SALT LAKE CITY — Three weeks from the Iowa caucus, Democrats still have no idea who is the leading candidate for the party’s presidential nomination. But Tuesday’s debate offers the top six candidates a final opportunity before the primaries to argue that they’re the party’s best hope to beat President Donald Trump.
Ultimately, Tuesday’s debate is a contest between the party’s four leading candidates — Sen. Bernie Sanders; Sen. Elizabeth Warren; former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and former Vice President Joe Biden — who have each taken turns leading various polls without inspiring loyalty in Democratic voters.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar and billionaire activist Tom Steyer have secured positions at the literal margins of the stage, to the left and right of the contenders.
Another half-dozen presidential hopefuls will be watching with the rest of the nation, after failing to qualify for the debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. Another who didn’t make the cut, Sen. Cory Booker, ended his campaign Monday.
January has already seen the exit of author Marianne Williamson and Julian Castro, the former secretary of housing and urban development and mayor of San Antonio.
The Democratic National Committee has increasingly raised polling and fundraising thresholds for presidential hopefuls to qualify for the party’s debates since 20 candidates first took the stage over two nights last June.
Candidates vying for a slice of Tuesday’s two-hour spotlight had until Friday to poll at or above 5% in four or more different national or early voting state polls (or 7% in two state polls), to reach at least 225,000 total donors and to have 1,000 or more donors from at least 20 states, according to the Des Moines Register. These thresholds are tighter than December’s qualifications of 4%, 200,000 total donors and 800 donors from 20 states.
As of Monday evening, Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Rep. John Delaney, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, and businessman Andrew Yang, had not secured a podium for Tuesday’s debate but continued to fight for the party’s nomination.
But the main contenders will be — literally — at center stage, vying for voters’ confidence in their electability. So far, there’s no real consensus.
On Friday, the Des Moines Register reported that of 701 likely Democrat Iowa caucus voters, 20% said they preferred Sen. Sanders. Next in the poll was Sen. Warren with 17% — a near-tie within the poll’s 3.7% margin of error — followed by 16% for Buttigieg and 15% for Biden. Each of the four candidates has now led the poll during their campaigns.
Less than half of voters, 40%, said they’ve decided who they will vote for in three weeks, with 45% saying they could be convinced to change their minds, according to the Register.
The debate could showcase apparent fissures that began to appear on Monday between Sanders and Warren — New England progressives who had seemed to remain allies during their respective campaigns and previous debates.
Four unnamed sources reportedly told CNN that Sanders remarked to Warren in December 2018 — two years after Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump — that he did not think a woman could win the presidency. In a statement to CNN, Sanders denied the comment, saying, “It is ludicrous to believe that at the same meeting where Elizabeth Warren told me she was going to run for president, I would tell her that a woman couldn’t win.”
Another question is how Tuesday’s panel — all qualifying candidates are now white — will relate with and appeal to minority voters. Three people of color remain in the race — Patrick, Yang and Gabbard — but did not qualify for the debate.
Booker announced his resignation from the race Monday morning, citing insufficient financial support “to scale up” his campaign. The New Jersey senator’s campaign website now hosts a short thank you to supporters and a link to a self-authored Medium article about his decision to drop out of the race.
According to an online Washington Post-Ipsos poll, the former vice president still holds a commanding lead with non-Hispanic black voters, according to the CNN. When asked how they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus today, 48% of 769 black registered Democrats chose Biden. The next closest candidates were Sanders with 20% and Warren with 9%.
Hosted by CNN and the Des Moines Register, the debate begins at 7 p.m. MST (9 p.m. EST) and will air exclusively on CNN and on the Register’s website. Wolf Blitzer and Abby Phillip of CNN and Brianne Pfannenstiel — chief politics reporter for the Register — will moderate.