The Congress here is drafting a constitutional amendment that would allow Mexicans for the first time to hold dual nationality - a measure that could encourage millions of Mexicans now living in the United States to seek American citizenship.
Dubbed the "dual nationality initiative," the amendment would let Mexican immigrants in the United States and other countries adopt citizenship abroad, while keeping their Mexican passports and enjoying other rights of Mexican citizens - most likely with the exception of the right to vote in Mexico.Proponents of the measure, supported by all three major Mexican political parties and likely to become law later this year, say it is an attempt to modernize Mexico's archaic, chauvinistic nationality laws to catch up with First World countries that already permit dual citizenship.
But the amendment has sweeping implications - demographic and political - for the United States.
Some analysts say the new measure could create a powerful, new pro-Mexico lobby group in the United States. It also significantly could increase the workload for U.S. immigration authorities, as millions of Mexicans would qualify for residency under simpler categories.
The ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which has opposed such a measure for decades but now views the nationality issue as more than a mere reflection of the party's staunch nationalist roots, estimates that the amendment would affect more than 5 million Mexicans permanently residing in the United States. They qualify for U.S. citizenship but have not sought it.
Out of national pride, cultural identity or business concerns, they wanted to remain Mexican. The proposed amendment would essentially redefine what it means to be a Mexican, and would create a category of dual-nationals who would be exempt from restrictions on business activity and property ownership that are applied to foreigners.
Jorge Bustamante, whose Research Institute of the Northern Frontier in Tijuana has been studying the new measure for weeks, insisted that the PRI estimate of 5 million is grossly inflated.
Based on U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service data gathered by his researchers, he estimates that between 1.5 million and 2 million Mexicans in the United States would qualify.
In 1993, according to INS figures, 23,630 Mexicans became U.S. citizens. Over the previous decade, 203,000 had done so.
Bustamante said the new law's greatest impact would be in California.
"More than half of (those who could be affected) live in California," he said. "And 70 percent of (those) live in Los Angeles. Another quarter live in Texas, 8 percent in the Chicago area and most of the rest in New Mexico and Colorado."
Privately, U.S. officials dispute Bustamante's estimates. They say the number of Mexican U.S. residents affected by the proposed law could exceed even the PRI's estimate of 5 million. They also say the measure could have serious implications for the workload of immigration authorities here and in the United States.
If the amendment passes, they said, the INS is likely to be swamped, first with citizenship applications from Mexicans permanently residing in the United States, then with new immigration applications from their family members in Mexico; as relatives of U.S. citizens, those individuals would no longer be subject to immigration quotas and would circumvent a waiting list that now takes 15 to 18 years.
Politically, the dual-nationality initiative could have an even more profound impact on U.S. policy.
Several American analysts said they see a hidden agenda behind Mexico's multiparty support for the amendment. Several said they suspect that it is related to California's Proposition 187, which bars illegal immigrants from using most state services and programs, and what they called "Mexico-bashing" by the conservative right in the U.S. Congress.
"After Proposition 187 passed, the Mexican government has been looking for ways to create a more effective lobby group in the U.S.," said one analyst who asked not to be identified. "By encouraging qualified Mexicans resident in America to apply for U.S. citizenship, which will give them the right to vote in U.S. elections, Mexico stands to gain millions of new votes that could influence policy in Washington and states like California."
Specifically, such a voting bloc could influence congressional debates on such critical issues as President Clinton's $20 billion rescue package for Mexico's economy, anti-immigrant state initiatives such as Proposition 187 and any other state or federal legislation that affects migrants in the United States.
"This will not ensure that everybody will apply for citizenship, that they will vote, that they will vote along the lines of what we in Mexico would prefer, let alone what the government would prefer," Bustamante said, adding that he proposed the idea of dual nationality eight years ago. "Yet I think it's a good idea, because the politicians in the U.S. will have to take into account a new political cost of Mexico-bashing."
The measure's authors deny that their motives are political. They note that, under the proposed law, the most profound change for Mexicans who choose U.S. citizenship would be their ability to vote in U.S. elections.
Bustamante is among those who believe that national pride - combined with a deep prejudice here against those who abandon Mexico - is the strongest factor keeping Mexicans who qualify for U.S. citizenship from seeking it. With the dual-nationality initiative, lawmakers here hope to eliminate that prejudice.
Bustamante and others see another powerful force at work as well. The dual-nationality initiative comes against the backdrop of new fears in the United States' Mexican community that the conservative U.S. Congress will curb their rights unless they elevate their status from U.S. residents to U.S. citizens, he said.
The INS "already reports a dramatic increase in applications for citizenship even without dual nationality," Bustamante said. "If you add to that this initiative, which leaves them with nothing to lose in Mexico and everything to gain in the U.S., it could certainly happen that the majority will make the change."