GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip — The boys from Hamas were busy ripping down the Palestinian election placards to put up a message of their own, under the snapping green flags of Islam.
But their message was not about Sunday's presidential poll; it was a commemoration of a Hamas hero, Yehya Ayyash, a master bombmaker known as the Engineer who was killed by Israel nine years ago this week with a booby-trapped cell phone.
Hamas, which seeks Israel's destruction, is urging its supporters to boycott the election, which is to replace Yasser Arafat. Yet the poll is nearly as big a test for Hamas as for those actually running. For several years, its popularity was on the rise. But now, after four years of violence and the death of Arafat, Hamas is struggling against a shift in political sentiment toward the mainstream and a new possibility for improved relations with Israel.
Opinion polls show a clear movement away from Hamas. Political analysts say the group is in a state of confusion.
Mahmoud Abbas, who succeeded Arafat as leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization and who is the candidate of Fatah, the largest Palestinian faction, is widely expected to win in a field of seven. The only real challenger to Abbas, who is 69 and is known as Abu Mazen, is Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, who runs a health care agency in the West Bank.
But Abbas' margin of victory, and the turnout, will be examined carefully to gauge the balance of power between Fatah and Hamas.
Hamas did take part last month in some local elections on the West Bank, where it did reasonably well in areas where Fatah was strong. Hamas is also concentrating on legislative elections, the first since 1996 and also integral to the Palestinian Authority, which may come as early as May.
The contradictions in Hamas' position do not stop there, said Taher al-Nounou, the Gazan correspondent for Al-Khaleej, a newspaper in the United Arab Emirates. "Hamas is obligated to get into the political process," he said. "It has no other option, and its thinking is developing. It wants a share of power, and not to be a pure opposition."