International politics and diplomacy are most vulnerable to miscalculations when they are controlled by intellectually weak practitioners. A case in point is the uncertain political future of Kosovo, currently an autonomous region of Serbia.
Soon after Tito's death in 1980, the artificial Yugoslav federation began its bloody disintegration. Kosovo's autonomy was revoked in 1989. The ensuing ethnic cleansing of the Albanian population by the Serbian army resulted in an avalanche of United Nations Security Council resolutions that were largely ignored by the Serbian leadership. Finally, as a result of NATO's bombing of Serbia's military and civilian infrastructure, Serbian troops pulled out of Kosovo. On the same day, June 10, 1999, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1244, granting itself sweeping authority over Kosovo's future. To determine its future status, a special envoy of the secretary general was appointed in November 2005. Martti Ahtisaari's report was made public on March 26, 2007. Based on the report's recommendations, members of the European Union and the United States unveiled a draft resolution on June 20, 2007, that, if adapted, would clear the way for Kosovo's full independence from Serbia within a relatively short period of time.
Ahtisaari, the European Union and the United States are wrong. If this recommendation is implemented, western democracies will be putting political convenience above their long-term strategic interests, a minority's understandable desire to be protected above the fundamental issue of regional stability and the future geopolitical cohesion of the European Union and NATO in the continent and beyond.
What is to be done? Most importantly, Kosovo should not be granted independence. An independent Kosovo would have two political choices: Either it could join Albania or remain a second Albanian state. Neither is workable for the future well-being of the Albanians. Albania itself is hopelessly poor and politically hostage to an unsavory elite consisting of former hard-core communists and newly rich gangsters. Realistically, there is nothing the United States or the European Union could do in the coming years to lift the county out of its abject misery. Kosovo is even more destitute.
The confluence of political isolation and economic hopelessness would only exacerbate sentiments of hatred and despair, especially among young people. Hatred of the United States and Western civilization in general would spill over to hatred of society and state. Kosovars, in this condition, would become easy prey to terrorists and their culture of death. Such people lack the capacity to save themselves, let alone build a democratic and prosperous state.
Positioned between the rock of the West with limited assistance capabilities and the hard place of their utter poverty, Kosovars would likely turn to extremism. Extremism, in turn, would pave the way to Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and al-Qaida to establish a deadly arc of terror network and a beachhead at the vulnerable southern flank of NATO. Such a development would decisively transform the balance of powers in the Balkans and beyond. In addition, it could be predicted that these anti-Western forces would receive tacit support from Russia, China and many other lesser dictatorships. Finally, the independence of Kosovo would be perceived in Belgrade as a mortal challenge to Serbia's sovereignty and, indeed, its vitality as a state in central Europe. A revanchist, hate-filled and unstable Serbia would develop into an enormous problem. The United States and the European Union would be a fertile ground of Russia's anti-Western, imperialistic policies.
Thus, Kosovo must remain an autonomous province of Serbia. Amidst the threat of today's state sponsored global terrorism with its capabilities of creating chaos and disruption on a large scale, the United States and the European Union need physical defense against terror and a complementary new political strategy. The essence of this strategy must be the integration of diverse national, ethnic and religious identities. In the present political context, different identities divide communities. The Kosovo Albanians, therefore, must be integrated into the Europe of the 21st century. Their successful integration is a precondition of making Serbia, Macedonia, Albania and Turkey parts of the European Union. The alternatives are tribalism, hatred and terror. Although there are no instant solutions and results, the West must marshal the faith and the endurance to advance the better natures of these tragically tied together peoples.
Miklos K. Radvanyi is vice president for international policy at the Frontiers of Freedom institute in Fairfax, Va.