Last week, the University of Utah basketball team wrapped up what many believe might be the best recruiting class since coach Rick Majerus came to Utah 13 years ago.
Six-foot-9 Australian Andrew Bogut joined previous signees Timothy Drisdom, Richard Chaney and Bryant Markson, three highly regarded players from Southern California.
However, if history is any indication, don't count on continuing to see them for the next four years. As good as those players look now, odds are at least three of the four won't be here by the time their senior seasons roll around in 2006 or 2007.
During Majerus' 13-year tenure as Ute coach, an average of three players per year have left the Ute program. Just last month, four players from the 2001-2002 team announced they will not return. Of all the freshmen recruits who have come to Utah under Majerus, only 13, an average of one per season, have made it to their senior season.
It's not like the Utes are that different from other programs around the country. According to one report, 50 percent of basketball players in the Big Ten during the 1990s didn't make it through their senior seasons at the same school.
At BYU and Utah State, a similar percentage have left during the past five seasons. Nine scholarship players have left USU, while 14 have left BYU since the 1997-98 season. Several of the players who left those programs, however, were recruited by the coaches before USU's Stew Morrill and BYU's Steve Cleveland.
Utah has lost 13 players over the same period, but if you look at the numbers going back to 1989, they are quite startling.
Of the 69 players recruited by Majerus since 1989, only 24, or just over a third, have completed their college careers at Utah. If you count just freshmen, the numbers drop to 13 who have made it from their freshmen to their senior seasons. The other 11 were junior college or four-year transfers. Of the other 45, 37 have left the program before their senior seasons for a variety of reasons. While not defending the numbers, Utah athletic director Chris Hill says the issue of transfers is complex.
"The problem is not as simple as people think," said Hill. "With just 13 scholarships in men's basketball, it's really difficult, more than people understand. Men's basketball probably has the biggest turnover of any sport in the NCAA at any school."
The Utah athletic program likes to pride itself on being better than most other athletic programs (indeed, it was recently named one of the Top 20 athletic programs in the nation in a study by U.S. News & World Report), so the everybody-else-does-it argument doesn't fly when it comes to excessive transfers. Hill certainly doesn't take lightly the idea of excessive transfers in his athletic program.
"Anytime we have anybody transfer, we want to look at it and see why," he said. "Turnover is a difficult thing, and you have to take pause and see how these things happen. Some might be for good reasons, and some maybe are not for good reasons by both sides (coach and player). Ideally you'd like to have nobody transfer."
To stem the tide of turnover in basketball programs like Utah's, the NCAA implemented the "5-9 rule" last year that says teams can't bring in more than five recruits in a year and no more than nine over a two-year period. The original rule actually said eight over a two-year period but was switched to nine for two years to help schools make the transition to the new restrictions on recruits.
The reasons players leave Utah, or any program for that matter, are myriad. Sometimes players want more playing time and see the writing on the wall that they won't be getting much in the coming years. Some players are gently shoved out the door with a similar pitch by the coach — "You can stay, but you won't be playing much." Some leave because of injuries.
Still others have been flat out told their scholarships won't be renewed for anything from a lack of academic progress to lack of ability on the hardwood. Most of the players who have left Utah have refrained from making negative public statements about the program, even though several have left with a bad taste in their mouth.
According to Majerus, the majority of the transfers come down to a joint decision between himself and the player.
"Most times you're doing the kid a favor," he said.
Of Eric Osmundson, who informed the coach he was leaving three weeks ago after just one year, Majerus said, "I'm not sure Osmundson isn't better off leaving." Osmundson's departure, along with the losses of Lance Allred, Cameron Goettsche and Chris Huber earlier in April, put the Utes under the scholarship limit of 13 for next year because they are not allowed to recruit more players due to the 5-9 rule. Many other schools around the country will find themselves in a similar bind next year with fewer than 13 scholarship players.
Majerus is sensitive to criticism about "a revolving door." He says there are good reasons for each departure and also points out that it isn't like the Utes are losing great players to other programs.
"No player has left Utah and done very well, except for one," said Majerus.
That would be Trent Whiting, who played three-quarters of a season at BYU and averaged 14.2 points after leaving Utah midway through the 1999-2000 season. Whiting suffered a condition in his legs that he said was exacerbated by Majerus' rigorous practices.
Majerus preferred not to talk about the circumstances surrounding Whiting's departure, but he was clearly not happy about Whiting leaving midway through his first season and ending up at BYU.
Another player who did pretty well after leaving Utah was Jordie McTavish, who left under bitter circumstances following the Utes' Final Four season. McTavish sat out one year as a redshirt and a year with an injury before playing just one season for Idaho State and averaging 15.8 ppg. But Majerus doesn't concede McTavish was successful since he didn't lead his team to a winning record.
A few other ex-Utes have gone on to start for other teams, including Thomas Wyatt at New Mexico State and Jimmy Carroll at Nevada. But most have either ridden the bench for their new teams or not played at all.
So if all the players who have left Utah weren't that good to begin with, that prompts the question: What was wrong with Majerus' recruiting in the first place?
Majerus acknowledges he has made some errors in recruiting but shrugs it off, saying, "Everybody makes some mistakes sometimes."
In 1997 when Majerus was questioned whether his interest in other jobs was hurting his recruiting, he replied by calling Tyson Johnston the "best big man west of the Mississippi" and Brad Crockett "the best player in the state of Utah."
However, both players lasted just one year. Johnston transferred to Arizona State, where he has played little the past two years, while Crockett wasn't offered a scholarship when he returned from his LDS mission and is now trying to make it on the Utah football team. Others in that recruiting class included Ben Huesser, who lasted just one year; Gary Colbert, who was jettisoned after two years for academic reasons; Shane Willis, who never played due to an injury; and Huber, who worked out with the Utes last season after his mission before transferring to Dixie College.
Majerus also admits he has made some mistakes in letting certain players go.
"Puzey was a mistake," he said of letting forward Mike Puzey go before this past season. "I wish I would have had him back this year. It was one of the those things where I was caught up in all that stuff with my Mom being sick and everything."
To show that he doesn't let players go indiscriminately, Majerus pointed out that his favorite player at Utah was Alex Jensen and he thinks the world of the Jensen family. But after bringing in Alex's older brother, Andy, for a year in 1995-96 while Alex was on his mission, he let Andy go the next year.
"I loved Andy Jensen," said Majerus. "But obviously he wasn't good enough for us. It was better for Andy to play for Weber State."
Because it's difficult to get blue-chip athletes to Utah, Majerus has often taken chances on players who aren't recruited heavily by other schools. Michael Doleac is a perfect example of a player Majerus "discovered," and to a lesser extent, so were Andre Miller and Keith Van Horn, who were lightly recruited out of California but have turned out to be successful NBA players after starring for Majerus.
But for every Michael Doleac, there are a bunch of Will Carltons and Jon Godfreads who haven't worked out.
Some critics say Majerus just doesn't have the patience to let his young players develop and figures there's always someone better out there.
Majerus says some players just aren't cut out for his brand of coaching and that isn't known until the players show up.
"This is not a program for a kid who doesn't love to play ball," said Majerus.
Even with a heralded class coming in next year, Majerus is not exactly doing cartwheels. After once calling McTavish, "a poor man's John Stockton," he's learned his lesson about hyping up a recruit.
"I never get too excited about recruits," he said. "You don't know how good a kid is until you get him."
Majerus and Ute basketball fans are hoping this year's class of recruits turns out to be one of the best ever. The question is, how many will still be around four years down the road?
E-mail: sor@desnews.com