WASHINGTON — The race for control of the U.S. Senate remains a dead heat with less than three days of campaigning remaining, and both parties are making desperate efforts to gain the slight advantage that would propel them to power.
In the equally tight battle for control of the House, analysts say it will take the political equivalent of filling an inside straight for the Democrats to take control of the chamber.
But as the battle for control of Congress moves into its final stretch, Americans believe that Democrats and Republicans have failed to offer a clear vision about how they would lead the nation, the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll shows.
The poll also found an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans in their perception of the state of the nation and the problems it faces this fall. More than twice as many Republicans as Democrats — 63 percent compared with 27 percent — said the country was heading in the right direction. Democrats were twice as likely as Republicans to say the economy was the primary issue that would determine their vote.
These findings come in the closing days of a campaign that has failed to stir much interest among voters. Nearly half said they were less enthusiastic about voting this time than they have been in past congressional campaigns.
Most analysts, when pressed, predict that both chambers will remain in the same hands, with small changes in the margin of control. But with Democratic control of the Senate hanging by a single seat, and the Republican House majority vulnerable in about a half-dozen districts, the outcome is impossible to predict.
As the fierce partisan deadlock of the 2000 elections fades from Americans' memories, the only thing pollsters and analysts seem certain about is that Tuesday's vote for control of Congress will be just as close.
"We're talking about 25,000 votes nationwide determining the control of both the House and the Senate," said a political analyst at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato.
He predicted that a half-dozen House races could each be decided by as few as 1,000 votes and that Senate contests in a handful of states could swing on just a few thousand ballots. Voter turnout will be a key factor.
The country is still closely divided, and more than a dozen House and Senate races that could determine which party controls the chambers are still too close to call. Results of some races may not be known for days, as absentee ballots are counted. Already, Republicans are grumbling about voter registration fraud, and Democrats are complaining of voter intimidation.
Party activists are concerned about the efficiency of voting machines in Florida. Third-party candidates could swing elections where the Democrat and Republican contenders are neck-and-neck.
"In recent history it's never been the case that there's such complete parity between the two parties nationally. It's possible that the elections bring the parties into even closer parity. We are simply fighting each other to a draw, at least here in Washington," said Jim Jordan, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Both parties sought to nationalize the election. Republicans hoped to cash in on the national security issue, and Democrats thought they had a galvanizing issue in the ailing economy.
Several Senate races were marked by scandal or tragedy, and the ramifications all worked to the Democrats' initial advantage.
When New Jersey Democratic Senator Robert Torricelli abandoned his flagging reelection campaign, Democrats replaced him on the ballot with former senator Frank Lautenberg, who is now comfortably ahead in polls. A plane crash last week killed Sen. Paul Wellstone, who was in a tough fight for re-election in Minnesota, and Democrats nominated former vice president Walter Mondale, who is leading slightly in the polls.
Anger at an Arkansas Republican senator, Tim Hutchinson, who left his wife for a young staff member, has buoyed Democrat Mark Pryor and made Hutchinson the GOP's most vulnerable Senate incumbent.
A Democratic majority in the House would mean President Bush would have a harder time getting his agenda approved, while a GOP takeover in the Senate would make it easier for the president to win approval of judicial nominees. But since it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster in the Senate, even a GOP-run Congress could not give Bush everything he wants.
The outlook for legislation: more gridlock.
"Tuesday's election is very unlikely to alter the structure of domestic politics," said Thomas E. Mann, a political analyst with the Brookings Institution. "We're still a 50-50 country."
While the House races mainly garner local attention, the quest to control the Senate has made its mark on the national radar. Regionally, the Senate races break down as follows:
New England — The New Hampshire race, in which Republicans were once favored, is now considered one of the Democrats' better chances to keep or expand their slim majority in the Senate. Republican Representative John Sununu, son of the former governor, appeared headed toward a win against Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. But to the surprise of both parties, Sununu is facing a tough fight and has found himself on the defensive on issues like the future of Social Security. Analysts say the Granite State's changing demographics and fierce independence have boosted Shaheen, while Sununu — despite his family name — has not defined himself with voters.
New Hampshire's 1st District congressional race was thought to be in play, with well-funded Democrat Martha Fuller Clark seeking to take the seat vacated by Sununu. But the GOP candidate, Jeb Bradley, is running a strong, antitax campaign and was leading in recent polls.
Maine, with its close party division, once concerned White House strategists, who thought GOP Senator Susan Collins might be in danger of losing to Democrat Chellie Pingree. But while Pingree impressed Washington politicos and elected officials, many of whom campaigned or raised cash for her, she hasn't made the same inroads among the voters. Barring a huge upset, Collins appears headed for a second term.
