- Donald Trump's former national security adviser said Israel's attacks could make a nuclear deal more likely.
- Trump said on Truth Social that Iranians should evacuate their capital city of Tehran.
- To completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel will likely need U.S. bomber planes.
Former Ambassador Robert O’Brien, who served as national security adviser to President Donald Trump from 2019 to 2021, predicted on Monday that Israel’s attack on Iran will do more than delay the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
In an interview with the Deseret News, O’Brien said Israel’s barrage of airstrikes that have destroyed the country’s military chain of command and hobbled its uranium enrichment infrastructure could also lead to the downfall of the authoritarian theocracy.
“The regime probably can’t survive if this war continues for a couple more weeks and senior leadership keeps being taken out,” O’Brien said.
During the first Trump administration, O’Brien played an important role in the Abraham Accords, formally normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and several other predominantly Muslim nations.
O’Brien hopes that Israel’s fight for survival in the region, paired with the Trump administration’s “peace through strength” approach, could initiate another seismic shift in Middle East policy.
“If you combine those things, the talents in Israel, and the finances in the Gulf and Iran, the Middle East could literally become the economic engine of the world,” O’Brien said.
For now, the Trump administration needs to double down on its “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran, O’Brien said. But if Iran’s clerical leadership prioritizes its continued existence more than a prolonged battle with Israel, there could be another chance for a deal.
Starting in April, the Trump administration opened a 60-day window for talks with Iranian diplomats about a new agreement that would relieve economic pressure on Iran in exchange for dismantling their nuclear program.
This arrangement, which O’Brien called a “very generous offer,” was rejected by Iranian officials. And on the 61st day, Israel launched its bombardment of Iran’s enrichment facilities, followed shortly after by an announcement by Iran that the next round of negotiations with the U.S. would be canceled.
In multiple posts on Truth Social, Trump has continued to promise that a deal will come to achieve peace between Israel and Iran and to “make the Middle East great again!”
On Monday, Trump said Iran “should have signed the ‘deal’ (he) told them to sign.”
“IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!” Trump wrote, adding without further explanation: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran.”
Despite early statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio distancing the U.S. from Israel’s attack, O’Brien said that the U.S. and Israel always coordinate on major activities.
And if Israel wants to completely destroy Iran’s hard-to-reach nuclear enrichment sites, the country will need access to the U.S. military’s B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers, O’Brien said.
Regardless of whether the U.S. gets involved directly, O’Brien believes Israel’s actions will likely push Iran to negotiate on Trump’s terms.
“I think the deal is more likely since the attacks than it was before,” O’Brien said.
Why did Israel attack Iran?
On Friday, the Israeli military changed the shape of Middle Eastern conflict with its first direct attack on Iranian nuclear enrichment sites across the country.
The United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency had voted to censure the Iranian regime on Thursday for working to develop enough weapons-grade uranium for several nuclear warheads.
Iran has explicitly stated its objective is to destroy the state of Israel. As U.S.-Iran negotiations over a nuclear deal stalled after five rounds, and following the IAEA report, Israeli officials said Iran “had reached the point of no return.”
Dozens of Israeli airstrikes early Friday morning eliminated several of the Islamic Republic‘s top military commanders, the country’s top negotiator in the nuclear talks with the U.S. and their leading nuclear scientists.
Israel expanded its attack over coming days, bombarding multiple Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, hitting gas storage tanks and blasting the state-owned TV station during a live broadcast.
Israel’s military operation has already gone a long way toward achieving their two objectives of eliminating Iran’s missile launchers, and dismantling the country’s nuclear program, according to Alex Plitsas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council studying global terrorism threats.
“If you’re going to open this door, you don’t close it halfway,” Plitsas told the Deseret News. “That’s why the strikes are still ongoing, and why it’s so significant.”
By Monday, Israeli authorities stated they had achieved “aerial superiority” over the Iranian capital of Tehran after destroying over one hundred Iranian missile launchers, roughly one-third of the country’s total arsenal.
Iran immediately returned Israel’s attacks with dozens of ballistic missiles, some making it through Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, hitting apartment buildings and residential areas.
State agencies have reported at least 220 deaths in Iran and at least 20 in Israel.
The conflict is likely to remain between just Israel and Iran unless the Trump administration decides that it is in America’s interest to provide the firepower needed to destroy the Fordow nuclear site in Iran, Plitsas said, an important enrichment laboratory built into a mountain, 300-feet below ground.
“This is not over with because if the purpose of the operation was to render the program ineffective ... they won’t have achieved their goal,” Plitsas said.