One of the most meaningful data points for any faith community is how well it retains those in the faith, whether they were born into it or joined later. With the West’s rapidly changing religious landscape, the last two decades have seen intensified efforts to determine just how many people remain in their faith.
Yet, meaningful variation exists in how retention is measured, which has led to some confusion. For that reason, it’s important to consider multiple data sources with various perspectives to get a full picture, comparing their relative strengths and weaknesses.
This helps us determine which data is most reliable. Unfortunately, relying on less reliable data often leads us to the wrong conclusions.
Cooperative Election Survey
One of the more recent ways researchers have attempted to explore religious retention is the Cooperative Election Survey (CES), a large proportion of which comes from those who signed up to take surveys through YouGov. Other participants are recruited through online advertising. All participants must take the survey online and it is only available in English.
Last month, the newest 2025 CES report was released, with data suggesting that the percentage of the U.S. population that is Latter-day Saint dropped by more than 50% in the last 15 years, from 1.9% of the population in 2010 to 0.9% in 2025. This has prompted some commentary on what it all means for Latter-day Saints in the U.S., with concerns raised about the apparent decline in church membership and increase in de-identification.
While those conducting these analyses are appropriately cautious in their interpretations, I have engaged with some who draw rather dire conclusions based on the data. Yet, to paraphrase the words of Inigo Montoya, when interpreting the data in rather disastrous ways: “I do not think (the data) means what you think it means.”
Changes in the percentage of the U.S. population are not the same thing as retention. Population percentages are a zero-sum game — when one group grows, some others must shrink. If a single Catholic moves to the U.S., the percentage of Americans who are Latter-day Saints automatically shrinks, even if not a single Latter-day Saint left the church.
The changes in religious percentages as reported by the CES reflect multiple factors, including existing members leaving, new members joining, the church “cleaning” it’s records, and overall U.S. growth through birth and immigration.
This means a religion can actually lose its share of the U.S. population even if its numbers are growing.
One thing is clear: Just looking at percentage population changes doesn’t tell you why these changes are occurring. What they do suggest is how the overall makeup of the U.S. religious landscape is changing. But again, by itself, these percentages don’t provide explanations of why changes occur, and it is not possible to directly derive retention from them.
Clearly, it’s quite helpful to understand how Latter-day Saints fit into the overall U.S. religious landscape. But we should still ask how reliable CES data is in getting us that percentage for religious affiliation in the first place. Does it accurately reflect the percentage of religions in the U.S.? Do other data sources match CES numbers?
Two other recent studies can help us verify this.
Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Study
The “gold standard” study of U.S. religions is the Pew Religious Landscape Study. This study, designed specifically to capture religion in the U.S., allows for some of the best estimates of who stays, who leaves and where they go. The two most recent Pew surveys were conducted in 2014 and 2023–24.
To recruit participants, Pew randomly mails invitations to U.S. households drawing these households from a U.S. Postal Service database that covers roughly 90% of U.S. households. That gives nearly every adult an equal chance to participate. Participants can complete the survey online, on paper or by telephone. They can also complete the survey in English or Spanish.
The Public Religion Research Institute’s Census of American Religion
The PRRI Census of American Religion was conducted in 2013 and 2025. In 2025, there were 40,000 respondents which primarily came from Ipsos KnowledgePanel’s recruits. Like the Pew study, individuals are not allowed to self-select into the study; participants are randomly recruited from households through the U.S. Postal Service database. Participants in the PRRI were also allowed to take the survey in either English or Spanish.
Unfortunately, the PRRI does not contain data on actual retention. However, we can use the 2013 and 2025 data to examine the percentage of the U.S. population that is Latter-day Saint and compare that percentage to the Cooperative Election Survey data.
Comparing Pew, the PRRI Census of American Religion and the Cooperative Election data
Compared to the Cooperative Election data, Pew and PRRI use a broader and more comprehensive strategy specifically designed to capture the religious composition in the U.S. Thus, when divergences occur, the Pew and PRRI surveys are likely the stronger measures for examining religion.
With that background we can compare Pew and PRRI’s numbers to the CES numbers. Given the time frames available for each survey, we can examine how the percentage of Latter-day Saints in the U.S. has changed over the last decade. For the percentage of the U.S. that is Latter-day Saint, CES estimates a substantial 45% decrease from 2014 to 2025
By comparison, Pew estimates just an 8% decline from 2014 to 2023–24 with PRRI estimating a 16% decline from 2013 to 2025. Given the margin of error, neither of these declines is statistically significant. These numbers represent quite a contrast with CES estimating a decline three to five times greater than Pew and PRRI.
By comparison, the 8% decline among Latter-day Saints estimated by Pew is one of the lowest among Christian denominations (Baptists, Presbyterians, and Methodists all experienced above a 20% decline).
Since Pew and PRRI have a methodological edge, these numbers are likely the most reliable. While something can still be learned from CES, measuring religious composition is where Pew shines especially. So, it makes sense to lean toward its estimates.
How has retention changed over time?
Aside from the percentage of the U.S. that identifies as Latter-day Saint, what do we find when we use actual measures of retention? Along with most other religions, data finds Latter-day Saints have declined in retention since the 1980s (retention being defined as those raised in a religion who still identify as that religion as an adult).
At the same time, Latter-day Saint retention rates today are higher than most other Christian denominations. And when considering those who are retained and still regularly attend worship services, Latter-day Saints are the highest.
So while some data find retention decreasing over time, which is cause for needed discussion, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is retaining comparatively more than many other religions in the U.S. — particularly considering those who still identify as a Latter-day Saint and regularly attend worship services.
The Church of Jesus Christ is also reporting record numbers of both convert baptisms and participation in the Church Educational System. And although the total number of Latter-day Saints in the U.S. dipped slightly from 2024 to 2025, the overall U.S. trajectory has been positive and congregation numbers grew during this same period.
Some final cautions
While one survey may estimate a substantial decline in the percent of the U.S. that is Latter-day Saint, more methodologically rigorous surveys designed to capture religion in the U.S. point to a smaller decline that is not statistically significant.
Again, this is not an actual measure of retention. When retention is more directly measured, the data find Latter-day Saints holding on to their members more than many other religions and doing well in keeping those members active in the religion.
Yet none of this is to say that “all is well in Zion.” As President Dallin H. Oaks, president of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, recently noted, Latter-day Saints have followed some concerning national trends regarding family life that could well impact the Latter-day Saint landscape of the U.S. and the world. And however high or low the retention rate may be, we should seek out and care for those who disconnect from the church, performing the compassionate work of the Good Shepherd.
In the end, discussions of “big data” are only useful in providing broad brushstrokes about Latter-day Saints and other faiths. These numbers don’t capture the covenant relationships Latter-day Saints have with each other and with God — in other words, they don’t capture the lived substance of believers’ lives. The Church of Jesus Christ isn’t about the percentage of the U.S. population; it’s about a people doing their best to love and worship God. The data does its real work when it is in the service of that much loftier goal.