The countdown to November’s midterm elections is on, with primary races underway across the country.
Democrats are hoping to flip control of the Senate with a few key toss-up races, while Republicans are looking to hold on to their majority in the upper chamber.
In order to take control of the Senate, which Republicans currently control 53-47, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats, which could be an uphill battle.
These key states are in play
Maine: Democrats call on Platner to drop out
The Senate race in Maine is growing more complicated, with Democratic candidate Graham Platner facing sexual assault allegations, which has prompted calls for him to end his campaign ahead of a Monday deadline.
Platner, whose campaign has faced numerous scandals, is reportedly refusing to drop out unless he’s able to name the Democratic successor who would take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November.
He cleared the Democratic primary last month easily after sitting Maine Gov. Janet Mills ended her campaign, citing a lack of resources to continue. Platner looked like he had a chance to end Collins’ tenure in the Senate and put the first Democrat in the upper chamber for the Pine Tree State since the ’80s.
But with the latest allegations of rape by an ex-girlfriend, and Democrats calling on Platner to drop out, the party’s chances in the state — and who will be on the ballot in November — are now uncertain.
Match-ups in North Carolina, Texas
Down south, things are heating up between former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. Cook Political Report rates the seat as the most likely to flip from GOP control to Democratic.
The race is garnering attention as millions of dollars are being spent in the contest and it is being seen as a “true test” of where the purple state of North Carolina stands politically in 2026.
In Texas, Democrats are hopeful that James Talarico can beat GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton in the typically Republican state.
Talarico, a state lawmaker, cleared the primary, beating sitting Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Meanwhile, Paxton beat out incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff after being endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Talarico’s campaign reported raising more than $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton won the runoff. While Talarico and Paxton are tied in most polls, Cook Political Report says the race leans toward the Republican candidate.
Other competitive states
Other states to keep an eye out for include Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is leading Rep. Mike Collins, who beat out former football coach Derek Dooley in the Republican primary. Collins, like Paxton, secured the endorsement of Trump in the runoff.
Now, Georgians will have to decide between a sitting senator or a sitting member of the House. Polling shows Ossoff with a lead over Collins, but the swing-state nature of Georgia puts it into play.
In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow recently announced she was ending her campaign, disrupting the highly competitive three-way race, leaving Rep. Haley Stevens to take on more liberal Wayne Country health director Abdul El-Sayed in the early August primary. After McMorrow’s announcement, polling shows El-Sayed with a lead over Stevens.
On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rodgers has a chance to win the open seat after he narrowly lost in 2024 to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
In Ohio, longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is looking to reclaim his seat in Congress after losing to Trump-backed Bernie Moreno in 2024. He’s set to face off against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed by the governor to replace JD Vance when he became vice president.
Polls are mixed, with some showing Husted leading and others with Brown out front.
Voters in New Hampshire will have to decide between two household names. On the Republican side, former Sen. John E. Sununu is looking to flip the seat. He’s the brother of Chris Sununu, who was recently governor of the state.
Democrats, on the other hand, have Rep. Chris Pappas looking to make the jump from the House to the Senate. Polling shows Pappas with a narrow lead over Sununu but neither candidate has a lock on the ballot yet, as voters have until Sept. 8, one of the latest primaries in the country, to formally declare them their candidate.
In Iowa, according to Cook Political Report, the Senate seat has moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after state Rep. Josh Turek won the Democratic primary early last month. He’s set to take on Rep. Ashley Hinson, a sitting GOP House member, in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican.
Races in several other states could also be competitive, including in Minnesota, Alaska and Florida.
According to Peter Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs and director of the Project on Ethics in Political Communication at George Washington University, the races in Nebraska and Montana are also of note, with mystery PACs supporting a Democrat with millions in Montana and accusations about candidates pretending to be a GOP “plant” and another who said she intends to drop out to clear the way for the independent in Nebraska.
Why is the battle so intense?
There are nine senators retiring after this term, five Republicans and four Democrats, creating 11 open seats. Democrats are defending nine incumbents and Republicans look to do the same in 15 states.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats must keep all of those nine in Congress and flip four GOP-held seats.
While it’s historically true that the party not in control typically regains power in the midterm elections in the House, Democrats hope to also flip the upper chamber, an uphill battle. However, the party is seeing an influx of energy in races across the state in an effort to limit Trump’s power in his final two years in the White House.
Meanwhile, Republicans hope they can keep control of the upper chamber as they point to some of the more extreme candidates chosen by Democratic voters in primaries, including Platner.
Trump is hoping Republicans are able to hold on in both chambers. Last summer, he kicked off a national redistricting battle, where states redrew their congressional district lines hoping to counteract Texas’ effort to boost GOP chances in House.
During Trump’s first term, Republicans lost a net of 41 seats in the House, but Republicans gained a net of 2 seats in the Senate.
Loge explained the Senate doesn’t typically flip, in part because senators represent an entire state and states are increasingly supporting just one party. In the House, states can elect both Democrats and Republicans based on congressional district — and there’s more opportunity for flips, since they’re up for reelection more frequently than the Senate.
As for some of the key races this year, the margins are really close, he said, adding that “every election matters.”
For example, Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. While Talarico has a chance, the odds are against him in the Lone Star State. That doesn’t mean he’s going to throw in the towel and let Paxton glide through.
“Even if Talarico is not going to win, if Democrats make it look competitive and raise a bunch of money, that forces Republicans to raise a bunch of money and get involved,” Loge said. “If Republicans are spending money in Texas, they’re not spending money in North Carolina or Georgia or Ohio.”
Another reason why the races are really close is that voters are proving they’re fed up with both of the major parties. They’re sending messages to the parties and Washington that they either can’t decide who to elect, or don’t like either candidate equally.
Additionally, the races are tight because voters are unhappy with how things are going. With both parties and Trump’s approval underwater, Loge said it “doesn’t take much to swing the Senate one way or the other.”
With Trump nearing the last two years of his political career, even if Democrats don’t flip the upper chamber, they’ll be celebrating getting a little closer than where they are now.
Some Republican lawmakers will be emboldened as Trump nears retirement, paving the way for him to do as much executive action as possible in the last half of his second term. Others, Loge said, may be more agreeable to Democrats as they gear up for a 2028 presidential run.
“The longer this administration goes, the less popular it becomes, and the more Republicans are going to be angling to be the next president of the United States, which means a thinner margin in the Senate with more Republicans going to cross over or sit out and the Senate begins to look much more like the House, which can’t agree on ordering lunch,” Loge said.
According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Center for Politics experts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, changes in June shifted three major races in Democrats’ favor, including the races in North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska.
The changes were more so about the “macro-level, big picture political factors.” They said the changes were made based on polling both in the Senate races but also Trump’s poor approval rating.
“These big-picture factors haven’t really changed much in recent months although, to the extent they have, they’ve gotten worse for Republicans, to the point where 2026 could be as bad for Republicans as 2018 was, or perhaps even worse,” they wrote.
With just 119 days until Election Day, the countdown and the race for control is on.
