Monday, investors finally got the message.
For months, Wall Street has all but ignored warnings that the Asian financial crisis could end the longest-running bull market in U.S. history. But panic selling of the Japanese yen and reports of lower profits by companies that export to the region hammered home the message that the U.S. economy is increasingly vulnerable to the economic disaster that has spread throughout Asia.By the market's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had tumbled 207.01 points, to 8,627.93. It was the fifth-worst point loss ever in a single day, though the 2.3 percent drop did not come close to breaking into the top 10 percentage declines.
The slide came just one month after the Dow hit an all-time high of 9,211.84, slashing the market's gain for all of 1998 from 16.5 percent on May 13 to 9 percent.
"We're seeing one-third of the world's economy in a depression, and that has to have a major impact on the rest of the world," Larry Horwitz, managing director at Primark Decision Economics in Boston.
The gloom on Wall Street prompted some analysts to speculate that stocks could fall another 3 percent to 5 percent before investors are reassured that corporate profits are rebounding and that Asia's economic difficulties have hit bottom.
"There is probably a few more percent left on the downside before people say there is enough value in the market to step back in," said Arun Kumar, senior stock startegist at Lehman Brothers in New York.
The Asian financial crisis also continued to affect markets around the world. Key stock indexes in Hong Kong and Bangkok tumbled nearly 6 percent. In Tokyo, the Nikkei stock average fell 1.3 percent.
Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's main index fell 4.8 percent, the Philippines' fell 4.5 percent, Malaysian shares fell more than 4 percent, and Singapore's fell 3.5 percent. In Europe, Frankfurt's DAX index fell 2.5 percent and London's 100 stock index fell 0.9 percent.
Despite months of turmoil in Asia, the U.S. market has continued to benefit from a strong economy. Unemployment is at a 27-year low, and consumer confidence is high. The Federal Reserve Board, assured inflation remains in check, decided recently that it would not raise interest rates. Oil prices, meanwhile, hit a 12-year low Monday, further confirming that an inflationary spike is not likely.
The Asian slump has actually helped keep inflation low by reducing the costs of imports from Asia purchased by American consumers and pressuring U.S. manufacturers to lower their prices. But at the same time, the weak Japanese yen and a contracting Asian economy has begun to reduce demand for U.S. exports, particularly in the high-tech sector. As a result, after double-digit growth each quarter in 1997, profits grew at a much slower 1.2 percent pace in the first quarter of this year.
Monday's sharp market decline came on reports of lower second-quarter profits by Millipore Corp. and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing Co. due to declining sales to their Asian customers. Notably, 3M, which relies on Asia for one-quarter of its profits, had the biggest decline among the 30 stocks in the Dow index; 3M was down 5 13/16, closing at 81.
Another Dow average company with exposure in Asia, J.P. Morgan & Co., saw its stock fall 23/4 to 1187/8. The bank earned more than half of its revenues outside the United States in the first quarter. Many other companies are expected to report similar earnings declines in upcoming weeks.
"Corporate profits are under enormous pressure right now," said Horwitz.
The bond market is also under extreme pressure as the world's investors buy up bonds in this country, seeking a safe haven for their money at a time overseas markets are in turmoil.
The biggest force driving up U.S. bond prices Monday was a free-fall in the Japanese yen. Traders have fled the yen due to reports that Japan's economy is suffering its worst economic crisis in the post-war period and that it is worsening. Government officials in Japan declared last week that the world's second-largest economy is officially in a recession.
Investors pushed up prices of 30-year, Treasury bonds and drove their interest rates to an all-time low of 5.57 percent - breaking the 5.65 percent level set last Thursday.
"The yen is in free fall, so what you have is investors from Latin America and Asia buying Treasuries at any price just to get their money in some stable currencuy," said Ben Hock, who manages a $800 million mutual fund for John Hancock Funds.
For now, investors are still surveying the damage in U.S. stock markets. But some analysts said the long-term prospects for U.S. and world markets remain bright.
Mark Madden, who heads emerging markets investing at Pioneer Funds in Boston, predicted that low interest rates in the United States and Europe were the strongest single force keeping Western economies strong. He said that even if Asian economies do not recover quickly, financial markets could rebound quickly. Europe's bull market and liquidity in both US and European markets, Madden said, would eventually "spill back into the Asian markets."