Four months before the Nov. 5 election, Bob Dole shows signs of bringing home Republican voters to his fold, yet he faces an uphill challenge to break President Clinton's grip on the Electoral College.
The president's strength is anchored in electoral giants California and New York, which together carry nearly one-third of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Elsewhere, Clinton leads comfortably throughout most of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and industrial Midwest.Indeed, if the election were held today, most analysts believe Clinton would get well in excess of 300 electoral votes, perhaps close to 400, of the 538 divided among states based on their congressional delegation size.
"One has to assume the race will tighten and ultimately come down to the big industrial states," said Andrew Kohut, a pollster with the independent Pew Research Center. "But before that can happen, Dole has to get on more solid footing in the traditionally Republican Southern and Mountain states."
Conventional wisdom has held that Republicans enjoy a natural Electoral College advantage. That's not the case in 1996.
Dole's challenge is perhaps best illustrated by his problems in the two big states that are the foundation of any GOP electoral formula: Texas and Florida. While both have deep Republican traditions in recent presidential elections, polling in both states shows Clinton and Dole in a dead heat. Dole also started the month trailing in Ohio; no Republican has won the presidency without winning this key Midwestern state.
Clinton, on the other hand, has had the advantage of directing millions of dollars in primary campaign and Democratic Party funds to television advertising designed to protect his lead in general election battlegrounds. "A good portion of the lead the president enjoys is a direct result" of those ads, said Democratic National Committee Chairman Donald Fow-ler.
Given Clinton's financial strategy, some Republicans voice relief the Democratic incumbent's lead isn't more lopsided.
Of states outside the Midwest that Clinton carried in 1992, the Republican targets include Nevada, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee and Kentucky. It is hard to envision Dole winning in November without putting most of those states back in the GOP column - and the more time and money Dole has to spend fighting for them means fewer resources for the industrial Midwest states.
Clinton's big early electoral lead is a factor in virtually every major Dole campaign decision.
Dole's schedule in the month since he quit the Senate, for example, has targeted predominantly Republican areas of battleground states to solidify GOP support. Talk of moving up the unveiling of his tax-cutting economic plan to mid-July instead of August also is driven by dismay in the Dole camp that he hasn't cut deeper into Clinton's lead. Dole's decision on a running mate also will be influenced by his standing a month from now.
Republicans once had the goal of pulling even with Clinton by their August nominating convention; now the hope is to get Dole up to 43 percent or so in national polls to show the GOP base solidly behind his candidacy.
"We are a second-half team," said Georgia Republican chairman Rusty Paul.
Clinton's electoral targeting is in some ways more difficult than for Dole because he is competitive in many traditionally Republican bastions. The president, for example, is reluctant to accept advice he cede Texas to Dole.
Also, Clinton advisers - who at the start of the year predicted Clinton would have little chance of winning Georgia and Louisiana again - now favor keeping those states on an early target list that includes 32 states Clinton won in 1992 plus Texas, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
"It is the best of all problems to have," said Clinton deputy campaign manager Ann Lewis. "But eventually budget and targeting decisions have to be made."
One big uncertainty in midsummer is whether Dole will follow through on his commitment to run a full-fledged campaign in California.
"When President Bush walked away from California, the results for Republicans were devastating," said state GOP chairman John Herrington. "It is no longer in doubt that Bob Dole will not repeat that mistake."
If California became competitive, marginal states on Clinton's early list would likely be dumped. Dole, too, would have fewer resources - and less margin of error in his electoral formula - if he goes all-out for California.
As for Perot's Reform Party, with Richard Lamm carrying the banner, Clinton strategists predict the former Colorado governor would draw mostly from upscale independents. Perot is more of a threat to draw downscale blue-collar votes that otherwise would go predominantly to Clinton.
In any case, "a serious independent or third party effort is a bigger problem for Dole because he is behind," said pollster Kohut. "Dole needs all those votes."
In any case, "a serious independent or third party effort is a bigger problem for Dole because he is behind," said pollster Kohut. "Dole needs all those votes."
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
How states are leaning
A look at how the Electoral College battle is shaping up, four months before the Clinton-Dole match-up in the November general election. It takes a majority, or 270, electoral votes to win the presidency.
States were categorized based on most recent polling data, interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists and, in cases where recent polling data were not available, on historic trends. The Reform Party candidacy is not taken into account.
The states are categorized on the assumption the election was held now.
Likely Democratic, 247 votes: California, Washington, Oregon, Arkansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, West Virginia, Hawaii, District of Columbia.
Leaning Democratic, 71 votes: Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado.
Likely Republican, 100 votes: Utah, Kansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Nebraska, Indiana, Alabama, Alaska, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota.
Leaning Republican, 43 votes: Texas, Arizona, Wyoming.
Toss-up, 77 votes: Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire.
Clinton clinched 370 of 538 votes
Bill Clinton won 32 states and 370 of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency in 1992. A look at the Clinton-Bush electoral breakdown:
CLINTON, 370 votes: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.
BUSH, 168 votes: Utah, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska.
Ross Perot was on all 50 state ballots as an independent candidate but did not win any states and therefore did not receive any electoral votes.