Jazz fans may have been concerned when a stat popped up on the TNT broadcast as No. 1 Utah lost Game 1 at home to the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies to open up the 2021 NBA playoffs.
Teams that win the first game of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 76.2% of the time, the broadcast told viewers multiple times throughout the game.
That stat could be worrisome when taken at face value, but the history of No. 1 seeds losing Game 1 against the No. 8 seed is much more favorable for the Jazz, based in Salt Lake City.
Since the NBA expanded to 16 teams in the playoffs in 1984, the No. 8 seed has won the opening game against the No. 1 seed 15 of 76 times (19.7%), including Sunday’s Grizzlies win against the Jazz. Of the 14 times it has happened prior to Utah’s loss, the No. 8 seed has gone on to win the series three times (21.4%). Only five No. 8 seeds have in NBA history have upset a No. 1 seed in 74 total series (6.8%).
Losing to a No. 8 seed in the first game isn’t really an indicator of future performance.
Two No. 1 seeds that lost Game 1 went on to win the NBA Finals, an additional four reached the NBA Finals and three made the conference finals. Only two No. 1 seeds that lost the first game to a No. 8 seed and won the series were bounced before the conference finals.
Here is the history of every time a No. 8 seed has stolen the first game from a No. 1 seed, and how the series finished.
1993
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers 107, No. 1 Phoenix Suns 103 (Suns win series 3-2)
Sedale Threatt scored 33 points and Byron Scott added 22 as the Lakers became the first No. 8 seed to win the opening game against a No. 1 seed. The Lakers would also win Game 2, but Barkley and the Suns would take the next three to win the series 3-2. Phoenix eventually lost in the NBA Finals to the Chicago Bulls.
1994
No. 8 Miami Heat 93, No. 1 Atlanta Hawks 88 (Hawks win series 3-2)
Steve Smith scored 22 points as Miami upset Atlanta. The series went back and forth, down to a deciding Game 5 that Kevin Willis and Atlanta won to take the series 3-2. Atlanta lost in the second round to Indiana.
1998
No. 8 Houston Rockets 103, No. 1 Utah Jazz 90 (Jazz win series 3-2)
The Jazz have been in this position before. Clyde Drexler scored 22 to give Houston a Game 1 win. The teams traded wins before Utah won the deciding Game 5 84-70. John Stockton, Karl Malone and Utah would go on to win the Western Conference, losing in the NBA Finals to the Chicago Bulls.
1999
No. 8 New York Knicks 95, No. 1 Miami Heat 75 (Knicks win series 3-2)
Patrick Ewing and the Knicks won Game 1 of the series, though Miami fought back to make it a 2-2 tie, New York won Game 5 78-77, thanks to an Allan Houston jumper with a second left. The Knicks advanced to the NBA Finals as the 8 seed, eventually losing to the San Antonio Spurs.
2001
No. 8 Indiana Pacers 79, No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers 78 (76ers win series 3-1)
Reggie Miller hit the game-winning 3-pointer with seconds left as the Pacers took a 1-0 lead over Philadelphia. Allen Iverson and the 76ers would win the next three and the series, eventually reaching the NBA Finals and losing to the Los Angeles Lakers.
2002
No. 8 Indiana Pacers 89. No. 1 New Jersey Nets 83 (Nets win series 3-2)
The Pacers upset the No. 1 seed in the first game for the second year in the row. Jermaine O’Neal scored 30 to lead Indiana. The Nets won the next two games, but the Pacers blew New Jersey out in Game 4 to set up the winner-take-all Game 5. Jason Kidd scored 31 to help the Nets advance. New Jersey made the NBA Finals, losing to the Lakers.
2003
No. 8 Phoenix Suns 96, No. 1 San Antonio Spurs 95 (OT) (Spurs win series 4-2)
This was the first time that NBA first-round series were best-of-seven. Stephon Marbury made the buzzer-beating 3-pointer in overtime for the Suns in Game 1. The Spurs won the next two games before the Suns tied the series at two. San Antonio won the final two games to close out the series. The Tim Duncan-led Spurs would win the NBA Finals over the New Jersey Nets.
No. 8 Orlando Magic 99, No. 1 Detroit Pistons 94 (Pistons win series 4-3)
Tracy McGrady poured in 43 points to lead the Magic to a Game 1 upset. The series would go the distance, Orlando held a 3-1 series lead after Game 4, but Detroit won three straight, including the clinching Game 7 — 108-93. Chauncey Billups and the Pistons lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Nets.
2007
No. 8 Golden State Warriors 97, No. 1 Dallas Mavericks 85 (Warriors win series 4-2)
The “We Believe” Warriors were the first No. 8 seed to upset the No. 1 seed since the NBA went to a best-of-seven format for the first round. Baron Davis scored 33 points in the first game. Golden State beat Dallas 4-2 and advanced to the second round, where Deron Williams and Utah Jazz beat them 4-1.
2011
No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies 101, No. 1 San Antonio Spurs 98 (Grizzlies win series 4-2)
The Grit-And-Grind Grizzlies make an appearance on the list. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 49 points in the Game 1 win. Memphis took three of the first four games in the series and closed it out with a 99-91 Game 6 victory against Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Mike Conley and Memphis fell in the second round to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 4-3.
2014
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks 101, No. 1 Indiana Pacers 93 (Pacers win series 4-3)
Jeff Teague scored 28 points and Paul Millsap added 25 in Atlanta’s Game 1 win. The Hawks pushed Paul George and the Pacers to Game 7, but George’s 30-point game was too much. Indiana made the Eastern Conference finals, but lost to the Miami Heat.
2017
No. 8 Chicago Bulls 106, No. 1 Boston Celtics 102 (Celtics win series 4-2)
Jimmy Butler scored 30 points as Chicago knocked Boston off in Game 1. The Bulls would also win Game 2 before Isaiah Thomas and the Celtics reeled off four consecutive wins to take the series. Boston advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, losing to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
2020
No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers 100, No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers 93 (Lakers win series 4-1)
It was Dame Time in the bubble when Portland shocked LeBron and the Lakers with a 34-point performance. The Lakers regrouped, winning the next four to dispatch the Blazers. Los Angeles would be the 2020 NBA champions, beating the Miami Heat 4-2 in the NBA Finals.
No. 8 Orlando Magic 122, No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks 110 (Bucks win series 4-1)
Both No. 8 seeds won the opening game against the No. 1 seed in 2020 — Nikola Vučević scored 35 for Orlando in Game 1 — but like the Trail Blazers, the Magic suffered a gentlemen’s sweep. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks lost 4-1 in the second round of the playoffs to the Miami Heat.