Utah’s party convention season ended this weekend. Many in the media are claiming surprises in the results, but veteran observers are less shocked. Since your columnists are addicted to politics, we offer our perspective on recent developments.
GOP congressional heavyweight Blake Moore received 33.7% of the vote, while former legislator Karianne Lisonbee received 61.5%. Congresswoman Celeste Maloy garnered 50.95% to Phil Lyman’s 49.04%. State Senate President Stuart Adams is in a primary, capturing 55.1% against Braden Hess with 44.9%. In another closely watched race, Sen. Dan McCay barely qualified for the primary with 41.25% against Rep. Doug Fiefia’s 58.75%. On the Democratic side, an unknown newcomer, Liban Mohamed, received 51% of convention delegates. Were there surprises, or was it Utah politics as usual?
Cowley and Pignanelli: Delegate darlings and those who refuse to collect signatures continued to succeed at convention. Lyman historically performs well with delegates. He previously won the party nomination outright against Gov. Cox and is now in a primary fight against Maloy. Maloy is also a favorite of delegates. This was the only congressional race to go to a second ballot. Maloy won by a razor-thin margin — 50.95% to 49.04%. Congressman Mike Kennedy has never gathered signatures in his political career and garnered an impressive 78.7%. Moore secured a spot on the ballot through signature-gathering. His challenger, former state legislator Lisonbee, won the convention with 61.5%.
A few GOP races piqued the interest of onlookers and produced unexpected results. In Senate District 11, relatively unknown Brooks Bronson received 73% against former legislator John Knotwell and Chris Sloan. Adams, R-Layton — who has never been in a primary — will now face off against Braden Hess, who received 45% at convention, and Stephanie Hollist, who qualified through signatures.
Overall, there were no significant signs of a referendum on incumbents. House Speaker Mike Schultz, R-Hooper, won handily with 94.6% of the vote. Incumbent freshman Reps Tiara Auxier, R-Morgan, and Troy Shelley, R-Ephraim, earned their nominations with 92.2% and 79%, respectively. Sen. Scott Sandall, R-Tremonton, handily won the GOP nomination in his race.
With allegations of misconduct flying around the Congressional District 1 race, anything was possible in the Democratic Convention. Democrats now face a dynamic usually reserved for Republicans — multiple candidates in a primary. Former Congressman Ben McAdams; State Sen. Nate Blouin, D-Salt Lake City; Michael Farrell; and Mohammed qualified for the primary through signatures. Luis Villarreal and Eva Lopez were eliminated in the convention. The results of the lefty convention were not surprising to veteran observers.
McAdams leads in the polls, fundraising and name identification. The question will be whether national groups’ involvement in this race, or Republican and unaffiliated voters’ participation in the primary swing the pendulum one way or another.
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll asked respondents about their participation in precinct caucuses. Over 70% did not attend, while 10% professed they did. Will these attendance results, and those of the conventions, raise concerns and prompt changes?
Cowley and Pignanelli: Dentists and pollsters make liars of us all. When your dentist asks, “Have you been flossing every day?” nobody answers truthfully. Similar fibs are made when pollsters probe about political participation.
Let’s do the math. Ten percent of 2 million Utah voters is 200,000. The generous estimate is that 6,000 Democrats and 40,000 Republicans participated in precinct caucuses, approximately 2.3%.
Your columnists love their fellow Utahns. We all want to be civic-minded, which helps explain the overexaggerated response to the poll.
The underlying question many lawmakers and voters ask remains. Convention victories rarely match primary results. So is the small percentage of voters participating in precinct caucuses a true representation of Utah voters? If not, should the system be altered or preserved?
We believe lawmakers will not jettison delegates or conventions, but they might adjust signature thresholds, consider abolishing paid signature gatherers and make other modifications.
What can Utahns expect in the months leading up to the primary election in June?
Cowley and Pignanelli: With all the recent shocking revelations about candidates’ alleged past wrongdoings, it is hard to believe there is anything left to unearth, but when it comes to politics, never say never.
The most unexpected turn of events to keep an eye on is State House candidate Lisa Dean’s lawsuit. Dean came up three signatures shy of qualifying for the primary ballot against Rep. Ken Ivory, R-West Jordan. She is now suing the state over a perceived discrepancy in the election code. If she prevails, it would mean that multiple other candidates previously thought to be eliminated would also appear on the June ballot.
Expect campaign spending to launch into the stratosphere. McCay, R-Riverton, and Fiefia, R-Herriman, each have over $100,000 in the bank — a tidy sum for any legislative race — and fundraising continues to ramp up. Moore and former McAdams lead their respective fields with full coffers. Because of the intense partisanship in the map chosen through the judicial process, the primaries in Districts 1, 2, and 3 will determine the outcome of the November general election. Readers can expect a bombardment of advertising between now and June 23. On the bright side, this is one way to support a stagnant economy.