An earlier version of this article was published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here. To submit a question to next week’s Friday Mailbag, email onthetrail@deseretnews.com.
Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.
3 things to know
- Donald Trump marched to victory in New Hampshire, winning the state’s GOP primary by 11 percentage points and declaring the race for the Republican nomination “over.” But Nikki Haley has vowed to keep campaigning through Super Tuesday. The next stop? Her home state, South Carolina, on Feb. 24. Read more here.
- Is 2024 the year of the independent? No Labels thinks so. The nonprofit is pushing to get a third-party ticket on ballots across the country, but not without opposition: No Labels filed a formal complaint with the Department of Justice accusing its critics of “voter suppression.” Read more here.
- Arizona will be a swing state this year, but the state’s Republican Party is in shambles. GOP Chair Jeff DeWit resigned Wednesday after far-right Senate candidate Kari Lake leaked audio of DeWitt pushing her to drop out of the race. It’s the latest chapter in the ongoing battle between old-school mavericks, like the late Sen. John McCain, and the burgeoning America First movement. Read more here.
The Big Idea
The great MAGA sifting
To Donald Trump, there is no greater sin than disloyalty. It’s what makes his following so dynamic and his supporters so steadfast — he demands loyalty, and they reciprocate. It’s what causes former critics, from Ted Cruz to Tim Scott, to throw their support behind him as soon as it became apparent Trump would likely be the party’s nominee.
The primary is not over yet. After decisive victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, Trump has 32 delegates, and Haley has 17. Over 1,200 are needed to win. Trump has massive leads in polling across the country, but Haley has vowed to stick around until Super Tuesday, 40 days from now. She faces an uphill fight, but a fight still.
But a layer below the jockeying for delegates is a more consequential battle: whether the Republican Party fully transforms into the party of Trump, or whether there is space for his detractors and his enemies. After winning New Hampshire on Tuesday, Trump took the stage and berated Haley, calling her an “imposter” for not falling in line and endorsing him. He vowed retribution: “I don’t get too angry,” he said. “I get even.”
That goes for Haley and her followers. On Wednesday, Trump took to social media to warn his followers that Haley is “very bad” for both the GOP and the country. He drew a line on the ground: MAGA to one side, traitors to the other. “Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp,” Trump wrote. “We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!”
Haley quickly used the post as fuel. Within an hour, she’d shared it on social media, writing, “Well in that case … donate here,” with a link to her online fundraising portal. The next morning, her campaign began selling T-shirts that read, “BARRED. PERMANENTLY.” The pro-Haley super PAC told Puck it raised more money Wednesday than any other single day this election cycle, adding to the $1.5 million the Haley campaign raked in since Ron DeSantis dropped out Sunday and another $24 million in 2023’s final quarter.
Meanwhile, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel called on Haley to drop out Wednesday, saying the party must “unite around our eventual nominee” — Trump. McDaniel, who oversees the Republican primary, maintained a neutral stance until Wednesday. And the RNC reviewed a now withdrawn draft resolution that would have declared Trump the presidential nominee before voters approved his nomination.
That leaves Haley and her followers in a conundrum: is it possible to reject Trump and remain in the party’s good graces? Is the 2024 primary a choice between Trump and Haley, or between acceptance and exile?
Haley is not showing signs of retreat. “This is not a coronation,” she said during her election-night speech in New Hampshire. A campaign spokesperson offered a full-throated rebuke of the RNC draft resolution before it was withdrawn: “Who cares what the RNC says?” they wrote. “We’ll let millions of Republican voters across the country decide who should be our party’s nominee, not a bunch of Washington insiders.”
It is a marked deviation for Haley, though. For much of her campaign, she’s been hesitant to critique Trump. She vowed to support him if he is the party’s nominee, even if he is convicted. She refused to condemn his alleged sexual abuse. When she offers criticism of him, it usually deals with his refusal to debate and his economic record.
Now, Haley is charting a different path — not the one-foot-in, one-foot-out posturing she’s shown for much of the primary, but a full-on acceptance that she’s no longer part of the MAGA majority. There must be a realization that trying to win over Trump’s strong base is hopeless, and a hope that there are enough Trump-averse Republicans left. Perhaps the election would look different if she’d taken on this stance before Iowa and New Hampshire.
If Haley makes it to Super Tuesday, it will be because she called Trump’s bluff and it paid off.
Weekend reads
The GOP Hispanic vote hits a snag: The Republican Party rolled out a series of “Hispanic Community Centers” in 2022 to help shore up its support among Latinos. But most of them have closed, raising questions about Republicans’ ability to win the Hispanic vote in 2024. The RNC Shuttered Most of the Hispanic Community Centers It Touted as Critical to Winning Over Latino Voters (Adrian Carrasquillo, The Messenger)
The Never-Trumpers haven’t quit, even after Trump’s wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. They are just retraining their focus on November: “Those of us who oppose Trump may not be able to prevent his renomination, but we should be able to prevent him from winning a general.” ‘Not a good night for Donald Trump’: Why never-Trumpers think he’s really losing (Lisa Kashinsky, Politico)
Biden wasn’t on the ballot, but he still managed to win the New Hampshire primary. Here’s a smart look at the write-in campaign — and the $1.4 million ad campaign — that earned Biden an early (albeit symbolic) victory. How Joe Biden won a write-in campaign after skipping New Hampshire’s primary (Francesca Chambers and Karissa Waddick, USA Today)
One last thing — a reminder to follow our new On the Trail 2024 Instagram account.
Have a question for the next Friday mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com.
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.