President-elect Donald Trump won Tuesday’s general election by much larger margins than polls previously indicated. The results showed a shift in support to Trump among members of several demographic groups.
“Young and old, men and women, rural and urban. And we had them all helping us tonight,” Trump said in his victory speech in Florida.
“They had some great analysis of the people that voted for us. Nobody’s ever seen anything like that. They came from all quarters — union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American. We had everybody, and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment, uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”
In an analysis from the Financial Times’ assessment of the exit polls, Trump increased his vote share in traditionally Democratic strongholds, like New York and Connecticut. Meanwhile, red states grew redder, with the exception of Utah — although votes are still being tabulated in the state.
Exit polls aren’t completely reliable on the day of the election. That’s because new information comes in throughout the night, shifting the results, and other statistical analysis can only be done once polls are closed, as The New York Times reported.
“In 2016, for example, exit polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald J. Trump. Later, they showed a majority of white women voting for Trump,” the Times’ Kaleigh Rogers wrote. “Both of these narratives proved to be untrue.”
However, the troves of data collected on Election Day can show some trends among different demographic groups after the races are called. Here’s where Trump gained and lost ground, according to an initial analysis.
The gender gap
CNN’s exit polls show Trump’s lead among men slightly grew compared to the last two cycles. He had a 13-percentage-point edge over Harris.
Among women, Harris enjoyed an 8-percentage-point advantage, but she did not perform better than President Joe Biden or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She did do better with women of color.
White women chose Trump over Biden by 11 percentage points in 2020, but this time around, that lead diminished by 3 percentage points.
Latinos edge toward Trump
Trump made improvements with Latino voters — and especially Latino men. He carved a 12-percentage-point lead among Hispanic males, who previously preferred Biden by 23 percentage points, and Clinton by 31 percentage points, according to CNN’s exit polls.
Harris led Latina women by 22 percentage points, but underperformed compared to Biden and Clinton.
Harris less popular among Black men
Support among Black men for Harris waned this election with her ahead by about 56 percentage points, compared to previous years, where Clinton was ahead by 69 percentage points and Biden by 60 percentage points.
But Harris did fairly well with Black women. She secured 84% among these voters, placing her 3 percentage points ahead of Biden and 6 percentage points behind Clinton.
Trump wins over Gen Z, millennials, not so much with baby boomers
Younger voters, between the ages of 18 and 29 years, moved toward Trump by about 13 percentage points compared to 2020.
He also did better among millennial voters, closing in on Harris, who was ahead by only 1 percentage point.
Among 45- to 64-year-olds, Trump picked up a 10 percentage point lead, compared to the 1- and 8 percentage point lead in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
But Trump lost ground among senior citizens. He was tied with Harris among seniors.
Trump gains moderates
During the last presidential cycle, moderates preferred Biden to Trump by about 30 percentage points. But Harris was ahead among moderate voters by 17 percentage points.