Ahead of November’s midterm elections, national political attention has focused on whether Republicans can keep their plus-three majority in the House.
Democrats also hope they can win a majority in the Senate, amid continued frustration about gas prices and the war in Iran.
In order to take control of the upper chamber, which Republicans currently control 53-47, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats — which could be an uphill battle amid questions about some candidates.
Graham Platner and the Senate race in Maine
When Maine Gov. Janet Mills dropped her Democratic bid for Senate in late April, she cleared the way for oyster farmer and combat veteran Graham Platner to be the leading Democrat on the ballot this fall.
Platner has since faced a series of controversies over his past behavior and claims.
Platner, who is expected to win the June 9 primary against long-shot candidate David Costello, and Mills, who is still on the ballot, will then go up against incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November.
Platner’s campaign has been plagued by controversy, the most recent scandal involving sexual text messages sent to several women. His wife, Amy Gertner, told campaign officials last summer that she knew about the messages, but said they had since stopped, The New York Times reported.
Gertner, who married Platner in 2023, released a video talking about “gossip,” and said that “no marriage is perfect.”
Earlier in his campaign, Platner came under fire over a chest tattoo resembling a Totenkopf, a Nazi symbol. Platner said he got the tattoo in 2007 while serving in the Marines during a night of drinking. He has since covered it up.
Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss told CNN he believes the tattoo and Platner’s “commentary about it” should be “disqualifying.”
Latest polling from RealClearPolitics shows Platner leading Collins as of Monday, but FiveThirtyEight founder and political analyst Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin blog that polling often puts Democrats ahead in Maine while under-crediting the pull Collins has with her state. Maine, he explained, is a state that defies norms and “beats to its own drummer” when it comes to political outlook and views of candidate personality. It is one of the country’s most uncertain states to predict voting behavior, Silver noted.
Can Democrats take Texas?
The Lone Star State is also in the spotlight this year.
Voters last week finalized candidate selections in the Democratic and Republican primaries, including the highly anticipated Senate runoff between two Republicans — incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Paxton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, won the runoff by 28 points. The endorsement, combined with low voter turnout in urban areas, ended Cornyn’s 20-year run in the Senate.
Meanwhile, Democratic state Rep. James Talarcio secured his spot on the general ballot against Paxton in early March. His campaign reported raising more than $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton’s win, marking the largest day of fundraising for his campaign. If Talarico wins, he would be Texas’ first elected Democratic senator since 1988.
Paxton has served as Texas’ attorney general since 2015. The Republican-led Texas House overwhelmingly impeached Paxton in 2023 over allegations of bribery and obstruction of justice, but he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. He was indicted on felony security fraud charges but those charges were later dismissed.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which previously backed Cornyn, scrubbed its social media pages of posts that bashed Paxton immediately after his win.
While Talarico is currently ahead in polls, the Cook report says this race “leans” Republican.
Swing state toss-ups
In Georgia, sitting Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for re-election unopposed.
Meanwhile, two Georgia Republicans will advance to a runoff on June 16. Republican voters will have to choose whether to advance Rep. Mike Collins, or former football coach Derek Dooley.
Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the state’s primary, but it’s not off the table since he delayed endorsing Paxton.
While Ossoff had an easy path to the ballot in November, Georgia is seen as one of the better chances Republicans have to flip a sitting Democratic senator this election cycle. It’s a solidly purple state that swings back and forth often: in 2020, the state voted for former President Joe Biden and in 2024, state voters chose Trump.
In Michigan, which also flipped from blue in 2020 to red in 2024, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has a fighting chance after narrowly losing in 2024 to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The open seat comes after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement.
Rogers, the lone Republican candidate, will advance to the November general election. Meanwhile, Democrats face a crowded primary in early August. The highly competitive three-way race will be between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed.
Still a few months out, the Michigan Democratic primary is shaping up to be very tight and unpredictable, according to Decision Desk HQ polling.
El-Sayed is narrowly leading at 24%, with Stevens and McMorrow both with about 21%.
Open seats out East
In New Hampshire, which holds one of the year’s latest primaries on Sept. 8, Republicans and Democrats are vying to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, following her retirement.
Republicans feel confident they can flip the seat with John E. Sununu, a former Republican representative and the son of John H. Sununu and brother of Chris Sununu, both of whom were governors of New Hampshire. Sununu faces a few other Republican challengers but his household name recognition in the state is expected to push him through to November.
For Democrats, the likely candidate appears to be Rep. Chris Pappas. RealClearPolitics most recent averages have Pappas narrowly besting Sununu in November. New Hampshire notably was one of the few toss-up states that went for Democrats in the 2024 presidential election.
Heading south, another close race is expected in North Carolina, after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper secured the Democratic nomination in an early March primary. He served as governor from 2017-2025 and held several other political positions in the state dating back to 1987.
In November, he’ll face Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee and previous North Carolina Republican Party chair. Recent polling averages put Cooper slightly ahead and this seat is viewed by Cook Political Report as the most likely seat to flip from Republican to Democratic this fall.
Millions of dollars have been poured into the race and the contest, as described by Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper, is going to be a “true test” of where the state is at politically.
What’s happening in the Midwest?
Longtime Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown hopes to reclaim his seat in Congress. Brown lost his seat to Trump-backed Bernie Moreno in 2024.
Brown, a well-known name in the Hawkeye State, won the Democratic primary in early May, setting up a general election race against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to his Senate seat last year by Gov. Mike DeWine when JD Vance became vice president.
Polling averages show Husted with a slight lead over Brown.
Iowa is also a state to watch. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced she wouldn’t run for reelection, leaving the seat open.
Two Republicans and two Democrats are facing off in the primary election in Iowa on Tuesday. The field is made up of either former or sitting state lawmakers, leaving many in the state unsure of who to back, The Associated Press reported.
Things to keep in mind
Senate races in several other states could also be competitive, including in Minnesota, Alaska, Florida and Montana.
Notably, Americans turn out for midterm elections at lower rates than in presidential years. Additionally, there are 11 open Senate seats this year in which an incumbent is not running for reelection.
With just 154 days left until Nov. 3, the countdown for candidates on either side of the aisle is on.