Were it not for a quirk of timing, Peter Corroon might easily have remained a relatively unknown Democrat rather than the party's torchbearer — and now potential winner — against GOP incumbent Salt Lake Mayor Nancy Workman.
When Corroon stepped up to challenge Workman early this year, no one had heard of health department ghost employees working at the Boys and Girls Club or "guzzle-gate" or any of that. Workman was enjoying the benefits of incumbency, including relatively high poll numbers, and several high-profile Democrats — Bill Orton, for example — opted out of the race.
That left Corroon to take her on, a man whose limited political experience consisted of the chairmanship of the Greater Avenues Community Council and running unsuccessfully for Salt Lake City Council.
"No one else wanted it," Corroon said. "Frankly, I was waiting for somebody to step up. If there had been a stronger candidate (in terms of name ID) I wouldn't have run."
Several political observers agree that if the controversies that have dogged Workman the past several months had happened late last year, another, higher-profile Democrat would have smelled the blood and jumped into the race.
"That's probably right," said Ted Wilson, a former Salt Lake mayor and Democratic political consultant.
Republican political consultant LaVarr Webb, a columnist for the Deseret Morning News, compares the situation to George Bush (senior) riding high in the polls after Desert Storm.
"Nobody wanted to take him on until this unknown from Arkansas said he would do it," he said. Then, after Bush's numbers fell off, "a lot of people were wishing they had gotten in."
County Councilman Jim Bradley, a well-known Utah political commodity, had considered entering the mayoral race but opted out because of the time required to campaign. He said an earlier occurrence of the scandals would definitely have influenced his thinking.
"I don't know," he said when asked if he would have entered the race under those circumstances. "Good question."
The controversies, and especially the conclusion of an independent panel Wednesday that Workman's hiring practices constitute felonious criminal conduct, have made the mayor politically vulnerable to the point that several political observers give her little or no chance to win re-election.
Last March Workman led all challengers by at least 23 percentage points in a Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll. A poll conducted in May, just before the controversies erupted, showed Workman still leading the race at 40 percent, with Corroon at 29 percent and independent candidate Merrill Cook at 11 percent. Two months later, with the numbers of Corroon (27 percent) and Cook (12 percent) almost unchanged, Workman slid to 31 percent and a statistical dead heat with Corroon.
In a Deseret Morning News poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates Wednesday, the day the panel's findings were released, Corroon led Workman by a wide margin, 36 to 23 percent, with Cook at 10 percent.
"I'll be honest with you. We didn't believe she would be this vulnerable," Democratic County Councilman Joe Hatch said.
Timing might not be everything in politics, but it certainly counts for a lot. The Democrats could have nominated just about anybody as their candidate and he or she would have benefited from Workman's troubles. Having Corroon, a person with political experience and connections, albeit moderate, is a bonus. That benefit also applies to independent Cook.
"It's a pole vault for us," he said.
County party chairwoman Nichole Adams, who first approached Corroon about running, has always fiercely defended her choice, even when Workman was strongest. Adams says Corroon was the one who showed courage in taking on what at the time seemed to be a contest unlikely to finish in his favor.
E-mail: aedwards@desnews.com