In the weeks leading to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence analysts tried to predict the outcome of the impending war. Their assessment was glum: Kyiv would fall in two days and up to 50,000 civilians could die, sources told The Washington Post. Thankfully, neither of those predictions were right. The war is now into its sixth month, and less than 5,500 civilians have died since late July — a tragic number, but nowhere near the predicted catastrophic toll.
Security analysts now say they underestimated the willpower of the Ukrainian people and the impact of foreign military aid in the war. The U.S. and allies from NATO — a security alliance of western countries — have supplied Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons, intelligence support and training. On Tuesday, Congress approved a $1 billion security package for Ukraine — the largest to date — bringing the total pledged since President Joe Biden took office to nearly $10 billion.
What does $1 billion buy? The Department of Defense released a mind-boggling shopping list that includes thousands of anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, more than half a million explosive rounds for long-range cannons such as Howitzers, 20 Mi-17 military helicopters, scores of tactical vehicles and nearly 60 million small-arms munitions, to name a few. Ukraine will also receive surface-to-air missile systems, laser-guided rocket systems and hundreds of Switchblade drones, sometimes called kamikaze drones because they crash into their targets.
The weapons have helped level the battlefield. For example, early in the invasion, Javelins, portable anti-tank missile systems, helped Ukraine stop heavy armored columns — lines of tanks that constitute the vanguard of the Russian army. With longer-range systems, such as vehicle-mounted HIMARS, Ukraine can hit targets from a distance of 70km (roughly 43mi). This allows Ukraine to intercept supply lines and facilities from relative safety.
Since early in the war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked NATO to institute a no-fly zone to bar Russian aircraft from Ukrainian airspace. Fearing that doing so could pull NATO members into armed conflict with Russia, the alliance has refused this request, per the Wall Street Journal. But surface-to-air missiles, such as Stingers and NASAMS, allow Ukraine to impose make-shift no-fly zones around operations bases and key positions.
The latest package even includes 700 drones that are being fielded for the first time. These are the Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, and operate similarly to the Switchblades.
How effective have these weapons been? Colin Kahl, the chief advisor to the secretary of defense, recently estimated that Russia has suffered up to 80,000 casualties, which includes both dead and wounded. Estimates for deaths alone range from 15,000 by the CIA to nearly 43,000 according to the Ukrainian government, per Newsweek. Much of it is guesswork, but most analyses conclude the war is taking a heavy toll on Russia (though TASS, a Russian state-owned news company, cites officials saying as of March Russia has sustained less than 1,400 deaths).
The U.S. does not have the best track record when providing military aid. Billions of dollars worth of weapons have been misused elsewhere. In Afghanistan, for example, anti-aircraft missiles ended up in the hands of insurgency groups. But Ukraine has been a success thanks to institutional changes in recent years, according to an analysis from RAND, a think-tank. Previous laws interfered with procurement of military equipment from overseas, but Zelenskyy changed these when he came to office.
Shipping cartloads of military equipment to a conflict abroad comes with risks. It could cause the war to spill beyond Ukraine and raise the possibility of nuclear warfare, according to a report by analysts from The Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. Weapons also can find their way into black markets and end up being used against the U.S. and its allies. Counter-terrorism agents, who are familiar with how missile systems were used against U.S. forces and allies in Afghanistan and Iraq, fret this could happen in Ukraine.
Willpower over firepower?
Defense officers remark that military assistance will only go as far as the will of the Ukrainian people to fight. It’s probably more akin to a reciprocal relationship: seeing a Javelin fly into the sky and dive into an enemy tank lifts the spirits of Ukrainian soldiers, invigorating them to carry on.
Spirits are high at the moment. This week, an airbase in Saki, Crimea, was the target of the most catastrophic attack on Russian forces to date — nine warplanes were destroyed. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, but a government official said the attack was carried out by Ukrainian special forces. If so, Ukraine is shifting from defense to offense. The war “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — its liberation,” Zelenskyy said, per BBC News.
The most likely outcome, however, will be a stalemate. To win, Ukraine has to make the war unaffordable for Putin (estimates vary, but it’s costing him a fortune). Foreign military aid will help to this end, but as the war prolongs, its human toll will continue to rise.