For the first time since World War II, Jordan School District is anticipating virtually no growth in its student population during the 1995-96 school year.
According to enrollment estimates, the school district will have 69 fewer students in September 1995 than in September 1994 - a loss of 0.1 percent.Enrollment in the state's second- largest school district is expected to be 70,691, compared with 70,760, which is the district's enrollment for the 1994-95 school year.
"It really means we're flat for the next year," said Earl Stuker, the district's director of administrative services.
Enrollment projections are flat despite the 12,500 building permits issued districtwide since 1991. The new houses built in the communities served by the Jordan District are generally more expensive second homes inhabited by older, more-established families, Stuker said.
Traditionally, the school district has estimated every home built in a new subdivision would generate one elementary school student and one-half of a secondary student. Recent trends indicate each new home generates only one-half student.
"What's surprising is the number of homes is not generating the numbers of children we're used to," said district spokeswoman Patty Dahl.
Recent economic trends portend slowing growth for the next year or two. With the recent increases in interest rates, municipalities are reporting fewer housing starts.
District officials had expected 900 more students in the 1994-95 school year than in the previous year. Instead, the district experienced an increase of 500 students, the vast majority in the west area of the school district.
At a time when enrollment appears to be holding steady, the district has five school buildings under construction - two high schools, a middle school and two elementary schools. Another middle school is in the bidding process.
Devon Sanderson, the district's business administrator, said three of the buildings under construction will replace older schools that do not meet seismic codes. The new Jordan High School, expected to be open for the 1995-96 school year, will replace a building constructed in 1913.
Despite the dips in expected enrollment, the school district is ripe for additional development. In the Salt Lake Valley, the remaining buildable land is in the valley's southeast, southwest and northwest regions, two of which are served by the Jordan School District.
"We're still sitting on a lot of potential development, from Draper in the southeast corner across to the west. We're watching that very carefully to see what we will have to do is as far as school construction goes," Sanderson said.
Districtwide, the largest numbers of students are in the sixth and seventh grades, which is termed a "bubble" by administrators. "This bubble is still going to require some additional growth, particularly at the secondary level," Sanderson said.
Stuker said for the first time in recent history, the incoming class is about the same size as the graduating senior class.
While the district may be in a lull, long-term projections indicate enrollment in the school district will top 81,000 by the year 2003. AP Associates, a consulting firm hired by the district, predicts a need to build 11 more schools within the next 10 years - six elementaries, three middle schools and two high schools.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
School enrollment
Jordan School District total enrollment over 10 years.
OCTOBER 1985 59,107
OCTOBER 1986 61,047
OCTOBER 1987 62,281
OCTOBER 1988 62,702
OCTOBER 1989 63,514
OCTOBER 1990 64,964
OCTOBER 1991 66,881
OCTOBER 1992 68,847
OCTOBER 1993 70,255
OCTOBER 1994 70,760
FALL 1995 70,691*
*Enrollment estimate
Source: Jordan School District