SAN DIEGO The Utes and Cougars are in the thick of the skinniest part of the Mountain West Conference today.
This league featured three coaching changes this past year, and all of them have wobbled in different ways and to varying success this fall. Only Wyoming has sparkled to some extent and has avoided joining the bottom feeders.
San Diego State's Brady Hoke is experiencing growing pains with the Aztecs (2-3).
Mike Locksley at New Mexico (0-6) is swimming with concrete boots.
Wyoming's Dave Christensen (4-2) is remarkably doing impressive things from the same saddle that bucked Joe Glenn.
Utah's foe today, UNLV (2-4), is in a different category. In the fifth year of Mike Sanford, the Rebels have found an offense just in time to see their defense follow loose change in a hungry slot machine.
Here's the skinny on these MWC cellar-dwellers (Lobos, Rebels and Aztecs):
UNLV: Can move the ball, but defensively is schematically and talent-wise challenged. Any Utah rusher — be it Terrance Cain, Eddie Wide, Shaky, Shak or Swoop — will easily rush for 125 yards today. All they need to do is put on a spin move at the point of attack and run north or south. In two games, the Rebs have given up 850 yards on the ground, 122 points and 1,384 total yards.
New Mexico: Locksley's new staff is running stuff that's made for future recruits.
Their new system is so different from a year ago that players are like confused canines on a mixed scent. Feeding these guys this O and D is like serving cadavers baked beans. There is no gas.
San Diego State: Defensively, Rocky Long's pass defense ranks higher than Utah's, TCU's and BYU's, and his total defense ranks 33rd in the NCAA compared to BYU's 50th. The issue with the Aztecs is on offense, with trying to fit square pegs into round holes. Everything is new. While the Aztecs zone block, all the steps taught by all new guys are completely foreign — and it shows.
One of the most perplexing things about MWC football is the state of the game at San Diego State and UNLV. Both are resort destinations. Both are situated near major, big-time recruiting wells. Both have twirled the coaching turnstile so fast the bearings melted down.
And they keep losing.
I think here in San Diego, Hoke will start something good going. His learning curve is off the bottom. He'll win. It may not be today against the Cougars, even after his troops have rested, healed and schemed and have showed a penchant to pursue, hit and tackle. The best days are ahead for Hoke and Long.
Sanford may be done before Thanksgiving.
Locksley's Lobo salary is going to lawyers.
This week's predictions:
AIR FORCE 21, WYOMING 20: This is the best MWC game of the week. If Christensen can pull off the upset, the Cowboys will likely make a bowl game and this will ring loud in the high plains. But look for the Falcons' defense to make big plays en route to a close win.
TCU 28, COLORADO STATE 10: The Frogs tune up for the Cougars with an easy win over the struggling Rams in Fort Worth. The key for TCU is to avoid injuries and get on track, with their single-biggest goal of defeating the Cougars twice in a row.
UTAH 42, UNLV 14: This score will be whatever Kyle Whittingham wants it to be. Since Whit and Sanford used to share the same office, he might let up a little after the blowout is registered. Or not.
BYU 34, SAN DIEGO STATE 10: I think the Aztecs will slow down Max Hall and Company for awhile, then tire on defense after their offense fails to consistently move the ball and get first downs. The Cougars must win without serious injuries to keep the agenda.
Last week: 4-0. Overall: 36-8 (.818).
e-mail: dharmon@desnews.com