We all knew Utah was Republican Country. But it's also George W. Bush Country, a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.
As the Texas governor visits Utah Thursday for an airport rally in Provo, an overnight survey, conducted Wednesday, shows Bush handily beating fellow Republicans Sen. John McCain and Alan Keyes in Friday's first-ever Utah presidential primary.And against the now-clear Democratic Party nominee, Vice President Al Gore, Bush does very well, too.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey for the newspaper shows that if November's general election were today, Bush would beat Gore here, 59 percent to 27 percent.
(Unrelated to the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll, a telephone turn-out-the-vote effort by Bush campaign workers was conducted in Utah Wednesday night.)
Democrat Bill Bradley left the presidential race Thursday morning. And McCain "suspended" his campaign Thursday, too. See Race over for Bradley and then McCain.
McCain can still raise money, but he won't actively participate in the Western States Presidential Primary in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming Friday or be in the Southern states' primary next Tuesday.
Both candidates' actions Thursday throw a wet blanket on Utah's Friday election.
And while 55 percent of the adults in Jones' survey Wednesday said they were "very likely" to vote Friday, the actual number will be much lower, election officials predict.
"No matter what they (Bradley and McCain) do with their campaigns, we are still going to count their votes" Friday, said state elections director Amy Naccarato Wednesday afternoon. Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. Friday.
Still, Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt said Thursday morning the primary remains important.
Speaking from Denver where he was waiting to ride on Bush's campaign plane to Provo, Leavitt said Friday's vote in Utah "is very important for the West. We have a chance to express our voice for the nomination for the leader of the free world. It's an important step for us."
Leavitt said he had not yet spoken to Bush Thursday but would during the plane ride.
"You know, he's coming to Utah on the day when he can, for the first time, speak with certainty as his party's nominee for president. Wow! That address (at the Provo airport), he'll remember that for the rest of his life. And we're a part of it because of the (Western primary). That's significant."
Leavitt said he "has conflicting feelings" over Friday's vote coming, as it now appears, after the nominations are set. "We scheduled it for March 10 because we wanted the (Western) Democrats to be with us," and national Democratic rules didn't allow a binding vote before March 7.
"Maybe we (Western states Republicans) should have gone alone earlier, maybe we should have joined in the March 7 vote" in 16 primaries and caucuses, which put Gore over the top in the Democratic contest and pushed McCain from the race, Leavitt said.
But the best solution, he added, would be for Congress and the states to adopt a rotating, regional presidential primary system. "We have to do something about the front-loading of the presidential nomination -- it's decided so early" and without the real participation of so many Americans, he said.
The 1999 Utah Legislature appropriated $600,000 to pay for Friday's vote in the state. Naccarato said most or all of those funds will actually be spent as the 29 county clerks organize for the election.
And if only 10 percent or 15 percent of voters turn out after Bradley's and McCain's announcements Thursday morning, no doubt there will be second-guessers.
But, Leavitt said, the cost "is certainly worth it to me" because Utahns will, for the first time, be voting in a presidential primary. "It's a step, and I believe a worthy step."
On the Republican ballot will be Bush, McCain, Keyes and several other former GOP presidential candidates who have already dropped out but asked that their names appear and their votes be counted, Naccarato said.
On the Democratic ballot will be Gore and Bradley.
There is also an Independent American Party ballot with two candidates on it.
Any registered voter can vote in the Independent American race. But only registered Democrats and independents can vote in the Democratic primary, and only registered Republicans and independents can vote in the Republican primary.
Jones found that a quarter of the people who said they planned to vote Friday were turned off by the closed primary system and having to ask publicly for a Republican or Democratic ballot. But 56 percent said having to identify themselves with a political party at the polls makes no difference to them.
Finally, McCain has throughout the primary season received considerable support from political independents. In fact, in the few states where he beat Bush, he did it with Democratic and independent voters coming into an open GOP primary.
Jones found that Utah independents also like McCain. McCain receives 42 percent of the independent voters who said they would pick up a Republican ballot Friday. Bush receives 36 percent of the independent vote, Jones found.