Maine's 2d District congressional race, between Republican Kevin Raye and Democrat Mike Michaud, represents the GOP's best chance to pick up a seat in New England. Representative John Baldacci, a Democrat, is running for Governor.
In Connecticut, redistricting pitted Republican Representative Nancy Johnson against Representative James Maloney, a Democrat. Johnson appeared to have the upper hand.
Northeast — The New Jersey race might have been the Senate Democrats' worst nightmare; now, it looks as if it may save them. Incumbent Torricelli, battling corruption charges, watched his popularity slump this fall. Republicans grew increasingly confident that they could win with Doug Forrester, a relative unknown. But Torricelli dropped out of the race, and New Jersey Democrats replaced him with Lautenberg. The race is considered close, but Lautenberg is favored. In New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, Democrats are scrambling to take critical House seats. Long Island Representative Felix Grucci, a Republican whose family is well-known for its fireworks business, wasn't on either party's radar screens as a possible loser. But then Grucci alienated voters by running ads that accused his opponent, former college provost Tim Bishop, of insufficient concern about rape. Now, Grucci is fighting to keep his job.
Pennsylvania GOP Representative George Gekas is also vulnerable, facing an unexpectedly strong challenge by Democrat Tim Holden.
Democrats also hope to oust Maryland Representative Connie Morella. Democrats in the House like Morella, who often votes with them, but they argue that the most important vote is the one for House speaker. The seat being vacated by Republican Bob Erlich, who is running for governor, also represents a potential pick-up for Democrats, who have put up Dutch Ruppersberger against former GOP representative Helen Bentley.
South — In Arkansas, Hutchinson is considered the Republicans' most vulnerable Senate incumbent, largely because of the circumstances of his divorce and remarriage. It doesn't help that Hutchinson faces Mark Pryor, the son of a popular former senator, David Pryor. A loss for the Republicans here could undermine GOP hopes of taking back the Senate.
In North Carolina, former Clinton administration official Erskine Bowles might overtake the lead of Elizabeth Dole, who was considered a safe bet just a few weeks ago. Dole, the wife of former senator Bob Dole, has been hurt by accusations that she has spent too much time out of the state, but she is still favored to win. Democrats hope a strong get-out-the-vote effort, particularly among Hispanics, will help them take the 8th District House seat from GOP Representative Robin Hayes, who is being challenged by Democrat Chris Kouri.
Democrats hope to send an unprecedented five African-Americans to Congress from Georgia, but negative ads against Democrat Champ Walker are hurting him in the state's 12th District race against Max Burns. Meanwhile, Republicans are angling for an upset defeat of Senator Max Cleland, the Democratic incumbent being challenged by GOP Representative Saxby Chambliss.
In Florida, Representative Karen Thurman, a Democrat, is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Ginny Browne-Waite, a Republican state senator.
Midwest — In Minnesota, Mondale is ending a one-week campaign as a replacement for Wellstone. Mondale was doing well in polls taken soon after his candidacy was announced, but Republicans see an opportunity to elect Norm Coleman. Bush is scheduled to campaign for Coleman Sunday.
In Missouri, Sen. Jean Carnahan — who took her husband's place when he was killed in a plane crash in 2000 — remains the Democrats' most vulnerable Senate incumbent. Her challenger, former representative James Talent, has emphasized his longer record in public service, but Carnahan may get a slight benefit if Wellstone's death triggers voter sympathy.
South Dakota's Senate race is one of the hottest in the country, and voters in the sparsely populated state have been hit with 29,000 ads on the race in last past year. While neither Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson nor GOP Rep. John Thune is well-known outside South Dakota, they are popular in the state. Both President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a South Dakota Democrat, have made the race a priority.
In Iowa, Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, appears poised for re-election despite earlier signs of vulnerability.
West — Colorado, with a strong independent vote, a significant Hispanic vote and many new voters, has perhaps the closest Senate race in the country. Senator Wayne Allard, a Republican, is drawing just 39-43 percent support in opinion polls, dangerously low for an incumbent, and faces a strong challenge from Tom Strickland, whose Marlboro Man looks and style make him a potential poster model for the Rocky Mountain state.
Still, Strickland is neck-and-neck in the polls against Allard. A new House seat is also up for grabs in central Colorado.
Hispanic voters also will be key in Texas, where Hispanics now comprise a third of the population. Democrats believe they have a strong candidate in Ron Kirk, who wants to become the first African-American to represent Bush's home state in the Senate. But while Hispanic voters tend to vote Democratic, there are signs that they are not overwhelmingly supportive of African-American candidates, said Sergio Bendixen, a Miami-based pollster.
The Hispanic vote could also make a difference in competitive House races in Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona.
Contributing: New York Times News Service.