Over two months have passed since President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in this 2024 presidential election’s first debate. On Tuesday, when Trump takes the stage against Vice President Kamala Harris, the two candidates kick off a frantic final sprint to Election Day — against the backdrop of an entirely different race.
In the weeks following Biden’s poor performance in that June debate, the election flipped on its head: a would-be assassin made an attempt on Trump’s life, Biden dropped out of the race, and Harris breathed new life into Democrats’ White House hopes.
With less than two months until Election Day, Tuesday’s debate is Harris’ and Trump’s best opportunity to gain momentum.
“Both campaigns need something to shift the dynamic in their favor right now,” said Ben Warner, director of the University of Missouri’s Political Communication Institute. “There’s no better opportunity than this debate.”
Audience expectations for debate
If past presidential debates are any indication, the Tuesday night event in Philadelphia (7 p.m. MT, ABC) should play host to a massive audience, likely over 70 million people. “It’s almost certainly going to be the most-viewed single event this year, other than the Super Bowl,” Warner said.
It’s an opportunity that the two campaigns are managing in markedly different fashions. Trump has opted to prepare for the debate by holding a half-dozen “policy sessions” with top aides in recent weeks, The Washington Post reports, assisted by former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who ran against Harris in the 2020 presidential primary. Harris, meanwhile, has participated in a “debate camp,” where her team crafted a mock debate studio and enrolled a Trump stand-in to lead hours of debate role play.
Trump, whose performance in the June debate launched Republicans into weeks of celebration, looks to replicate that success. Ever since Biden dropped out in late July, Trump’s lead in national polling has vanished. Trump and Harris are now neck-and-neck in polls.
If either candidate has an opportunity for a post-debate polling bump, it’s Harris, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll: 28% of likely voters said they still need to know more about Harris, while only 9 percent said the same of Trump.
“The tens of millions of people that tune into this may be seeing Harris for the first time,” Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan, said. “She needs to reassure people that they know what they’ll get from her.”
Harris has faced criticism throughout her short-lived campaign for being sparse on her policy plans. She unveiled key parts of her economic agenda in an August speech and detailed her foreign policy strategy during her DNC acceptance address. But in the debate, when Trump attacks her for not being forthright, Harris cannot “wiggle her way out” with more ambiguity, said Scott Howell, the former Utah Senate minority leader.
“In the debate that she’s having with Trump, she has got to be forward in those answers, and no excuses,” said Howell, who hosted Harris in Salt Lake City for the 2020 vice presidential debate.
The debate is a prime opportunity to explain to voters who she is, Warner added. “A lot of voters know she is the vice president, but not much more,” he said. “They really want to see the kind of person she is, and want to feel they know what she stands for. That’s the type of learning you get from watching someone for 90 minutes, unscripted, against their opponent.”
Will Trump stay on message?
Trump, meanwhile, will attempt to convince voters that they already know enough about her. Even as Harris polls near Trump head-to-head, a majority of American voters remain pessimistic about the economy and the overall direction of the country, according to an August Deseret News/HarrisX national poll. The Trump campaign has attempted to pin that unpopularity on Harris.
“It’s not complicated: (Trump) needs to focus on his record versus her record,” said Larry Elder, an ally of Trump and a Republican political commentator. “Most Americans think we’re on the wrong track on the economy. They think we’re on the wrong track on immigration. (Harris) says she’s the last person in the room on every major decision, but somehow she’s distanced herself from the bad ones.”
That strategy will require Trump to be disciplined and focused. In his six general election presidential debates — in 2016, 2020 and 2024 — Trump has often come across as brash and derogatory, which hurts him among undecided voters. “You don’t need to call Kamala ‘dumb,’” Nikki Haley, who endorsed Trump at the RNC in July, said on Fox News Monday. “You don’t need to talk about intelligence or looks or anything else. Just focus on the policies.”
Trump has shown short flashes of discipline, Kall said. “He should try to emulate the beginning of the June debate,” Kall said. “The beginning of that debate was good, and the beginning of his RNC speech was good. He was not as nasty as he’s been in past debates.”
That approach will help him among undecided voters, Elder added. “Trump needs to understand his audience isn’t The New York Times; it’s the handful of people who haven’t made their decision who think he’s erratic and chaotic,” he said. “He needs to be calm and make his case: are you better now than you were four years ago?”
Will Trump do that? “I think he’ll be advised to do that,” Elder added, laughing. “Trump is Trump. He’s a spontaneous guy. That’s what makes him great. But he can also be his own worst enemy.”
At a recent rally, Trump seemed to say which route he would choose. “You know, they always say, ‘Sir, please stick to policy, don’t get personal,’” Trump said, probably referring to his advisors.
Later at the rally, Trump let the crowd decide. “Should I get personal, or should I not get personal?” The first option, Politico reported, got the loudest cheers.