The weeks after a tough election can feel like a cold, unrelenting storm. For Democrats, 2024 yielded a particularly bruising moment, one that has inspired despair, finger-pointing and heated debates over what must change for the party to return to power.
Yet, as cathartic as it may be for some Democrats to engage in hand-to-hand combat with one another online, I would recommend a much different course of action: Chill out. Take a deep breath. And most of all, be patient — even if that may feel impossible in this moment. There’s wisdom in pausing, reflecting and — perhaps most importantly — just waiting.
History offers an undeniable truth about American politics: The pendulum always swings back. And it does so of its own accord.
Just ask the folks on the other side of the aisle. There is no more dramatic example of the political pendulum than the Republican resurgence of 2024.
Consider the party’s recent trajectory. After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the GOP found itself with unified control over Washington — not unlike the state of play today. But their tenure at the top of the political mountain was fleeting, as the party proceeded to spend the next three election cycles propelling itself further and further into the wilderness.
The pendulum began to swing back in 2018, with a “blue wave” of opposition to Trump’s presidency sweeping Democrats back into the House majority. It further accelerated in 2020 when voters, frustrated with Trump’s chaotic presidency and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, replaced him with Joe Biden and provided the new commander-in-chief with a Senate majority to boot — handing all of D.C.’s levers of power back to Democrats and marking a complete reversal of the GOP’s fortunes in just a four-year span.
The slide continued in 2022. While many observers believed Republicans were destined to regain control of Capitol Hill (as is often the case in a new president’s first midterm), the so-called “red wave” failed to materialize. Instead, the GOP lost ground in the Senate and barely eked out a majority in the House — not the worst performance on record by any stretch, but still a significant underperformance of expectations.
So how did the GOP respond to these electoral repudiations? Did they engage in an extended bout of political soul-searching? Overhaul the party’s most fundamental principles and policy positions? Jettison a widely unpopular leader in a desperate bid to recapture the public’s hearts and minds?
Hardly.
If anything, Republicans doubled down — leaning further into the rhetoric and tactics that defined their seemingly troubled brand: culture wars, economic nostalgia and an embrace of Trump’s divisive leadership. Their strategy wasn’t about adaptation; it was about consistency. And it worked — not because a majority of the American public suddenly embraced their agenda, but because the political environment shifted.
In other words: because the pendulum swung back. Again.
A rapidly shifting landscape
That same pendulum is likely to continue swinging in the aftermath of 2024.
Trump may have reclaimed the presidency, but contrary to some of his supporters’ claims, his win was not a mandate. The latest counts reveal that more than half of all voters didn’t choose him, and he appears on track for the smallest margin of any popular vote winner since 2000′s razor-thin result. (And yes, that includes Hillary Clinton, who didn’t even become president.) Meanwhile, polls show that he remains broadly unpopular despite accomplishing one of the most mind-boggling political comebacks in American history.
This lack of overwhelming support matters — not because it affects the outcome of the election in any way, but because Trump appears poised to govern as if the entire country enthusiastically endorsed his vision. If the frequently bizarre first few weeks of his transition are any indication, we’re likely in for yet another chaotic presidency in which the policies pursued bear little resemblance to what most Americans want.
As a result, the political landscape six months from now will look very different than it does today. With Republicans back in power, they will no longer have the luxury of simply lobbing criticisms from the sidelines. Instead, they’ll be asked on a daily basis to answer for unpopular policies and Trump’s unique brand of around-the-clock chaos. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party will no longer bear the burden of governing during challenging times. Economic downturns, international crises and domestic policy failures won’t be laid at the feet of Democrats. This shift alone will transform public perception.
As Republicans apparently failed to learn in the first Trump era, misreading the room and pushing an unpopular agenda is a recipe for backlash — and Democrats stand to benefit once again.
The path forward
For Democrats, it’s easy to fall into the trap of believing that every setback signals the need for a fundamental overhaul. Some voices are already calling for a complete reinvention of the party. These critics argue that the Democratic platform has grown stale, that the party’s messaging doesn’t resonate and that the leadership is out of touch.
To be clear, I’m not here to argue that everything is fine and Democrats can simply bury their heads in the sand for the next few years. On the contrary, they should absolutely reflect on their losses and consider potential areas for improvement. Constructive conversations about the party’s future are essential, particularly as we prepare for 2026 and beyond. But these discussions must be rooted in pragmatism, not hysteria.
The Democratic Party’s core principles — safeguarding democracy, protecting personal freedoms and fighting to expand opportunity for all Americans, to name a few — resonate with a majority of Americans. These values don’t need to be overhauled; they need to be articulated with clarity, conviction and consistency.
In our highly polarized political environment, where every election seems to come down to a relative handful of votes in a few key locales, small adjustments in messaging, candidate recruitment and campaign tactics can make a significant difference. But these are changes on the margins, not a wholesale redefinition of what it means to be a Democrat.
More importantly, Democrats must avoid the self-destructive infighting that often follows electoral setbacks. The temptation to rashly assign blame — to point fingers at leadership, campaign strategies or specific factions within the party — is understandable but counterproductive. Instead, Democrats must focus on unity and preparation for the inevitable opportunity that will come when the pendulum swings back in their favor.
The lesson of 2024 isn’t that Democrats are fundamentally flawed or that their vision for America is out of touch. It’s that political fortunes are cyclical. Republicans spent years in the wilderness, enduring electoral disappointments before the tides turned in their favor. Their success in 2024 wasn’t about a transformation; it was about waiting for the right moment.
Democrats would do well to adopt a similar mindset. The pendulum always swings back. The question is whether Democrats will be ready when it does.
Steve Pierce, a contributing writer for Deseret, is a Democratic strategist and communications consultant who advises campaigns, causes and brands on matters of message and strategy. He is a senior director at Bully Pulpit International, a communications firm based in Washington, D.C.