Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation from Congress and exit from the California governor’s race created shock waves as donors and politicians scrambled to throw their support behind another front-runner to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Swalwell’s resignation from political life comes amid allegations of sexual misconduct and sexual assault, which he and his lawyers categorically deny.
According to a poll conducted amid the swirling allegations against Swalwell, Democrat Tom Steyer, an entrepreneur and philanthropist, is the favorite, with 21% of the vote.
Before the news regarding Swalwell broke, Steyer gained 22% of support, but his approval dropped by five percentage points after April 10.
As Jeff Le, the former deputy cabinet secretary for California Gov. Jerry Brown, noted, Steyer emerged as the front-runner for a few reasons.
"(This) chief opponent to Swalwell has been self-funding his campaign and, as a billionaire, has unlimited resources in a race that requires significant funds for name ID," said Le.
He also said that no Republican has won the gubernatorial race in California since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
“In a state where President Trump consistently polls in the low 30s and with voter registration at a significant Democratic advantage, it is unlikely that a Republican could beat a Democrat in a general.”
Top candidates running for California governor
Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton received 18% support, leading among younger voters, seniors, parents, conservatives, rural voters and high-income groups.
Hilton served as an adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, a conservative, from 2010 until 2012.
He is one of the two Republicans “who could finish in the top two; however, President Trump endorsed Hilton and polls have already seen a shift between him and Riverside County Sheriff (Chad) Bianco,” said Le.
Progressive Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Bianco tied for third place with Swalwell at 9%. Their ratings experienced nominal changes.
Where Swalwell performed well was among people who view themselves as “somewhat liberal,” Porter performed best, at 17%, among voters of Asian or other descent, as did Steyer.
Bianco’s strongest support comes from Republicans, with 24% backing him, although Hilton leads this group substantially with 47%.
California could elect a Republican governor
Five other Democrats drew support in the single digits, largely 5% or lower. That includes former speaker of the California State Assembly Antonio Villaraigosa, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, former California State Controller Betty Yee, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.
Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, who represents a more moderate Democratic standpoint similar to Swalwell’s, is trailing in polls but has benefited from a fundraising boost after the Swalwell news broke, as Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, wrote for The Washington Post.
More progressive candidates like Steyer and Porter may struggle to gain broad support from the Democratic Party, he noted.
Where Steyer’s activist background and investments weigh him down, for Porter, it’s her “heavy political baggage,” noting her appearance on CBS News where she cut the interview short over too many follow-ups from a reporter.
“In California, both major parties’ candidates appear on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election,” writes Olsen.
“Democrats have been sounding alarm bells that their big, divided field could pave the way for two Republicans — Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — to finish first and second.”
President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton on April 5 — despite concerns from political analysts on both sides of the aisle that this move could damage the likelihood of a two-Republican ticket, as the Deseret News previously reported.
According to Le, “As of today, Hilton will likely finish first in the June primary with Steyer potentially finishing second.”
“Rep. Porter and Mayor Mahan — backed by Big Tech and moderates — could gain more momentum but with three weeks until mail-in ballots arriving and little money, it could be too little too late."
Is Swalwell still on the ballot?
Swalwell dropped out of the race after the formal deadline to withdraw, meaning his name will still appear on the June 2 primary election ballots due to the timing of his exit from the race, adding to the confusion, CalMatters reported.
It also complicates matters for California’s labor groups, who had endorsed him and must now quickly reassess.
But the likes of the Service Employees International Union and California Teachers Association may not have time to go through the internal processes to pick another candidate.
And other heavyweights in Democratic politics that had endorsed Swalwell and then withdrew their support may not have time to go back to the drawing board to pick a new candidate.
“Most people look to labor for guidance, especially on the Democratic side,” political strategist Marva Diaz, who primarily works with Democrats but is not involved in any of the ongoing gubernatorial campaigns, told CalMatters.
“When labor organizations are not working in tandem, it causes a lot of confusion.”
Will Newsom endorse someone in the California governor’s race?
The special election to fill Swalwell’s seat is scheduled for Aug. 18, as Newsom announced in a proclamation.
His decision comes two days after Swalwell announced his plans to resign from Congress.
“I am deeply sorry to my family, staff, and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations made against me,” Swalwell said in a post on social media.
Newsom faces growing pressure to intervene in the chaotic gubernatorial race, especially amid the possibility that two GOP candidates have a chance to advance in the upcoming primary.
As CNN reported, he has taken meetings and is seeking data and polling to better assess the situation.
The California governor has been reluctant to hand out an endorsement but the stakes are high for the Democratic Party in California as well as for Newsom, whose presidential bid will be impacted by his successor.
The report states that Newsom’s proffered candidate, friend and political ally, namely Sen. Alex Padilla, decided not to run last November. Since then, the California governor has maintained a distance from this major race, but that could soon change.