Rep. Merrill Cook is in real political trouble, a new Deseret News poll shows.
The survey of 2nd Congressional District adults shows that 58 percent don't want Cook to seek re-election this year. Yet the congressman says he will run.
And in a head-to-head matchup with Democrat Jim Matheson, Cook gets only 35 percent of the vote compared to Matheson's 52 percent, the survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates found.
When Cook is pitted against potential GOP challengers, he does better.
But the two-term incumbent never gets above 50 percent support, even among Republicans or conservatives or those who told Jones they vote strongly Republican. (State Sen. Steve Poulton, R-Holladay, was included in the survey. Poulton announced while the poll was being conducted that he wouldn't run for the 2nd District this year.)
In addition, Cook's job approval ratings have dropped even lower than they were a year ago, when Cook had received a spate of negative publicity after an impressive 10-percentage-point win in November 1998 over Democratic challenger Lily Eskelsen.
A year ago 32 percent of 2nd District constituents approved of Cook's job performance. Now it's only 29 percent.
For an incumbent, all of the poll numbers should be discouraging, said Jones, who has polled in Utah for more than 25 years.
However, in response to the figures, Cook told the Deseret News, "These poll numbers will change very rapidly and drastically as we supply information to the public and the (Republican state) delegates on what I've done for them — especially on taxes, health care, Social Security and my lock box proposals, veterans and the environment.
"I'm serious when I say that I'm surprised I'm not even lower" in the poll numbers "the job approval ratings and the naked re-elect, because over the past year the public has been fed an image of me (that is) inaccurate and unflattering."
Swing district
"There is no question that Rep. Cook has a tough row to hoe," said Jones. What should be of most concern to Cook, 11 months from Election Day, is that only 23 percent of his constituents want him to
run again — while 58 percent don't, Jones said.
That's called a "naked re-elect" and measures a candidate's baseline popularity. Relatively popular incumbents look for a favorable naked re-elect of over 50 percent. At the very least, you don't want those who don't want you to run again to be greater than 50 percent.
Cook having most of his constituents not wanting him to run again "is a tremendous amount of support that he has to gain," Jones said.
But Cook was unfazed by the numbers, even combative. He warned Utah Republicans not to dump him in a convention or primary.
"This race is too big a deal — one of the biggest in the nation this year, biggest in Utah, certainly." Other Republican candidates for the 2nd District can't pull it off, Cook said, and the price of losing the U.S. House to Democrats "is too big if they blow this one.
"Historically, when Republicans abandon their incumbent (in Utah races), they lose. I'm the only Republican who can defeat a strong Democratic opponent."
With only a five-vote swing majority in the U.S. House, a number of people are looking at vulnerable House Republicans in 2000. "Mine is not only a swing district, but we'll make it clear to delegates and primary voters that a vote for Cook" is a vote to retain the House in GOP hands "and for Speaker (Dennis) Hastert. A vote any other way is a vote for (Democratic control) and a speaker Richard Gephardt," the Democratic minority leader of the House.
Matheson encouraged
Cook left the Republican Party in 1988 and in several elections ran for governor and the 2nd Congressional District as an independent. He received a significant percent of the independent vote in those elections.
Cook rejoined the Republican Party in 1995 and, again, got a healthy slice of independent voters in his 1996 and 1998 2nd District victories.
But Jones found in the new poll that 61 percent of people who said they are independent voters support Matheson. Only 27 percent of the independents picked Cook.
And even 21 percent of the Republicans said they favored Matheson, while Cook got just 7 percent support from Democrats, the survey found.
A weak showing among independents is trouble in the 2nd District, which, while Republican overall, has more Democrats and independents than Utah's other two U.S. House seats.
Matheson said the poll results "are great news for me." The son of the late Utah Gov. Scott M. Matheson, he said he has conducted no polls himself.
"I've been concentrating almost exclusively on fund raising," Matheson said. His new Federal Election Commission filing, due the end of the month, will show he has around $200,000 in cash on hand and has raised $230,000 since he entered the race eight months ago, he said. Last year's FEC filing showed Matheson had more cash on hand than Cook.
But Cook is picking up his fund raising. He will have House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., out in Utah for a fund raiser Jan. 20, with more planned this spring. Cook declined to say how much money he's raised to date, or how much he has in cash. "We believe we'll raise $50,000 at the speaker's event, and that won't show up" on FEC reports due the end of the month.
"But in 1999 I've raised more money than any other Republican congressman in the history of Utah. We're blazing (fund-raising) trails here, and people need to know that," Cook said.
Vulnerable Republicans
Matheson, who ran an energy consulting company before closing it to concentrate on his 2nd District race, said he doesn't see his strength in the new poll only as an anti-Cook vote.
"I suppose there is some combination of that" in the numbers, Matheson said. But if there was a large anti-Cook vote in there "you would see more undecideds in the sample." With only a 12 percent "don't know" among those questioned, Matheson believes "I have substantial support of my own."
Matheson said he's especially pleased in his showing "because I've been low-profile, concentrating on fund raising and organization" over the last several months. "As the spring progresses, you'll be hearing more from me." But he won't be criticizing Cook, he added.
First off, Cook may not be the Republicans' nominee, so why waste time and money going against someone who won't be there in November? "And I have to let people know about me, who I am. So that's what I'll be concentrating on this spring."
For some time various political groups have listed Cook's re-election in 2000 as one of the races to watch this year. Now Congressional Quarterly, a magazine that reports on Congress, in its latest issue lists Cook as the No. 1 most vulnerable Republican in 2000. Not a distinction any candidate wants.
CQ goes on to say that considering that only about 10 percent of the 435 House districts are "competitive" — that is, the incumbent has even a chance of losing re-election — the narrow five-vote majority the Republicans hold in the House now will be decided in about 30 House races across the nation.
But Jones says don't count Cook out. "He always does better in an election" than polls show. "And he's a very hard worker. But he'll have to do much better among the independents, and the Republicans have to come home," Jones said.