With conference tournament week in full swing, the Deseret News will take a daily look through Selection Sunday at how national bracketology experts view schools from Utah in the NCAA Tournament picture.
Sunday: Selection Sunday is here, and Utah State is sweating it out
In Provo, BYU coach Mark Pope and the Cougars are waiting to find out their NCAA Tournament fate — Selection Sunday is here, and the selection show will start at 4 p.m. MT on CBS.
The same thing is happening in Logan for Utah State coach Craig Smith, though the Aggies will be sweating out the process a bit more after Utah State lost to San Diego State in Saturday’s Mountain West Conference Tournament championship.

For BYU, the question is what seed the Cougars will get. BYU is seen as a lock for an at-large spot and to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015.
Utah State, meanwhile, sits squarely on the bubble for this year’s NCAA Tournament, with national bracketologists split on whether the Aggies will fill one of the final spots in this year’s 68-team field. Two games Saturday, in addition to USU’s loss to San Diego State, played a big role in creating uncertainty for the Aggies, as Oregon State (Pac-12) and Georgetown (Big East) won their respective conference tournaments to earn unexpected automatic NCAA bids and further cut down the number of bids for bubble teams.
“Utah State, losers to San Diego State in the Mountain West title game, was taken out of the field to make room for Oregon State,” CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm said in his bracketology update Sunday morning.
There is one more potential bid stealer game to watch for Sunday:
- No. 5 Cincinnati vs. No. 2 Houston, AAC championship (1:15 p.m. MT, ESPN): Cincinnati has made an unexpected run through the American’s conference tournament and on Sunday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi said a Cincinnati win would knock USU out of the NCAA Tournament field.
So, have the Aggies done enough to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid? Their resume could be scrutinized against fellow MWC members Colorado State and Boise State, who also went into conference tournament week as bubble hopefuls.
“The Aggies (20-8, 15-4 Mountain West) came up short in the MWC tournament final vs. San Diego State, and as a result, they’ll be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Utah State’s résumé only has two Quadrant 1 victories but its NET score in the 30s and top-45 non-conference strength of schedule is better than its Mountain West counterparts also on the bubble. What’s troublesome: Utah State has two Quad 3 losses and lost to fellow bubble team Boise State twice,” USA Today’s Scott Gleason wrote.
If Utah State weren’t to make the field, the Aggies could also be a part of the NCAA’s COVID-19 contingency plan — the last four teams not selected as at-large teams will be on stand-by as replacements should any NCAA Tournament teams encounter COVID-19 issues.
Here’s where national experts have Utah schools slated in their latest bracketologys in the final hours before the selection show:
- BYU: No. 6 seed vs. the winner of No. 11 seeds Syracuse and Drake (a First Four matchup) in first round.
- Utah State: No. 11 seed vs. No. 11 Louisville in First Four game, as the Last Team In the field of 68 (Colorado State among First Four Out, Boise State among Next Four Out). In this scenario, USU would face MWC rival No. 6 San Diego State in the first round if it won the First Four game.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Wisconsin in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Colorado State among Last Four In, Boise State also among First Four Out).
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Maryland in first round.
- Utah State: No. 11 seed vs. No. 11 Drake in First Four game, among Last Four In (Boise State and Colorado State among First Four Out).
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 LSU in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Colorado State also among First Four Out).
Bonus bracket: Bracketville
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech in first round.
- Utah State: No. 11 seed vs. No. 11 Drake in First Four game, among Last Four In (Colorado State among First Four Out, Boise State among Next Four Out).
Saturday: How many MWC teams will make the NCAA Tournament field?
Utah State continued its march through the Mountain West Conference Tournament late Friday night, beating Colorado State in the semifinals, and now the Aggies find themselves being projected to make an NCAA Tournament First Four game by most bracketologists.
Up next is the championship game, against a familiar opponent.
- MWC championship: No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 2 Utah State, 4 p.m. MST (CBS). Update: San Diego State beat Utah State 68-57.
