Who ever said art and commerce don't mix? For the second year in a row, it looks like the film that ruled the box office will also rule the Academy Awards.
"Saving Private Ryan," which recently passed "Armageddon" to become last year's box-office leader, should be a lock to win the Best Picture Oscar when the awards are handed out Sunday night.In fact, many of the other Oscar wars look to be over as well. Steven Spielberg's "war movie to end all war movies" will probably take home quite a few Academy Awards, despite its having received fewer nominations than "Shakespeare in Love" (11 and 13, respectively).
And speaking of the latter, "Shakespeare in Love" could make hay in Oscar's acting categories, with nominees in three of the four slots.
Admittedly, I am a little hesitant to make Oscar predictions this year, after my near perfect attempts from the year before (eight of nine categories). But there are some that I feel confident enough to call:
BEST PICTURE
NOMINATED: "Elizabeth," "Life is Beautiful," "Saving Private Ryan," "Shakespeare in Love," "The Thin Red Line."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "The General," "Rushmore," "A Simple Plan," "The Truman Show."
WHAT WILL WIN: Epics have been winning in this category lately, and "Saving Private Ryan" is as epic as things get.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: "Shakespeare in Love" was less manipulative and more satisfying. But it'll score in other categories.
BEST ACTOR
NOMINATED: Roberto Benigni, "Life is Beautiful"; Tom Hanks, "Saving Pri-
vate Ryan"; Ian McKellen, "Gods and Monsters"; Nick Nolte, "Affliction"; Edward Norton, "American History X."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jim Carrey, "The Truman Show"; Brendan Gleeson, "The General"; John Hurt, "Love and Death on Long Island."
WHO WILL WIN: It's a two-man race between Nolte and McKellen in the Highly Dysfunctional category. But Nolte's is the showier role; look for him to win.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Norton for his astonishingly convincing portrayal of a skinhead who repents.
BEST ACTRESS
NOMINATED: Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth"; Fernanda Montenegro, "Central Station"; Gwyneth Paltrow, "Shakespeare in Love"; Meryl Streep, "One True Thing"; Emily Watson, "Hilary and Jackie."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Christina Ricci, "The Opposite of Sex"; Oprah Winfrey, "Beloved."
WHO WILL WIN: It's probably a two-woman race between Blanchett and Paltrow, two rising stars. But Paltrow is Hollywood's It Girl of the moment.
WHO SHOULD WIN: In essence, Paltrow played four roles in the film. She's deserving.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINATED: James Coburn, "Affliction"; Robert Duvall, "A Civil Action"; Ed Harris, "The Truman Show"; Geoffrey Rush, "Shakespeare in Love"; Billy Bob Thornton, "A Simple Plan."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Giorgio Cantarini, "Life is Beautiful"; Bill Murray, "Rushmore"; Jon Voight, "The General."
WHO WILL WIN: A hard one to call, with sympathy running to both Coburn and Thornton, and Rush could have been nominated for parts he played in two other films, as well. Harris, though, should take home "The Truman Show's" only trophy.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Thornton, who transcended a bad wig and dental appliance with his heartbreakingly credible portrayal of yet another slow-witted character.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINATED: Kathy Bates, "Primary Colors"; Brenda Blethyn, "Little Voice"; Judi Dench, "Shakespeare in Love"; Rachel Griffiths, "Hilary and Jackie"; Lynn Redgrave, "Gods and Monsters."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Lisa Kudrow, "The Opposite of Sex."
WHO WILL WIN: Dench should have won for her performance in last year's "Mrs. Brown." The academy will likely make up for the slight.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Dench had the tiniest role of the five in this category -- but, oh, what she did with that short time!
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINATED: Roberto Benigni, "Life is Beautiful"; Steven Spielberg, "Saving Private Ryan"; John Madden, "Shakespeare in Love"; Terrence Malick, "The Thin Red Line"; Peter Weir, "The Truman Show."
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Wes Anderson, "Rushmore"; John Boorman, "The General."
WHO WILL WIN: Spielberg. 'Nuff said.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Weir, for coaxing a terrific performance out of Jim Carrey and crafting such a nicely structured film.
OTHER SURE BETS
Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, for Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen: "Shakespeare in Love"; "Life is Beautiful" as Best Foreign Film; John Williams for Best Original Score: "Saving Private Ryan"; "When You Believe" as Best Original Song, from "The Prince of Egypt."