Voters in Alaska on Tuesday will head to the poll to cast a ballot in a nonpartisan primary, a new system enacted by a passed ballot initiative in 2020.
The top four candidates will then go on to the November general election, where voters will use ranked choice voting to elect their top candidate.
Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former member of Congress, is barely ahead in the polls. She’s looking to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and polling shows she has a path to victory. If she wins come November, she would be the first Democrat elected to the upper chamber from the state since 2008.
Still, it will likely be close, especially in a state President Donald Trump won in all three of his presidential runs. But tides may be changing up North.
Plus, Sullivan has a unique challenge before him: another Dan Sullivan.
Democratic enthusiasm propels Peltola
Peltola and Democrats across the country are hoping they can either chip away at or completely flip control of the Senate in several key races.
In order to take control of the Senate, which Republicans currently control 53-47, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats, which could be an uphill battle.
According to RealClearPolitics polling average of the race in Alaska, the margin is tiny — Peltola is at 46.7% of compared to 46.3% for Sullivan.
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll ending on Aug. 5 has Peltola up by 2 percentage points over Sullivan.
On Monday, it was confirmed by The New York Times that Peltola’s campaign manager, Anton McParland, is no longer with the campaign. Other top campaign officials were being let go and it was later reported that Democratic National Committee officials were stepping in. Other voices online said the online concern just a day before the election was blown out of proportion and campaigns often go through staffing changes.
While Peltola’s past representing the state in the House likely brought her statewide attention, experts and pollsters aren’t saying she has a clear path to victory.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics lists the Alaska Senate race as a toss-up, meaning it truly could go any way and come down to just a handful of votes.
The state’s new ranked choice voting system allows voters to rank multiple candidates. If no one candidate gets a majority — about 51% — of the vote, the candidate in last place gets eliminated and then voters’ next choices are redistributed. It will happen until one candidate gets a majority.
And in this year’s race, there’s an interesting wrinkle that could complicate things.
Dan Sullivan or Dan Sullivan?
Sen. Sullivan, who has represented the state since 2014 in the upper chamber, has a big issue with another candidate in the race.
It’s another man named Dan Sullivan, also running as a Republican.
Sen. Dan S. Sullivan will appear on the ballot on Tuesday next to Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher and U.S. Forest Service employee.
Sullivan beat out the last Democrat to hold the title of senator for the state of Alaska in 2014. He’s been a reliable Republican vote and sticks largely with the GOP compared to Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who has repeatedly clashed with Trump.
With both Sullivans appearing on the ballot, Republicans and other critics say it’s a ploy to confuse voters.
Trump said Democrats were putting forward the other Dan Sullivan in some sort of “trickery.” He blamed the party for trying to trick Alaskans and “treat Alaskan Voters with contempt.”
Peltola and the Alaska Democratic Party have stated they have zero involvement or affiliation with either Dan Sullivan, per ABC News.
Dan J. Sullivan describes himself as a pragmatic Republican and said he was running because he was dissatisfied with the current senator and said his time in the Forest Service was shaken up by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, and its cuts to the federal workforce.
He described to Alaska Public Media that all 17 candidates in the race have the right to jump in and “give this a shot if we think we have something to add.”
Meanwhile, the senator’s campaign and state Republicans have tried — and failed — to get the other Sullivan kicked off the ballot.
His team has taken out Google advertisements to market himself as the “One and ONLY Dan” for Alaska.
Election Day
In June, the Alaska Division of Elections attempted to take the new Sullivan off the ballot after groups alleged he was running dishonestly. After he sued, the state Supreme Court ruled he could stay on the ballot, just with the Division of Election determining how exactly he’d be listed.
A sample ballot from the state’s Division of Elections shows the distinction between the two, noting their middle initials and highlighting the incumbent senator.
“Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.” will be listed above “Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent” on the ballot.
Voters in the state on Tuesday will see 17 names on their Senate primary ticket, including Republicans, Democrats and independents. Four candidates will advance.