Utah State, for now, looks like an NCAA Tournament team, though there’s plenty to be decided. For other MWC teams like Colorado State and Boise State, who both entered conference tournament week as contenders for an NCAA at-large bid, the odds of making the NCAA Tournament are looking more bleak as the week has gone on. The Broncos lost in the MWC quarterfinals, their fourth straight loss.
The Rams were largely moved into the First Four Out category after falling to USU, and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Colorado State as his First Team Out.
Has all of this left the MWC as a possible one-team NCAA league, if San Diego State — seen as an NCAA lock — wins Saturday’s MWC championship?
“Let’s not overthink this. San Diego State is comfortably in the field, and it’s possible Utah State is, too, after beating Colorado State in Friday’s semifinals,” The Washington Post’s Patrick Stevens wrote. “But it wouldn’t hurt to finish the job, and there’s a long history of regular season champions falling short of a Mountain West tournament title. In the league tourney’s first 21 editions, the No. 1 seed has won just four times.”
Another thing to watch for Saturday will be bid thieves. With Selection Sunday now just one day away (the NCAA selection show is at 4 p.m. on CBS this Sunday), these Saturday games will likely factor into the NCAA at-large race, as potential bid stealers could burst the bubble for other teams:
- No. 5 Oregon State vs. No. 3 Colorado, Pac-12 championship (8:30 p.m., ESPN): The Beavers have made an impressive run to the final, including knocking off top seed Oregon on Friday, and are one win away from stealing a bid from a bubble team. Update: Oregon State beat Colorado 70-68.
- No. 8 Georgetown vs. No. 2 Creighton, Big East championship (4:30 p.m., Fox): The Hoyas, who are 12-12 on the season, already upset top seed Villanova and would be NCAA Tournament bound with another upset. Update: Georgetown beat Creighton 73-48.
- No. 5 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Wichita State (1 p.m., ESPN2), No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 2 Houston (3:30 p.m., ESPN2), AAC semifinals: Lower seeds Cincinnati and Memphis would keep their bid stealer hopes alive with wins. Update: Cincinnati beat Wichita State 60-59; Houston beat Memphis 76-74.
Taking all this into consideration, Bracketville’s Dave Ommen had this to say about Utah State’s NCAA hopes heading into the MWC championship, “They have no control what happens around them and a loss could leave them, like the others here, at significant risk.”
For teams from the state of Utah, NCAA hopes are down to BYU, considered a lock, and Utah State after Southern Utah and Utah Valley lost in their respective tournament semifinal games Friday night.
The Cougars are predicted anywhere from a No. 6 seed to a No. 8 seed by various bracketologists:
- BYU: No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 Michigan State in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 Saint Louis in First Four game, among Last Four In (Colorado State, Boise State among First Four Out).
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Wisconsin in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 UCLA in First Four game, among Last Four In (Colorado State also among Last Four In, Boise State among First Four Out).
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Note: The USA Today’s latest bubble watch did not mention USU’s late-night victory over Colorado State, which may be part of the reason why the Aggies did not move into their latest bracketology. Also, USA Today still has Southern Utah in its NCAA Tournament field despite the fact the T-Birds lost in the Big Sky semifinals on Friday evening.
Bonus bracket: The Washington Post
- BYU: No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 UCLA in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 Ole Miss in First Four game, among Last Four In (Colorado State, Boise State among First Four Out).
- What they said: “Has Utah State done enough? Given its pluckiness while winning the last two Mountain West finals, it wouldn’t be surprising if that question is moot by day’s end.” — Patrick Stevens.
Bonus bracket: Bracketville
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 St. Bonaventure in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 Saint Louis in First Four game, among Last Four In (Colorado State, Boise State among First Four Out).
