The issues voters are most worried about this election cycle are felt especially deep in Utah’s swing-state neighbors, Nevada and Arizona. But one issue unique to the Southwest appears to be getting swept under the rug.
Nevada has been impacted by inflation more than anywhere. Arizona has been at the frontlines of the border crisis. But the two states, like Utah, are also among those with the most severe shortages of affordable homes in the nation.
And while former President Donald Trump is more trusted by voters to tackle economic and immigration issues, he may be missing an opportunity to address a “huge pain point” for eight out of 10 voters in the election’s pivotal desert battlegrounds, according to the region’s premier political pollster, Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.
“Trump definitely holds the high ground on these economic issues. What’s interesting though, Trump doesn’t have a big breakout gain on housing affordability,” Noble said. “So there’s an opportunity there between the Trump camp and the Harris camp to gain on that issue because it is a big priority.”
In what Noble called “a smart move,” Vice President Kamala Harris recently introduced housing proposals to increase supply across the country by 3 million units through a program of cutting regulatory red tape, subsidizing first-time homebuyers and implementing rent controls. Regardless of the economic merits of these plans, Noble said Trump also needs to place the issue of housing affordability front and center to increase his odds of winning in Arizona and Nevada.
Worries about being able to afford a home have skyrocketed in the West in the last few years, especially among independent and Hispanic voters, Noble said, making it one of the most important issues for Trump or Harris to address in order to win undecided voters. It consistently ranks in the top three issues along with inflation and immigration, Noble Predictive Insights polling found.
The issue is influential for voters in the West because many residents made the choice to live in Arizona and Nevada “because they know it’s a lower cost of living compared to the East Coast, West Coast, and there’s more opportunities,” Noble said — and voters are eager for the Southwest to return to their reason for braving the heat.
At this point, residents of the Silver and Copper states have become accustomed to the Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz motorcades passing through town — by the end of the week, the 2024 presidential nominees from both major parties will have visited Arizona and Nevada, two of the country’s seven “toss-up” states, a total of 24 times.
But Noble and top political consultants in Arizona and Nevada told the Deseret News that the presidential candidates, hailing respectively from the East and West coasts — as well as their Midwestern running mates — can do more to resonate with voters in Utah’s corner of the United States.
“In the political discourse, people still don’t understand fully what makes people in the Southwest tick,” Noble said.
Inflation
Arizona and Nevada are especially sensitive to the issues that have dominated political conversations this election cycle.
A national New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in early September found that most voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote. If inflation is included, then 28% of voters consider this their top issue, the poll found.
Abortion, at 14%; immigration, at 12%; and the state of democracy at 7% came next on the list, with candidate character and dislike of the opposing candidate tied at 6%.
Economic concerns are especially poignant in Nevada, where 30% of voters selected the economy or inflation as their top issue in an earlier New York Times poll.
Nevada’s unique economy has made the state especially susceptible to the impacts of inflation, said Zachary Moyle, the head pollster at Reformation Strategies. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate of any state and one of the highest cumulative inflation rates in the country, with the same goods and services costing $1,200 more a month than they did in 2021.
“We’re a great barometer for the economy because we’re built on tourism, number one, and then number two, that blue collar atmosphere around it, the casino folks, restaurant folks,” Moyle said. “Their jobs are very dependent upon the economy itself and how it’s moving.”
Immigration
Like the rest of the nation, Arizona has also been impacted by rising prices. But it is immigration that has long made Arizona stand out, according to Chuck Coughlin, CEO and President of the polling firm HighGround, Inc.
“Arizona is, I say, the most mature voting universe of immigration-related voters in the country,” Coughlin said. “It was abundantly evident this was a huge problem when nobody else was talking about it.”
A Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted of 1,000 Arizonans in August found that immigration was the No. 1 issue voters considered a top concern, with almost one quarter (24%) of Arizona voters placing it first. Slightly fewer (23%) picked inflation, 13% picked abortion and 10% picked affordable housing.
Voters consistently trust Republicans more on questions of the economy and immigration, that’s why Stan Barnes, the founder of Copper State consulting group, believes Trump “will carry Arizona.”
There was a sense of “relative border security” and economic stability under the former president, Barnes said. “And so Trump’s desire to address that issue is winning big points with people.”
A battle over abortion access
But Trump appears to be losing points on abortion, where his position remains ambiguous and he stands 17 percentage points underwater.
In Arizona and Nevada, the battle for the presidency has boiled down to a balancing game between voters’ concerns about the economy and whether they believe Democratic talking points about Republicans attempting to take away their access to abortion, said Adam Jones, senior political strategist at Redrock Strategies.
Abortion is typically the top issue for less than 10% of voters, Jones said, but “it is an issue that is driving folks to the polls, and it’s an emotional issue that is working for the Democrats.”
Ballots in Arizona and Nevada will carry an amendment to enshrine abortion as a constitutional right until the point of fetal viability outside of the womb, around 24 weeks, or five and a half months, of pregnancy.
Arizona currently has a 15-week ban on abortions with exceptions for “medical emergencies.” Nevada law already allows abortions up until 24 weeks of pregnancy, but supporters of the ballot initiative say a constitutional amendment would make abortion access much more difficult to restrict in the future.
Opponents say the amendments could be interpreted to permit elective abortions through all nine months of pregnancy because of language that makes exceptions for late-term abortions based on the “mental health of the pregnant individual.”
Harris’ campaign, which has focused heavily on “reproductive freedoms,” could make real inroads with voters in Arizona and Nevada, where 80% of voters say they support the 24-week limit on abortion, even if the Democratic ticket isn’t seen as the most likely to solve inflation or immigration, Moyle said.
“The big effective argument here is Democrats continually saying that Republicans are going to take your rights away. Democrats never use the term ‘abortion,’” Moyle said. “And so because of that, you have voters that go, ‘You know what? I’ll pay more for milk, because I think my rights are at stake.’”
Arizona and Nevada at a glance
As Arizona has teetered on the edge of becoming a full-blown purple state during the Trump era, Nevada appears on the verge of leaving its bellwether background behind to become more Republican friendly.
Following three presidential election cycles where the GOP candidate won by 10 percentage points, Arizona elected Trump by four points in 2016 and then flipped for President Joe Biden in 2020 by just 10,000 votes.
Trump currently polls ahead of Harris in Arizona by 1.5 percentage points on average — within the margin of error, but far ahead of his Senate candidate counterpart, Kari Lake, who trails Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego by seven points.
Over the last 20 years, Nevada has been the quintessential bellwether state, predicting the outcome of the presidential election nearly 90% of the time. The streak was broken in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the state by two-and-a-half percentage points, but it was regained in 2020 when Biden won the state by the same margin.
This year, the Democratic nominee holds a lead of less than one percentage point over her GOP opponent in an average of Nevada polls. The two candidates alternate first place depending on the pollster, with The New York Times/Siena College poll putting Trump ahead by more than one point last month. As in Arizona, Trump far outperforms the GOP Senate pick, with Sam Brown trailing Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen by 10 percentage points.
Trump and Harris are practically tied in the Real Clear Politics polling average of the top seven battleground states, with Harris ahead by 0.1 percentage points as of Friday. On average, Harris is leading in national polls by 1.5 points, but both candidates are favored to win by different election models.
