If you follow the political money flowing around the country right now, it might give you some insight into what will happen on Election Day.
Democrats have outspent Republicans this year — a gap that has grown over the last few weeks of the campaign season — but they’re also having to defend seats in places like New York and California that used to be considered safe. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats are in an almost dead heat for control of the Senate, leading to big spending in the five states where the races are the closest.
Spending in the 2022 midterm elections is on track to be more than double what was spent during the 2018 midterms. Super PACs associated closely with party leaders and the parties’ national campaign committees are some of the biggest spenders this year.
Here’s where they are putting their money in the final stretch:
U.S. House
According to AdImpact, Democrats and their allies are outspending Republicans on advertisements this election cycle.
The bad news for Democrats is that they are having to spend big to defend incumbents in House districts that voted for President Joe Biden two years ago, some by as much as 20 points. Republicans are taking advantage of Biden’s low approval ratings and are moving money to support candidates in traditionally blue districts from New York to California.
Democratic candidates’ lack of competitiveness in red districts has freed up Republican money to go after vulnerable Democrats in surprising places.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is deploying hundreds of thousands of dollars to Southern California to help Rep. Julia Brownley. Her internal polls show her race will come down to the wire, sources told NBC News. In traditionally blue Connecticut, Rep. Jahana Hayes is also struggling in a district she won convincingly in the last two elections.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also had to send last-minute money to help its chairman, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, in his district just north of New York City that Biden won by more than ten points in 2020. Last week, the Cook Political Report changed the rating on Maloney’s race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.”
In addition, Biden asked the Democratic National Committee last week to transfer more than $18 million to its House and Senate campaign arms in an effort to shore up support for Democratic incumbents, according to CNN.
Democrats are also relying on super PACs to support their endangered candidates. On Tuesday, according to AdImpact, House Majority PAC, a super PAC associated with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, started funding ads in some districts Biden won easily in 2020.
“Things are not great. Everyone knows that,” a House Democrat told NBC anonymously. “I think some of these races are tight and so they’re spending. I mean, a lot of these guys in these districts haven’t spent any money. So if you could shore it up, then why not.”
Republican Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, expects the GOP to walk away with significant victories on election night.
“In a matter of weeks, Democrats have gone from crowing they were going to hold the House to spending millions in double-digit Biden seats,” he said in a statement. “Republicans have the candidates, message and momentum to make history on Election Day.”
U.S. Senate
The Democrats’ strong summer lead in the race to control the Senate has all but evaporated. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight now gives the GOP a 54 in 100 chance to retake the upper chamber, down from a 68 in 100 Democratic favorability forecasted in September.
Silver and his team say the race for control of the Senate is a “dead heat” and the Democrats are spending big in toss up states, showing they have plenty of fight left in them. The Cook Political Report rates five senate races as “toss ups”: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Senate Leadership Fund, associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has spent $234 million in ads so far this cycle, becoming the highest-spending advertiser ever tracked by AdImpact. The fund’s top five states for ad expenditures are Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada — indicating where McConnell likely believes the GOP’s best path to a Senate majority lies.
Brendan Galvin from OpenSecrets told PBS that McConnell’s PAC appears to be “outspending their Democratic counterparts.”
Comparatively, the Senate Majority PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, is the third highest spending advertiser tracked by AdImpact, after spending $163 million on competitive races. The PAC’s top five states for spending are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina, signaling Schumer’s thoughts on where his party’s incumbents are most vulnerable and where he thinks Democratic candidates can beat the GOP.
Digital ad spending has totaled $1.7 billion in Senate races this cycle, according to AdImpact. Roughy 60% of that has been targeted at the five Senate races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
McConnell’s super PAC is notably absent in Arizona, where they canceled nearly $10 million in ads supporting Republican nominee Blake Masters. McConnell told reporters in August that he was concerned about “candidate quality” problems. The fund also canceled $5 million in ad buys two weeks ago in New Hampshire, where Republican senate nominee Don Bolduc is surging in the polls.
McConnell’s withdrawal of support may stem from Bolduc’s vocal opposition to him leading the Senate should the Republicans win control. He reiterated earlier this month that he’s “not backing off” from his opinion. Masters also suggested a leadership change earlier this year, but in more recent comments, he seemed to be extending an olive branch to McConnell.
In both New Hampshire and Arizona, the Sentinel Action Fund, a super PAC associated with Heritage Action for America, filled the void left by McConnell. After spending millions in last-minute ad buys this week, a spokesman for the fund told Politico, “Bolduc’s campaign is showing tremendous momentum in the Granite State, and it is time for the whole of the conservative movement to come together and support his bid to unseat Sen. (Maggie) Hassan.”
Outside spending in Arizona is also coming from Club for Growth, which has spent millions in the last week of the campaign to support Masters.
A super PAC associated with former President Donald Trump is also buying ads in competitive Senate races. MAGA Inc. has spent more than $16 million this cycle and is beefing up its ad buys in the final weeks of the election, according to AdImpact.
Trump is sitting on a $100 million war chest this year. Earlier this week, Sen. Ted Cruz called him out for not spending more of his money to help Republicans take back the Senate.
“It would be nice if Trump would spend some of that $100 million to help some of these candidates who Mitch is abandoning because they’re pro-Trump,” Cruz said on his podcast. “Those are the two pockets of money that are there, and right now neither of them are spending in a number of these states. They’re not.”