Friday: Boise State’s loss is Utah State’s (marginal) gain in NCAA at-large race
Several things went right for Utah State on Thursday in the chase for an at-large NCAA Tournament spot, including the Aggies’ 74-53 win over UNLV in the Mountain West quarterfinals. Of course, that would be a moot point if USU earns the MWC’s automatic bid by winning the conference tournament.
Still, the Aggies gained some ground in the bubble race, while Boise State’s loss to Nevada in another MWC quarterfinal matchup cost the Broncos. Another bubble contender, Syracuse, lost on a buzzer-beater to Virginia, while Duke exited the ACC Tournament after a positive COVID-19 result among its tier 1 personnel — the school’s athletic director said the team’s season is over.
“Boise State lost its fourth straight and fell out of the field in favor of fellow Mountain West member Utah State, which the Broncos swept in the regular season,” said ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who moved the Aggies into his latest NCAA bracketology as the final team in the field.
Not everyone was convinced to move USU into the field after Thursday’s results. USA Today’s Scott Gleeson explained in his latest bubble watch why the Aggies are still on the outside looking in.
“The Aggies (19-7, 15-4 Mountain West) hammered UNLV 74-53 in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals to stay in consideration for an at-large bid. They’re currently on the “first four out” line because there’s only two Quad 1 wins and one Quad 2 victory on the resume,” he wrote.
As for Boise State, which remained in the NCAA Tournament field in USA Today’s latest bracketology, Gleeson added, “That setback — the third consecutive loss to the Wolf Pack — could be costly for this team that’s hanging onto a spot in the First Four. Boise State’s resume features the second best nonconference strength of schedule in the country and a NET score in the low 40s. But there are just two Quadrant 1 wins to go with a bad loss to Fresno State.”
It all sets up a crucial game for Utah State against Colorado State, another team not far from the bubble, in the MWC semifinals late Friday (10 p.m. MST, CBS Sports Network).
“Colorado State and Utah State play Friday in the MWC tournament. The winner should clinch a berth,” Sporting News’ Bill Bender wrote.
These Friday games will likely factor into the NCAA at-large race:
- Ole Miss vs. LSU, SEC quarterfinals (7 p.m., SEC Network): The Rebels beat South Carolina handily on Thursday and sit squarely on the bubble. Lunardi had Ole Miss as his First Team Out, right behind Utah State, though he mentioned the Virginia news — if they are out of the NCAAs — would bump them into the field. Update: LSU beat Ole Miss 76-73.
- Seton Hall vs. Georgetown, Big East semifinals (4 p.m., FS1): Seton Hall kept its at-large hopes alive by beating fellow bubble team St. John’s on Thursday. Update: Georgetown beat Seton Hall 66-58.
- SMU vs. Cincinnati (1 p.m., ESPN), Memphis vs. UCF (8 p.m., ESPNU), AAC quarterfinals: SMU and Memphis both have some work to do to improve their NCAA at-large chances. Update: Cincinnati beat SMU 74-71; Memphis beat UCF 70-62.
In addition to Utah State, two other Utah schools play Friday. They’re fighting for automatic bids and not at-large spots.
- Big Sky semifinals: No. 1 Southern Utah vs. No. 5 Montana State (5 p.m., Pluto TV). Update: Montana State beat Southern Utah 80-77.
- WAC semifinals: No. 2 Utah Valley vs. No. 3 New Mexico State (9 p.m., ESPN+). Update: New Mexico State beat Utah Valley 78-62.
The T-Birds beat Northern Colorado on Thursday to advance and are considered by most bracketologists to be the Big Sky automatic bid winner. The Wolverines open postseason play with their matchup against New Mexico State.
Here’s where national experts currently have Utah schools slated in their latest bracketologys:
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 VCU in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 Drake in First Four game as Last Team In (Colorado State among Last Four In, Boise State among First Four Out).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Arkansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Wichita State in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State also among First Four Out, Colorado State an 11 seed).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Arkansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Weber State: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Kansas in first round. (Note: Weber State lost its Big Sky quarterfinal game late Thursday night; Southern Utah, the No. 1 Big Sky seed, won its quarterfinal game).
