President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race. The Democratic Party is heading toward an open convention.
Ousting a presumptive nominee at convention would have been an uphill battle, but with Biden now out of the race, the path to find a nominee is clear. It will be done via delegates.
In order for a candidate to become the official nominee of the Democratic Party, they need to win the majority of the delegates. With Biden out of the running, delegates would not be pledged to vote for anyone — states’ laws and party rules make it difficult for delegates to vote for a candidate who did not win the primary unless they are released.
With the delegates released, the campaigning will begin.
Names have already floated around of who possible contenders could be: Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
It is likely that a handful of Democrats will soon toss their names into the ring and start calling delegates to make their pitch to them. Unlike campaigning in a primary election, where breadth of reach especially matters, these candidates would try to get the small group of delegates to coalesce around them.
Biden could possibly endorse a candidate in this situation, but delegates would not have to vote for the candidate he chose to endorse.
How would a Democrat declare candidacy now that has Biden dropped out?
Party rules say requests to nominate candidates need to be in writing and delivered to the convention secretary no later than 6 p.m. before the day designated for nominating a presidential candidate.
At least 300 delegates would need to sign a petition accompanying the proposed nomination or they would need to get more than 600 delegate votes (50 or less could come from one delegation) in order to qualify as a candidate under consideration for the nomination.
How voting would work at an open convention
Getting into the nitty gritty of voting, the first round would consist of delegates — but not superdelegates — voting. If the majority of the roughly 4,000 coalesce around one presidential candidate, then that candidate will win the nomination. But in the case of a split vote where no candidate wins a majority, the superdelegates can vote.
Superdelegates are generally Democratic politicians, activists, donors and thought leaders. Delegates are chosen at a more local level that may differ from state to state. Candidates will have a few minutes to make their cases to the delegates in this scenario.
The voting rounds would continue until a candidate received a majority. Though the Democratic Party had decided to go with a virtual roll call meeting to choose the nominee ahead of convention due to an Ohio deadline, that deadline has now changed.
It is unclear if the Democratic Party would decide to still choose its nominee ahead of convention or wait a couple of weeks until the convention begins to do the voting process. And it is also possible the party could change its rules around voting ahead of the open convention, which could impact the rules and procedures.
Democrats would have to figure out a nomination at convention because soon after it may be difficult for the candidate to get on the ballot then. States administer their own elections and deadlines for parties to submit their official nominees start in late August.
What about all the money the Biden campaign raised?
There is money still in the Biden campaign coffers. There are a couple situations to consider. This is an area of law that has been tested, but with an unprecedented situation, experts have expressed uncertainly about what might happen.
If Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, the answer is easy: She could use the money. This is because her name is also registered on the campaign account with the Federal Election Commission.
But say someone else wins the nomination, then it is possible the money could be returned to donors. They could decide if they wanted to donate to the new campaign or not. The Hill reported this is a fuzzy scenario, because it is possible primary money could not be refunded, but cash intended for the general election may be required to be refunded.
There is also another potential scenario. Steve Roberts, partner at Holtzman Vogel and former general counsel on Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign, told The Hill the money could be also be transferred — but with caveats.
“Even if Biden is not the nominee, he would have the authority to direct his campaign treasurer on what to do with the remnant funds — whether that is a transfer in full to the DNC, to a super PAC supporting the new nominee or parsed out up to contribution limits to various other campaigns with the balance to the DNC or a super PAC,” said Roberts.
It is worth noting this only applies to funds directly donated to the campaign. Dark money and super PACs could redirect their spending without dealing with the same legal hurdles campaign money would have go to through.
Will there be any pushback?
It is difficult to predict the reaction of Democratic voters in an unprecedented scenario like this. Democratic voters may be disgruntled by having delegates select the party’s candidate rather than a primary election that delegates are bound to — but polls show a majority of Democratic voters want to see Biden replaced.
It is also possible there will be legal challenges.
The Heritage Foundation is reportedly preparing legal challenges in the event Biden drops out before or after convention, per Fox News.
“We are monitoring the calls from across the country for President Biden to step aside, either now or before the election, and have concluded that the process for substitution and withdrawal is very complicated,” said Mike Howell, executive director of the foundation’s Oversight Project. “We will remain vigilant that appropriate election integrity procedures are followed.”
State laws generally allow candidates chosen at convention before their deadlines to appear on the ballots, but it is unclear what impact these legal challenges could have due to the novelty of the situation.