Sen. John Kerry faces substantial obstacles in his bid to unseat President Bush, with voters saying he has not laid out a case for why he wants to be president and expressing strong concern about his ability to manage an international crisis, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
Less than seven weeks before Election Day, Americans continue to think that the nation is heading in the wrong direction and are distressed about how Bush has handled the economy. Yet the president, apparently lifted as much by what Kerry has done wrong as by what Bush has done right in the campaign, has an eight-point lead among registered voters over Kerry, the poll found.
In one particularly troublesome sign for Kerry, a majority of voters said he is spending too much time attacking Bush and talking about the past rather than explaining what he would do as president. By contrast, half of the registered voters said Bush had offered a clear vision of what he wants to do in a second term.
That finding, combined with a rising unfavorable view of Kerry, underlines the complicated challenge the senator confronts as he tries to attack Bush without alienating voters put off by negative campaigning. Kerry's problems have apparently been deepened by the relentless attacks on his Vietnam War record by a group of Vietnam veterans with ties to Bush's campaign. Three-quarters of respondents said they were aware of the advertisements produced by the group, many of which involved charges that were unsupported by official records; of those, 33 percent called the charges mostly true.
More than 60 percent of respondents said Kerry was either "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in discussing his service in Vietnam. At the same time, 71 percent said that Bush was "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in talking about his Vietnam era service in the National Guard, which has been the subject of news accounts raising questions about how he got a coveted out-of-combat guard assignment and whether he fulfilled the required service.
Sixty percent of respondents said they did not have confidence in Kerry to deal wisely with an international crisis; that is a jump from 52 percent in June. By contrast, 48 percent said they were uneasy with Bush's ability to manage a foreign crisis. For all that, there are signs that the election remains competitive, and that the upcoming debates could prove pivotal to Kerry's hopes. Respondents said they were unhappy with Bush's handling of the economy and of Iraq and said his policies had increased the cost of prescription drugs and decreased the number of jobs.
About 80 percent of respondents said that Bush was either "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in talking about the war.
This poll and a series of others in recent days with differing findings have suggested that the electorate is in flux. Alternatively, the different results may reflect how difficult it is to poll in a closely divided electorate where because of cell phones, answering machines and caller identification devices people are harder to reach on the telephone.
Still, the Times/CBS poll suggested that Kerry faces a challenging six weeks. The percentage of Americans that said Kerry had exhibited strong leadership qualities dropped 8 points since the summer to 50 percent; by contrast, 63 percent say Bush has exhibited strong qualities of leadership.
And on the issue that Kerry had once hoped to ride to the White House — the economy — he is not faring much better than Bush. A slight majority, 51 percent, said they were uneasy with Kerry's ability to make the right decisions about the economy, compared with 56 percent who feel the same way about Bush.
Overall, the Times/CBS Lews Poll found that Bush had the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 42 percent for Kerry. Among those who say they are likely to vote, Bush leads 51 percent to 42 percent. When Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, is included, Bush leads by 50 percent to 41 percent, with Nader drawing 3 percent of the vote among registered voters.
Half of all registered voters said they had a lot of confidence in Bush's ability to protect the nation from another terrorist attack, while 26 percent said they had some confidence. By contrast, 26 percent had a lot of confIdence in Kerry's ability to protect the nation from another terrorist attack; and 37 percent said they had some confidence.
More problematic, Kerry has lost ground among women voters, a decline that campaign aides attributed to Bush's ability to undercut Kerry on terrorism at his convention. In July, women supported Kerry by a margin of 52-40; in this latest poll, they supported Bush by a margin of 48-43 percent.
Contributing: Fred Backus.