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 North Carolina in first round.
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 West Virginia in first round.
Bonus bracket: Sporting News
- BYU: No. 9 seed — no first-round matchups predicted, just seeds.
- Utah State: No. 11 seed among Last Four In (Colorado State among Last Four In, Boise State among First Four Out).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed.
Thursday: This is where it starts to get interesting for USU, MWC
For all those Utah State fans out there, Thursday is full of intriguing plot lines from a bubble perspective, and they revolve mainly around the Mountain West and ACC tournaments.
The four MWC teams in serious contention for an NCAA bid all play today, with the league’s tournament quarterfinals being played. In addition to Utah State opening play against UNLV, Boise State and Colorado State — two other teams seen as bubble candidates by many experts — are also in action. Here’s what the MWC Tournament schedule looks like today:
- No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 8 Wyoming, 1 p.m. MST (CBS Sports Network). Update: San Diego State beat Wyoming 69-66.
- No. 4 Boise State vs. No. 5 Nevada, 3:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network). Update: Nevada beat Boise State 89-82.
- No. 2 Utah State vs. No. 7 UNLV, 7 p.m. (CBS Sports Network). Update: Utah State beat UNLV 74-53.
- No. 3 Colorado State vs. No. 6 Fresno State, 9:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network). Update: Colorado State beat Fresno State 72-62.
If any of the top seeds falter in the MWC today, that makes the at-large hopes in the league change significantly. Of course, if all four top seeds win, that sets up some very intriguing matchups in the semifinals.
The NCAA bubble had a significant change Thursday brought on by the pandemic, as Duke announced it is out of the ACC Tournament following a positive COVID-19 test within a member of the program’s tier 1 personnel. The Blue Devils had won two games in the conference tournament already and were set to face Florida State on Thursday.
“As a result, this will end our 2020-21 season. We wish every team still playing college basketball good health and the very best during the next few weeks,” Duke athletic director Kevin White said in a statement.
These Thursday games are most likely to impact the Aggies’ at-large hopes:
- Syracuse vs. Virginia, ACC quarterfinals (10 a.m., ESPN2): The Orange used a convincing win over N.C. State to advance, but now face top seed Virginia. Update: Syracuse lost to Virginia 72-69 on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer.
- St. John’s vs. Seton Hall, Big East quarterfinals (1 p.m., FS1): Both teams are currently projected just outside the NCAA Tournament field, and this game keeps alive the NCAA hopes of the winner and squashes those of the loser. Update: Seton Hall beat St. John’s 77-69.
- Ole Miss vs. South Carolina, SEC second round (7:25 p.m., SEC Network): The Rebels are also among the First Four Out on several bracketology lists right now, and need a win over 11th-seeded South Carolina to stay in the bubble race. Update: Ole Miss beat South Carolina 76-59.
Several bracketologists focused on the ACC following Wednesday’s action, particularly on the at-large hopes of Syracuse. The Orange are the Last Team In on ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket.
“For a perfect illustration of the truism that teams — not conferences — earn bids, we offer up Syracuse and the ACC. Both, by their generally lofty standards, have suffered through mediocre seasons,” Lunardi wrote. “But the team (Syracuse) has gotten hot at an optimal time and the conference is somehow turning its lack of high-quality teams into a quantity of midlevel NCAA bids. The Orange, almost inconceivably, are the eighth ACC team in the projected field.”
It’s also going to be a busy day for Utah schools, as three others play Thursday:
- Pac-12 quarterfinals: No. 2 USC vs. No. 7 Utah, 6:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks). Update: USC beat Utah 91-85 in double overtime.
- Big Sky quarterfinals: No. 1 Southern Utah vs. No. 8 Northern Colorado, 11 a.m. (Pluto TV). Update: Southern Utah beat Northern Colorado 91-83.
