SALT LAKE CITY — Sports, like people and society, are ever-evolving.
At one point, not too long ago, dribbling wasn’t even a part of basketball. 125 years after the first official rules of basketball were published, the game has developed into something entirely different — a race between mathematicians on a quest to discover how it should actually be played.
The use of advanced statistics (data that can be specifically narrowed down to virtually any shot and player-tracking devices) has altered the way basketball is being played at the professional level. The Utah Jazz, especially over the past several seasons, have delved deep into analytics, distancing themselves further from the style of basketball the legendary Jazz teams played.
Kevin Pelton, an ESPN writer and former consultant to the Indiana Pacers, authored the Great Analytics Ranking, a piece detailing all 30 NBA teams’ involvement and commitment to the usage of advanced statistics.
When the article was published in 2015, Pelton considered the Jazz to be one of the nine teams with “one foot in” — meaning they showed some commitment to advanced stats, but less than the “believers” and other teams that were “all-in.”
Although exact criteria didn’t apply to the ranking, Pelton spoke to people within the NBA about their perceptions of other teams, evaluated decisions made on the court (such as shot selection) and assessed how individual front offices dealt with principles pertinent to advanced stats. Once that was done, Pelton gauged every teams’ sense of investment.
The Jazz, like many others since 2015, have become more analytically-driven, basing their decisions not only on what the executives see on the floor but also on numbers that measure the results. Utah has hired front office personnel who come from organizations that are also data-driven. The team’s created contractual incentives for their players based on advanced stats. If Rudy Gobert’s defensive rating, for instance, is lower than 100, he will get an extra $250,000.
But more than anything else, a team’s commitment to advanced stats can be gauged by the stats themselves.
Since Quin Snyder replaced Ty Corbin as head coach in 2014, the Jazz’s play on the floor has indicated a shift towards a game played with math in mind.
“If you look at the way the front office is trying to build the roster – from the pace of play the Jazz have and their emphasis on depth, I think those things are probably informed both by a philosophy of wanting to do that and by research supporting that,” Pelton said.
Having coached under Mike Budenholzer during his stint with the Atlanta Hawks — a San Antonio Spurs and Gregg Popovich disciple — Snyder has incorporated the new-age way of playing basketball in a relatively short period of time.
Three-point shooting and the balance between a team’s effectiveness on both sides of the floor is probably the most base-level way of seeing how much a team is playing to the standards of advanced analytics.
“If a coach takes over and a team immediately starts shooting fewer long twos and more threes, that’s consistent with what analytics tells us makes for an efficient offense,” Pelton said. “Some coaches will even tell everyone that they want their players shooting more threes because it’s a better shot than a long two. It’s trickier from a front office standpoint because they only have a handful of major decisions each year. Even someone who’s completely committed to making decisions on the basis of statistical analysis, you’re still going to incorporate doubt. Not every move will necessarily line up.”
Since Snyder became head coach of the Jazz, the team has improved its offensive rating, defensive rating, 3-point frequency and have reduced its reliance on long two-point shots, which are widely considered the worst shots in basketball by stat-heads. And that’s been the case every single season since Snyder has been on Utah’s bench.
Offensive rating: Points scored per 100 possessions.
Defensive rating: Points allowed per 100 possessions.
3-point frequency: Number of possessions that result in threes attempted
Long two: Shot that is outside of the “paint” that isn’t a three (data collected measured shots 15-19 feet)
Looking at the stats alone, it’s clear the Jazz are making on-court decisions based on what the math insists can improve their chances of winning.
The team is no longer taking what the defense gives them — open, long two-point shots that usually aren’t rewarded — but rather forcing defenses to, well, defend. Gordon Hayward’s ascension to stardom and George Hill’s career-best season were the primary reasons for Utah’s offensive success last season.
Now that both are gone, the Jazz have to creatively make up for the losses.
“The obvious weakness is shot creation,” Pelton said. “You lose a lot of shot creation with Hayward and a fair amount with Hill. The guys they went out and added this summer — Ricky Rubio is great at creating shots for others, but not so much himself. (Donovan) Mitchell might in time become a creator, but that’s a lot to ask of a rookie. It’ll be up to a lot of internal development and guys stepping into larger roles, Rodney Hood in particular.”
Offensively, the Jazz will inevitably suffer. Relying on a rookie isn’t ideal and the Jazz failed to sign adequate placeholder replacements. The balance between offensive and defensive production — the Jazz were in the top half of the league in both last season — could be tipped because of the off-season shakeups.
Defensively, the Jazz might have improved, even after being a top-10 team the past two seasons.
A gritty, yet detail-oriented defensive team, the Jazz haven’t created many turnovers since Snyder took over, and that could be attributed to the roster. Utah was essentially last in steals per game in 2016-17. That could change with the additions the team made this offseason with Rubio, Mitchell and Thabo Sefolosha – all of whom have had success in that area or are projected to be among the league’s leaders in steals.
“Rubio got knocked for his defensive ability early in his career,” Pelton said. “It seems like he’s getting beat a lot off the dribble, which is the nature of the point guard position at this point. That skill tends to be overrated. But often underrated is having size at that position that allows you to get beat and still be able to contest a shot or play the passing lanes. That’s the strength of Rubio.”
In the past, the Jazz could’ve gotten away with being strictly elite defensively by suffocating teams and grinding out low-scoring victories. The rest of the league, partially in an effort to keep up with the Golden State Warriors, has become fixated on putting out a high-powered, fast-paced offense. Right now, the Jazz don’t have enough talent to keep up with the likes of Golden State, Houston, Oklahoma City, Minnesota or San Antonio. The mid-tier teams — Denver, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans, Portland and Memphis — are also expected to have more offensive options than the Jazz.
So, will defense be enough to make the playoffs in an improved Western Conference? Or will the Jazz surprise pundits, especially those that are focused on analytics, by surpassing expectations offensively? Those questions will be answered in the coming weeks — and could be the difference between making the playoffs or being in the lottery.
“I think they’re borderline,” Pelton said about the Jazz making the playoffs. “I think there’s a number of teams in the Western Conference with hopes of making the playoffs and maybe with even an expectation to make the playoffs, but there’s going to be more than eight of those teams. They can’t all make it. It’ll come down to a handful of teams for the last few spots. It seems possible to me, that given the shift of talent from the East to the West, that it could again be a couple of teams that finish .500 or better and miss the playoffs. The Jazz could have a good season and not make the playoffs because it’ll just be that difficult in the West.”