A Republican candidate running as an underdog? In Utah politics, that happens about as often as a snowstorm in July.
But Scott Burns, the Iron County attorney trying to unseat Democratic Attorney General Jan Graham, finds himself in an unsettling situation with little more than two months before the election. Not only is he down by 28 points in recent opinion polls, but he lags way behind Graham in raising campaign funds."We're up to approximately $100,000," Burns said optimistically. "And we have a couple more big fund-raisers scheduled."
But that sum pales in comparison to the $750,000 now in Graham's campaign war chest - much of it coming from Republicans. "Easily, the majority of my money comes from Republicans," Graham said.
Despite the fact that well over $1 million could be spent by the two candidates before November, the race has garnered little public attention. Neither candidate has mounted a serious bid to thrust the AG's race into the public spotlight, and both agree it is just too soon to start spending money on television sound bites and billboards.
Burns chafes a bit when he talks about the free publicity Graham gets at press conferences. "The benefit of being the incumbent," he said.
Burns came within a percentage point of beating Graham four years ago, but the name recognition of that campaign may not have persisted. According to a recent Deseret News/KSL poll, Burns has remarkably low name recognition. Furthermore, approximately one-half of those who consider themselves conservative intended to vote for Graham, and more than one-third of those who consider themselves Republicans said they would vote for the Democrat.
Not to worry, Burns said. "All I have to compare it against was the 1992 race, and I am way ahead of where I was at this time, with a month to go and still close to within a half a point on Election Day. It was a successful campaign given the time we had to raise money and get my message out."
Primaries in 1992 were in September, leaving little time between the primary and general elections. This year, the primaries were moved to June, and Burns said that has given him enough time to raise campaign funds and compete for media attention. Some of that attention will likely come from a series of public debates between the two candidates.
The election could well come down to how well other Republicans do in Utah. Presidential candidate Bob Dole will likely win Utah, and Burns makes no secret he wants to ride those coattails. But he knows he has to remind voters that he is the Republican.
It's a political advantage Burns has that Graham does not underestimate. "But I think we are in a unique position in that my support comes from both Republicans and Democrats," she said.
In an effort to remind voters that he is the Republican, Burns has enlisted the support of Sen. Orrin Hatch, who helped Burns with the two fund-raisers to date. And a September fund-raiser will feature high-profile Republicans Gov. Mike Leavitt and former Sen. Jake Garn, as well as Hatch.
The October fund-raiser will be targeted at Utah's legal community. An interesting twist on the event: One of the attorneys organizing it is Mary Anne Wood, the private anti-abortion attorney who was fired two years ago by Graham when the AG decided to handle the case with her existing staff.
"That doesn't surprise me," Graham said of Wood's involvement in the campaign, adding it might inject a little more public interest into the race.
"But I do not believe there is a lack of interest," she said. "Rather, there is a real appreciation on the part of the public as to what we have done. We have the most visible and well-known AG's office in the history of the state."
While Graham calls the lack of hoopla a silent endorsement of her administration, Burns calls it public apathy in an administration that has done little but hold press conferences.
"If I can get my message out that I am a prosecutor who has real experience with criminal-justice problems, we have an excellent chance of winning," he said. "The only way we will be in trouble is if no one hears the name Scott Burns and what he stands for."
Right or wrong, in today's political arena, name recognition comes from advertising. And Burns has found it more difficult to raise money from organizations, law firms and special interests.
And he is worried about rumors he has heard that "she intends to spend me into the ground. They have a lot of money and they could probably do that."
Graham says she has never made that statement. "It would be an arrogant thing to say. We formulated our campaign budget last year before we knew who our opponent was going to be."
Burns hopes to raise $300,000 to $400,000 by October, whereas Graham has already surpassed her campaign target of $650,000.