- Big Sky quarterfinals: No. 3 Weber State vs. No. 6 Montana, 8 p.m. (Pluto TV). Update: Montana beat Weber State 80-75.
The Utes held on to beat Washington in the Pac-12 first round to advance, and now face a Trojans team they beat late in the regular season. SUU and Weber State’s campaign for the Big Sky’s automatic NCAA bid begins today. The T-Birds are facing Northern Colorado for the first time this year — their regular-season series was canceled by the pandemic — while the Wildcats split their season series with Montana in what could be the best game of the day in the Big Sky quarterfinals.
Here’s where national experts currently have Utah schools slated in their latest bracketologys:
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: First Team Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Arkansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Wichita State in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State among Last Four In).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Texas in first round.
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Weber State: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Kansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 North Carolina in first round.
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 West Virginia in first round.
Bonus bracket: Bleacher Report
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech in first round.
- Utah State: No. 12 seed vs. No. 12 Syracuse in First Four game (Colorado State in, Boise State first team out).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Houston in first round.
- What they said: “They will now face either UNLV or Air Force to likely draw Colorado State in the MWC semifinals. Win the first and at least put up a good fight in the second and Utah State has a chance.” — Kerry Miller.
Wednesday: BYU’s NCAA position and what USU fans should watch
The Cougars gave top-ranked Gonzaga one of its toughest tests of the season before falling 88-78 to the Zags in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game. The Bulldogs stayed the No. 1 overall seed in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, while BYU earned either a No. 7 or No. 8 seed in most bracketology updates following the title game. Now, the Cougars must wait until Selection Sunday to find out their NCAA Tournament fate.
Utah State won’t start its Mountain West Conference tournament play until Thursday, but there are several games of importance on Wednesday for the Aggies, who are seen as one of the last few teams on the outside of the tournament. USU’s quarterfinal opponent will be the winner of Wednesday’s first-game game between UNLV and Air Force (2:30 p.m. MST, Mountain West Network).
These Wednesday games could impact USU’s bubble hopes:
- Syracuse vs. N.C. State, ACC second round (10 a.m., ACC Network): Like USU, Syracuse is seen as a bubble team and could bolster its NCAA resume with a strong run at the ACC tournament. Update: Syracuse beat N.C. State 89-68.
- Xavier vs. Butler, Big East first round (4 p.m., FS1): The Musketeers are squarely on the bubble — Lunardi has them as his last team in — and Xavier has lost 5 of 7 since a hot start to the season. Update: Xavier lost to Butler 70-69 in overtime.
- Duke vs. Louisville, ACC second round (4:30 p.m., ACC Network): The Blue Devils need a long ACC tourney run to be considered for the NCAAs, while Louisville is a projected team in the field, though not far from First Four game consideration. Update: Duke beat Louisville 70-56.
While Southern Utah and Weber State don’t start play in the Big Sky tournament until Thursday, their quarterfinal opponents will be determined today. The T-Birds will face Northern Colorado — a 90-83 winner over Sacramento State in Wednesday’s early game — while the Wildcats will face Montana, 69-64 winner over Idaho.
Here’s where national experts currently have Utah schools slated in their latest bracketologys:
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: First Team Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Arkansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Wichita State in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State among Last Four In).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Texas in first round.
- BYU: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 Rutgers in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four Out (Boise State and Colorado State among Last Four In).
- Weber State: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 Kansas in first round.
- BYU: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 North Carolina in first round.
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 West Virginia in first round.
Bonus bracket: The Washington Post
- BYU: No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 Michigan State in first round.
- Utah State: Among First Four On The Outside (along with Boise State and Colorado State).
- Southern Utah: No. 14 seed vs. No. 3 West Virginia in first round.
- What they said: “BYU looked fabulous for 20 minutes against Gonzaga in the WCC final, but the scoreboard grades on a 40-minute curve. Expect the Cougars to end up as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed come Sunday.” — Patrick Stevens.