has been a good deal of movement involving these missiles, but we are still in the process of determining whether Iraq is in compliance with the terms of the coalition demarche (demand)," White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said in a statement just before the 3:30 p.m. MST deadline."We continue to keep the situation in Iraq under close scrutiny," he said.
As fears of an immediate military confrontation eased, Adm. David Jeremiah, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said there had been movement of both the missiles and Iraqi warplanes. The aircraft were based just north of the no-fly zone in southern Iraq.
"There is movement. . . . It may be positive. It may not be. We can't tell yet," Jeremiah said after the deadline passed.
A flurry of news reports cited unidentified U.S. officials as saying it appeared Iraq was pulling back the missiles considered a menace by the United States and its allies enforcing a "no-fly zone" over southern Iraq.
But bad weather over the area was hampering allied military reconnaissance. U.S. spokesmen said on the record it was impossible to tell whether the optimistic interpretation was correct and that a possible military showdown with Saddam had in fact been averted at the last moment.
The allied ultimatum demands the missiles be returned to their original position, which means some could stay in the no-fly zone but not in their recent threatening configuration, a senior administration official said.
"The missiles have moved. Clearly there's some kind of response but it's not conclusive at this point whether its full compliance," the official said in stressing the allies meant to remain vigilant and prepared to retaliate.
"We're prepared to respond (militarily) at any time we feel they've had time to respond and haven't done it," he said. "Second, we consider this demarche to be a permanent position so that an enforcement option is always relevant."
It was apparent however that due to the murkiness of the situation, the United States, for the moment at least, was staying its hand militarily.
Iraq said repeatedly Friday that it would not obey the ultimatum issued Wednesday - with a 48-hour deadline - by the United States, Britain and France with Russian backing.
Baghdad said it reserved the right to retaliate in kind against allied attack. It also barred United Nations planes from flying into the country, preventing the arrival of U.N. weapons destruction teams.
The gulf war allies banned Iraqi aircraft from flying south of the 32nd parallel last August in order to protect Iraqi Shiite Muslims then under attack by Baghdad's forces. That and another zone protecting Kurds in the north were imposed as part of the aftermath of the 1991 gulf war.
The United States has accused Iraq of repeatedly violating the southern zone in recent weeks and a U.S. F-16 fighter jet shot down an Iraqi MiG-25 over the zone Dec. 27.
President Bush met with national security advisers for an hour Friday morning and said in an afternoon speech they were deciding what to do if Iraq continued to defy the ultimatum.
"We're not threatening," Bush said in an interview conducted Thursday by David Frost for the BBC and aired in part Friday by CNN. "We're simply saying he (Saddam) is going to do it (withdraw the missiles), and he will."
The U.S. government has been trying to keep as low-key an atmosphere as possible in this crisis and Bush left for a weekend at his Camp David retreat at mid-afternoon.
The White House closed its press office for the evening shortly after the ultimatum deadline passed.
If military retaliation were eventually decided upon, defense officials said Bush has a wide range of retaliatory options including destruction of the SAM missile batteries and attacking Iraqi military airfields.
The United States, Britain and France have some 200 warplanes near Iraq, and Tomahawk cruise missiles can be launched from U.S. warships in the gulf.
Shortly before the deadline passed, CNN reported from the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk in the Persian Gulf that about 30 U.S. jet fighters and attack planes had taken off to patrol the no-fly zone despite thunderstorms.
But at the Pentagon, officials said the increased patrol - nearly double recent sorties over southern Iraq - did not signal an imminent strike.
In Texas Friday, President-elect Clinton underscored his support for Bush, whom he succeeds Jan. 20, saying they had consulted and their positions on the crisis are identical.