The redistricting controversy is a quagmire. But the good news is that, regardless of one’s affiliation, all Utahns are witnessing history. We offer recent commentary from politicos.
Judge Dianna Gibson gave her highly anticipated ruling on congressional maps Monday night. She selected Plaintiff Map 1, drawn by the League of Women Voters and others. This map was not drawn by the boundary commission, reviewed by the Legislature or subject to public scrutiny. Many in Utah’s political community, as well as various national and state organizations, members of Congress, candidates, and lawmakers, are weighing their next steps.
Cowley & Pignanelli: Here is a list of potential, possible and almost impossible but not improbable scenarios:
Judge Gibson rejected the Legislature’s map and selected “Plaintiff Map 1,” citing that the legislative Map C “fails in many ways to comply with Proposition 4.” The Legislature will appeal this decision to the Utah Supreme Court, noting that the plaintiffs’ map does not comply with the existing state law contained in Proposition 4. Gibson’s decision also opens the door to an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, where the Legislature will claim a violation of the Constitution, which states that only the Legislature can determine how congressional representatives are elected.
Judge Gibson also stated the Legislature’s Map C was an “extreme partisan gerrymander.” Gerrymandering is in the eye of the beholder. Many would look at the map she selected and say that in a deeply red state like Utah, handing Democrats a 17-point advantage in one district and splitting Utah County in half is a textbook example of gerrymandering.
Due to the anticipated narrow margins in Congress resulting from the upcoming midterm elections, there will be intense pressure and an infusion of resources for local Republicans to fight the issue at every level. These funds will support litigation and other activities. Trump world will not overlook this decision and may advocate for an immediate injunction or appeal to higher courts.
Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson set Nov. 10 as the last day she could accept new maps and still administer the upcoming election on current timelines. However, the Legislature could convene in a special session to extend the filing deadline until March or April, allowing time for appeals and other actions.
The Republican Party’s direct initiative is likely to start its signature-gathering phase by this weekend. If they are successful, Proposition 4 will be back on the ballot for voters to either reaffirm or overturn. Under current law, that will not happen until the next general election in November, meaning this new map will govern the 2026 election cycle.
However, the Legislature could convene a special session to revise state law that allows for a “special initiative election” in the next several months to repeal Proposition 4 before a revised filing deadline. This approach is the nuclear option, but it may be the only alternative to prevent Gibson’s map from being implemented.
The Democrats may tap national resources to launch a public relations campaign aimed at persuading independents and moderate Republicans of the rationale behind Judge Gibson’s ruling.
What does this mean for the incumbent members of Congress, Ben McAdams and others already in the running?
Cowley & Pignanelli: Plans are underway for who will run where, and that brings posturing, horse trading (Renae’s favorite) and limitless “will they or won’t they” musings from hacks like us.
Politicos assume Rep. Blake Moore will run in the new District 2 (northern Utah), although he currently resides in District 1 (Salt Lake). Although McAdams’ federal paperwork was for District 4, it’s likely he will ultimately run in the new District 1 — the slam dunk for Democrats. A safe Democrat district coupled with a formidable Democratic opponent makes District 1 the least desirable for any Republican incumbent. Rep. Burgess Owens, should he run for reelection, is likely to file in the new District 4 (Western Utah County down to Fillmore). That leaves Congressman Mike Kennedy and Congresswoman Celeste Maloy to decide who will run in the new District 3 (Southern & Eastern Utah), where they both reside, or choose to run against each other.
With the shifting boundaries, some interparty challengers may surface. Republican names being discussed include Corey Norman, Sen. John Curtis’ chief of staff; Amelia Powers Gardner, Utah County Commissioner; Case Lawrence, an entrepreneur and runner-up to Kennedy in the 2024 Congressional Primary; Carolyn Phippen, a party insider; and perennial candidate Phil Lyman.
McAdams’ early entry does not preclude other Democrats considering their chances, including Mayor Erin Mendenhall, Mayor Jenny Wilson, and former candidates Caroline Gleich, Brian King and Kathleen Riebe. Considering how liberal the voters are in the new District 1, some insiders are musing whether McAdams is lefty enough to win the primary.
How does this ruling impact the upcoming legislative session and Utah politics in general?
Cowley & Pignanelli: The animosity of many GOP lawmakers toward Judge Gibson has increased. Political observers anticipate that the upcoming session will feature several bills focused on judicial reform. But do legislators pursue the impeachment process against her? This would be a controversial and unprecedented action.
A new Democratic seat incentivizes leftist national organizations to spend resources in Utah. This impacts elections in legislative and local swing districts.